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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG fangxing fan Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and continents.The consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal winter.In this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North America.Despite some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming trend.Specifically,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since 1991.Moreover,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第12期33卷 1351-1360页

作者： Feng XUE fangxing fan International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Nifia years with a similar sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the westem Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.

关键词： western Pacific subtropical high late summer tropical circulation high latitude circulation warm pool convection

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Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during El Nino Developing Summer in Comparison with Decaying Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第3期35卷 360-367页

作者： Feng XUE Xiao DONG fangxing fan International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The anomalous behavior of the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） in E1 Nifio developing summer is studied based on the composite results of eight major E1 Nifio events during 1979-2013. It is shown that the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards with weak intensity during the developing summer. The anomaly exhibits an intraseasonal variation with a weaker anomaly in June and July and a stronger anomaly in August, indicating that different underlying physical mechanisms may be responsible for the anomalous WPSH during early and late summer periods. In June and July, owing to the cold advection anomaly characterized as a weak northerly anomaly from high latitudes, geopotential height in East Asia is reduced and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards slightly. By contrast, enhanced convection over the warm pool in August makes the atmosphere more sensitive to E1 Nifio forcing. Consequently, a cyclonic anomaly in the western Pacific is induced, which is consistent with the seasonal march of atmospheric circulation from July to August. Accordingly, geopotential height in the western Pacific is reduced significantly, and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards remarkably in August. Different from the developing summer, geopotential height in the decaying summer over East Asia and the western Pacific tends to enhance and extend northwards from June to August consistently, reaching the maximum anomaly in August. Therefore, the seasonal march plays an important role in the WPSH anomaly for both the developing and decaying summer.

关键词： western Pacific subtropical high El Nifio developing summer decaying summer seasonal march

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Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第1期38卷 12-28页

作者： fangxing fan Renping LIN Xianghui fanG Feng XUE Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Based on observational and reanalysis data,the relationships between the eastern Pacific(EP)and central Pacific(CP)types of El Niño−Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)are examined.The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s.While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically,the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s.The drought-producing El Niño warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line.Accordingly,compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent,leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions.Moreover,anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Niño and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Niño,may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods,respectively.El Niño events with the same“flavor”may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies,while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Niño,implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific.

关键词： South Asian summer monsoon ENSO moisture flux convergence−divergence El Niño developing summer multidecadal modulation

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基于运动学标定和空间插值的机器人定位误差补偿

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电子测量技术 2024年第4期47卷 51-57页

作者：邹方星范百兴陈哲战略支援部队信息工程大学地理空间信息学院郑州450001

绝对定位精度是衡量机器人性能的重要指标。为提升工业机器人的绝对定位精度,提出一种融合运动学标定和空间插值的定位误差分级标定的方法。首先基于D-H法建立机器人运动学模型,运用微分运动学理论建立机器人末端位置误差模型,结合IGG3... 详细信息

绝对定位精度是衡量机器人性能的重要指标。为提升工业机器人的绝对定位精度,提出一种融合运动学标定和空间插值的定位误差分级标定的方法。首先基于D-H法建立机器人运动学模型,运用微分运动学理论建立机器人末端位置误差模型,结合IGG3权因子函数采用抗差岭估计辨识了运动学参数。而后基于机器人定位误差空间相似性特点,采用空间插值法对剩余误差进行补偿。最后通过实验对所提出的方法进行了验证。结果表明:机器人定位误差RMS值由补偿前的0.812 mm减小为0.049 mm,精度提高了93.97%。该方法能够有效减小机器人的绝对定位误差,提高定位精度。

关键词：工业机器人分级标定抗差岭估计反距离权重插值

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House dust mite allergens and nitrated products: Identification and risk assessment in indoor dust

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第2期124卷 198-204页

作者： fan Xu Jingyi Tian fangxing Yang Key Laboratory of Environment Remediation and Ecological Health Ministry of EducationCollege of Natural Resources and Environmental ScienceZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310058China

Air pollutants can potentially lead to nitration of allergic proteins,thus promoting sensitization of these allergens.However,little is currently known about the nitration status of house dust mite(HDM)allergens.We identified the occurrence of nitrated products of two major HDM allergens Der f 1 and Der p 1 in dust samples collected from college dormitories in eastern China and assessed their associated health risk.The results showed that both non-nitrated and nitrated forms of the two allergens were detected in the dust in the range of non-detected(ND)-10.6,1.44-15.4,ND-22.4,ND-7.28μg/g for non-nitrated Der f 1,nitrated Der f 1,non-nitrated Der p 1 and nitrated Der p 1,respectively.The median rates of nitration were determined as 74.0%for Der f 1 and 20.4% for Der p 1 at consideration of one nitration site.Further analysis reveals that the levels of HDM allergens and their nitrated products were found to be generally higher during winter,in dormitories of lower altitude and with female occupants.Furthermore,the calculated risk indexes were at considerably high levels.Our findings suggest that nitrated HDM allergens have already accumulated in the environment at such significant levels and their associated health risk calls for our immediate attention.

