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Effect of vaccinations and school restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in different age groups in Germany

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1250-1264页

作者： Christiane Dings Dominik Selzer Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Eva Mohler Markus Wenning Thomas Gehrke Ulf Richter Alexandra Nonnenmacher folke brinkmann Tobias Rothoeft Michael Zemlin Thomas Lücke Thorsten Lehr Department of Clinical Pharmacy Saarland University66123SaarbrückenGermany Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Saarland University Hospital66421HomburgGermany Medical Association Westfalen-Lippe48151MünsterGermany School of Education and Psychology Siegen University57072SiegenGermany University Children's Hospital Ruhr University44791BochumGermany University Children's Hospital Airway Research Center North(ARCN)German Center for Lung Research(DZL)LübeckGermany Department of General Pediatrics and Neonatology Saarland University Hospital66421HomburgGermany

With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2,various non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted to control virus transmission,including school ***,the introduction of vaccines mitigated not only disease severity but also the spread of *** study leveraged an adapted SIR model and non-linear mixed-effects modeling to quantify the impact of remote learning,school holidays,the emergence of Variants of Concern(VOCs),and the role of vaccinations in controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread across 16 German federal states with an age-stratified *** highlight a significant inverse correlation(Spearman's ρ=0.92,p<0.001)between vaccination rates and peak incidence rates across all age ***-parameter estimation using the observed number of cases stratified by federal state and age allowed to assess the effects of school closure and holidays,considering adjustments for vaccinations and spread of VOCs over ***,modeling revealed significant(p<0.001)differences in the virus's spread among pre-school children(0-4),children(5-11),adolescents(12-17),adults(18-59),and the elderly(60+).The transition to remote learning emerged as a critical measure in significantly reducing infection rates among children and adolescents(p<0.001),whereas an increased infection risk was noted among the elderly during these periods,suggesting a shift in infection networks due to altered caregiving ***,during school holiday periods,infection rates among adolescents mirrored those observed when schools were *** exercises based on the model provided evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations might serve a dual purpose:they protect the vaccinated individuals and contribute to the broader community's safety.

关键词： COVID-19 Vaccination Non-pharmaceutical interventions Age Mathematical modeling

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