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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 689-700页

作者： Kaijing Chen fengying wei Xinyan Zhang Hao Jin Zuwen Wang Yue Zuo Kai Fan School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinzhou121000LiaoningChina

The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions,vaccinations,and hosts for all epidemics in China's Mainland during the spread of ***,the small-scale epidemic in the city described by SVEIR model was less found in the current *** SVEIR model with control was established to analyze the dynamical and epidemiological features of two epidemics in Jinzhou City led by Omicron variants before and after Twenty *** this study,the total population(N)of Jinzhou City was divided into five compartments:the susceptible(S),the vaccinated(V),the exposed(E),the infected(I),and the recovered(R).By surveillance data and the SVEIR model,three methods(maximum likelihood method,exponential growth rate method,next generation matrix method)were governed to estimate basic reproduction number,and the results showed that an increasing tendency of basic reproduction number from Omicron BA.5.2 to Omicron ***,the effective reproduction number for two epidemics were investigated by surveillance data,and the results showed that Jinzhou wave 1 reached the peak on November 1 and was controlled 7 days later,and that Jinzhou wave 2 reached the peak on November 28 and was controlled 5 days ***,the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions(awareness delay,peak delay,control intensity)were discussed extensively,the variations of infection scales for Omicron variant and EG.5 variant were also ***,the investigations on peaks and infection scales for two epidemics in dynamic zero-COVID policy were operated by the SVEIR model with *** investigations on public medical requirements of Jinzhou City and Liaoning Province were analyzed by using SVEIR model without control,which provided a possible perspective on variant evolution in the future.

关键词： COVID-19 SVEIR model Twenty measures Control strategy Variant evolution

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An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 728-743页

作者： Xiaomin Lan Guangmin Chen Ruiyang Zhou Kuicheng Zheng Shaojian Cai fengying wei Zhen Jin Xuerong Mao School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou350012FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Complex Models Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan030006ShanxiChina Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of StrathclydeGlasgowG11XHUK

The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number,effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this ***,by using of the next generation matrix method,basic reproduction number R0 of the total population was estimated as 1.57 using parameter values of four age groups of Fuzhou COVID-19 large *** age group k,the values of R_(0k)(age group k to age group k),the values of R_(o)^(k)(an infected of age group k to the total population)and the values of R_(o)^(k)>R_(0k)>R_(o)^(k)(an infected of the total population to age group k)were also estimated,in which the explorations of the impacts of age groups revealed that the relationship was ***,the fluctuating tendencies of effective reproduction number Rt were demonstrated by using two approaches(the surveillance data and the SEIHR model)for Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave,during which high-risk group(G4 group)mainly contributed the infection scale due to high susceptibility to infection and high risks to basic ***,the sensitivity analysis using two approaches(the sensitivity index and the PRCC values)revealed that susceptibility to infection of age groups played the vital roles,while the numerical simulation showed that infection scale varied with the changes of social contacts of age *** results of this study claimed that the high-risk group out of the total population was concerned by the local government with the highest susceptibility to infection against *** This study verified that the partition structure of age groups of the total population,the susceptibility to infection of age groups,the social contacts among age groups were the important contributors of infection *** less social contacts and adequate hospital beds for high-risk group were profitable to control the spread of *** avoid the emergence of medical runs against new variant in the future,the polic

关键词： COVID-19 model Age group Omicron BA.5.2 variant Contact matrixSocial contact

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Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2024年第2期6卷 67-75页

作者： Ruiyang Zhou Shaojian Cai Guangmin Chen Senzhong Huang Zhen Jin Zhihang Peng weichuan Lin fengying wei Kuicheng Zheng School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou 350012FujianChina School of Statistics and Data Science ZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030006ShanxiChina Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166JiangsuChina School of Mathematics and Statistics Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research Fuzhou 350001FujianChina Teaching Base of the School of Public Health of Fujian Medical University Fuzhou 350001FujianChina