关键词： Allergen Air pollution Health risk House dust mite(HDM) Nitration

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西太平洋暖池对流三类显著月际变化及其成因

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气候与环境研究 2020年第2期25卷 113-124页

作者：薛峰范方兴苏同华中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029 福建省气象科学研究所福州350001

基于1979~2018年观测的向外长波辐射(outgoing longwave radiation,OLR)资料和其他多种再分析资料,发现西太平洋暖池对流存在3类显著的月际变化。第一类为OLR在6月和8月为负异常而7月为正异常;第二类与第一类完全相反;第三类为OLR在6~7... 详细信息

基于1979~2018年观测的向外长波辐射(outgoing longwave radiation,OLR)资料和其他多种再分析资料,发现西太平洋暖池对流存在3类显著的月际变化。第一类为OLR在6月和8月为负异常而7月为正异常;第二类与第一类完全相反;第三类为OLR在6~7月为正异常,8月为负异常。3类月际变化与ENSO循环的背景有关,前两类发生在较弱的La Nina年和El Nino发展年,与春季暖池海温异常有关。当前一个月海温偏高时,后一个月对流偏强,造成局地海温降低,偏低的海温又反过来抑制了后一个月的对流发展,因此暖池地区局地海气相互作用在这两类月际变化中起到关键作用。与前两类不同的是,第三类月际变化发生在El Nino衰减年,与春季热带印度洋海温偏高有关。热带印度洋海温偏高造成印度附近对流在6~7月间增强,通过东传Kelvin波抑制了暖池对流发展。同时,印度附近对流偏强造成8月印度洋海温降低和对流减弱,对暖池对流的影响因而减弱。另一方面,6~7月暖池对流偏弱造成8月暖池海温升高,结果造成暖池对流增强。因此,第三类月际变化受到热带印度洋强迫以及暖池地区局地海气相互作用的共同影响。

关键词：暖池对流月际变化局地海气相互作用热带印度洋 ENSO

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西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的成因及其预测意义

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气候与环境研究 2021年第3期26卷 239-249页

作者：薛峰董啸范方兴中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029

基于1979~2018年观测向外长波辐射资料和其他多种再分析资料,研究了西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的原因。合成分析结果表明,由于La Niña影响造成春季暖池海温偏高,为6月暖池对流增强提供了热力基础,而大气内部扰动特别是热带西风增强能从动... 详细信息

基于1979~2018年观测向外长波辐射资料和其他多种再分析资料,研究了西太平洋暖池6月对流增强的原因。合成分析结果表明,由于La Niña影响造成春季暖池海温偏高,为6月暖池对流增强提供了热力基础,而大气内部扰动特别是热带西风增强能从动力上影响到6月对流的发展。此外,6月对流增强通过局地海气相互作用持续影响到7~8月的对流变化,导致暖池对流形成显著的季节内振荡,因此6月对流增强对其后月份对流异常变化有重要的预测意义。1984年6月的个例分析表明,热带西风增强能导致暖池对流发展,二者存在明确的超前滞后关系。与此相反,虽然1989年是一个强La Niña年,春季暖池海温也偏高,但由于6月热带西风偏弱,暖池对流难以发展,夏季对流的季节内振荡也不显著。因此,6月暖池对流增强受到前期海温偏高和大气扰动的共同作用。另一方面,暖池对流偏强与偏弱并非一种完全反对称关系,暖池对流偏弱还受到其他因子的影响。

关键词：暖池对流 La Niña 暖池海温大气扰动季节内振荡

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一种工具坐标系标定与公共点结合的机器人与激光跟踪仪坐标转换方法

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大地测量与地球动力学 2024年第1期44卷 46-51,62页

作者：邹方星范百兴陈哲段童虎黄赫信息工程大学地理空间信息学院郑州市450001

机器人标定需要实现测量坐标系与机器人坐标系的配准关联,得到两者之间的转换关系。为克服传统基于轴线矢量坐标系转换方法操作复杂、拟合精度不高等缺点,提出一种工具坐标系标定与公共点转换相结合的解算方法。首先基于距离约束标定出... 详细信息

机器人标定需要实现测量坐标系与机器人坐标系的配准关联,得到两者之间的转换关系。为克服传统基于轴线矢量坐标系转换方法操作复杂、拟合精度不高等缺点,提出一种工具坐标系标定与公共点转换相结合的解算方法。首先基于距离约束标定出光学靶标球中心相对于末端法兰坐标系的位置参数,而后通过重心化配置降低测量误差对坐标转换的影响,最后基于公共点转换采用三维七参数模型求解坐标转换齐次矩阵。实验结果表明,相比于基于轴线矢量坐标系转换的传统拟合方法,该方法的点位综合MAE减小35.44%,坐标转换精度更高,且操作方法简单,适合工业现场使用。

关键词：工业机器人激光跟踪仪公共点转换距离约束坐标系转换

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基于RANSAC算法的工业机器人运动学参数标定

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测绘工程 2024年第4期33卷 9-15页

作者：邹方星范百兴陈哲信息工程大学地理空间信息学院郑州450001

为提升工业机器人末端绝对定位精度,文中提出一种基于RANSAC算法的运动学参数标定算法。首先采用D-H模型建立末端位置运动学误差模型;通过RANSAC算法对标定点集进行筛选,剔除误差较大的粗差点;最后采用抗差岭估计辨识运动学参数,减少测... 详细信息

为提升工业机器人末端绝对定位精度,文中提出一种基于RANSAC算法的运动学参数标定算法。首先采用D-H模型建立末端位置运动学误差模型;通过RANSAC算法对标定点集进行筛选,剔除误差较大的粗差点;最后采用抗差岭估计辨识运动学参数,减少测量扰动、粗差和法方程病态性等因素的影响。试验结果表明,机器人绝对定位精度的RMS误差由0.999 mm降低至0.229 mm,误差下降77.08%。相比于传统的标定算法,文中算法辨识运动学参数准确性更好,标定精度更高。

关键词：运动学参数标定随机采样一致算法抗差岭估计

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