The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this *** surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of *** optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario *** scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta ***,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth *** tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic *** study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two *** interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

关键词： COVID-19 SVEIR model Transmission dynamics Non-pharmaceutical interventions Delta variant Omicron variant

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Globally asymptotic stability of a predator-prey model with stage structure incorporating prey refuge

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2016年第4期9卷 155-168页

作者： fengying wei QiuyueFu College of Mathematics and Computer ScienceFuzhou University Fuzhou 350116 P. R. China

This paper focuses on the stabilities of the equilibria to a predator-prey model with stage structure incorporating prey refuge. By analyzing the characteristic functions, we obtain that the equilibria of the model are locally stable when some suitable conditions are being satisfied. According to the comparison theorem and iteration technique, the globally asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium is discussed. And, the sufficient conditions of the global stability to the trivial equilibrium and the boundary equilibrium are derived. The study shows that the prey refuge will enhance the density of the prey species, and it will decrease the density of predator species. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to show the efficiency of our main results.

关键词： Predator-prey model stability stage structure equilibrium.

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“两弹一星”精神在青海中小学育人教育中的实践路径探索

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高原文化研究 2024年第1期2卷 27-33页

作者：魏凤英任雅然青海师范大学教育学院青海西宁810008

推进爱国主义教育是落实立德树人根本任务的内在要求与应有之义。“两弹一星”精神是爱国主义教育的重要内容之一,青海省是“两弹一星”伟大精神的发源地,具备丰富的教育资源。而青少年阶段是形成世界观、人生观、价值观的重要时期,因此... 详细信息

推进爱国主义教育是落实立德树人根本任务的内在要求与应有之义。“两弹一星”精神是爱国主义教育的重要内容之一,青海省是“两弹一星”伟大精神的发源地,具备丰富的教育资源。而青少年阶段是形成世界观、人生观、价值观的重要时期,因此,因地制宜地提出“两弹一星”精神在青海中小学育人教育中的实践路径,具有重要的育人价值和激励作用,对培养新时代社会主义建设者和接班人具有重要意义。基于大中小学思政课一体化的整体视域,从学生成长发展规律出发,以不同学段对象的特点和教育目标为依据,在中小学思政教育中加强“两弹一星”精神教育。通过加强中小学生对“两弹一星”人物故事和精神的基本认知,升华中小学生的爱国主义、集体主义情感,促进中小学生形成高尚的三观,提高“两弹一星”精神教育的目的性和有效性,充分发挥本土伟大精神对中小学生的育人价值和功能。

关键词： “两弹一星”精神爱国主义集体主义思政课一体化

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Study on a susceptible—infec ted—vaccina ted model with delay and proportional vaccination

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International Journal of Biomathematics 2018年第8期11卷 131-149页

作者： Shuqi Gan fengying wei College of Mathematics and Computer Science Fuzhou University Fuzhou 350116 P. R. China Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou University Fuzhou 350116 P. R. China

A susceptible-infected-vaccinated epidemic model with proportional vaccination and generalized nonlinear rate is formulated and investigated in the paper. We show that the stochastic epidemic model admits a unique and global positive solution with probability one when constructing a proper C2-function therewith. Then a sufficient condition that guarantees the disappearances of diseases is derived when the indicator R0 1, then we obtain that the solution is weakly permanent with probability one. We also derived the sufficient conditions of the persistence in the mean for the susceptible and infected when another indicator R0> 1.

关键词： Stochastic epidemic model delay extinction persistence in the mean

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Interdecadal variation of East Asian summer monsoon and drought/flood distribution over eastern China in the last 159 years

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2011年第4期21卷 579-593页

作者： LI Qian wei fengying LI Dongliang Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China State Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure （SLP） during 1850-2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon on the distribution of drought/flood over eastern China in the last 159 years is researched. The results show that there are four typical drought and flood spatial distribution patterns in eastern China, i.e. the distribution of drought/flood in southern China is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood along the Huanghe River–Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it, the distribution of drought/flood along the Yangtze River Valley and Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood in eastern China is contrary to the western. The main distribution pattern of SLP in summer is that the strength of SLP is opposite in Asian continent and West Pacific. It has close relationship between the interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution patterns over eastern China and the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon which was defined in this paper, but the correlation is not stable and it has a significant difference in changes of interdecadal phase. When the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger （weaker）, regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was more susceptible to drought （flood）, the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were more susceptible to flood （drought） before the 1920s; when the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger （weaker）, the regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was prone to flood （drought）, the

关键词： eastern China drought/flood distribution East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal variation

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Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background

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Science China Earth Sciences 2010年第10期53卷 301-316页

作者： fengying wei Ting Zhang Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci State Key Lab Severe Weather Beijing 100081 Peoples R China

Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley during the same period,using the wavelet transform and generalized extreme distribution ***,we studied the climate background of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM),Sea Surface Temperature (SST),East Asia telecorrelation circulation,and their relationship with the interannual and interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River *** further compared the difference of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation and the relevant climate background between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze *** results show that:1) The intensity change of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is consistent with that of interdecadal *** summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has been more than normal since the end of the 1990s,and the QBO is very ***,the probability of occurrence of extreme heavy rainfall increased obviously.2) The interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley has a close relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and interdecadal oscillation of *** PDO is in the cold phase and EASM weakens,the summer precipitation will be greater than normal.3) QBO of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley is mainly controlled by that of EASM,and it has a relationship with a circulation pattern of "positive-negative-positive" from the high to the low latitudes in East Asia.4) There is interdecadal phase difference in summer precipitation between the Huaihe River valley and the middle and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,which is mainly related to the intensity and position

关键词： Huaihe River valley summer precipitation quasi-biennial oscillation interdecadal oscillation climate background

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An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in China

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第3期17卷 280-288页

作者： wei fengying (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in China for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.

关键词： rainfall-band pattern interannual variation interdecadal variation integration estimation model.

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家长焦虑情绪对西部青少年心理健康状况的影响:家庭亲密度与家长生活满意度的链式中介效应

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中国健康心理学杂志 2024年第5期32卷 698-704页

作者：关雅欣魏凤英周文丽乔洁钰青海师范大学教育学院(西宁) 810008 高原科学与可持续发展研究院

目的:探索家长焦虑情绪对西部青少年心理健康状况的影响及家长生活满意度与家庭亲密度在其中的中介作用。方法:采用问卷整群抽样法,对随机选取的初中、高中1590名学生与其家长进行问卷调查。结果:①西部青少年心理健康(2.26±0.70)状况... 详细信息

目的:探索家长焦虑情绪对西部青少年心理健康状况的影响及家长生活满意度与家庭亲密度在其中的中介作用。方法:采用问卷整群抽样法,对随机选取的初中、高中1590名学生与其家长进行问卷调查。结果:①西部青少年心理健康(2.26±0.70)状况存在轻度问题的青少年占45.8%;存在中等问题的青少年占14.5%;存在严重问题的青少年占1.1%。②家长焦虑情绪、西部青少年心理健康状况、家长生活满意度、家庭亲密度总均分两两之间均呈正相关;③中介模型检验表明,家长焦虑情绪可直接正向预测西部青少年心理健康状况,直接效应量为0.04;家庭亲密度在家长焦虑情绪与青少年心理健康之间起中介作用,中介效应量为0.004;家长生活满意度在家长焦虑情绪与青少年心理健康之间起中介作用,中介效应量为0.005;且家庭亲密度-生活满意度的链式中介作用也显著,中介效应量为0.001。结论:家长焦虑情绪不仅可以直接预测西部青少年心理健康状况,还可以通过家庭亲密度的中介作用、家长生活满意度的中介作用及家庭亲密度和生活满意度的链式中介作用间接预测青少年心理健康状况。

关键词：西部青少年家长焦虑情绪家长生活满意度青少年心理健康家庭亲密度

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