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Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China

Journal of Environmental Sciences 2014年第8期26卷 1631-1640页

作者： Yun Zhou fanghua hao Wei Meng Jiafeng Fu School of Environment Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences

China＇s increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution,but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China＇s primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China＇s transition to low-carbon development,three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO2 emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System（LEAP） model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product（GDP） growth rate of 6.45%,total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%,48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual（BaU）,Carbon Reduction（CR）and Integrated Low Carbon Economy（ILCE） scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 6.7 billion tons in 2009 to 9.5,11,11.6 and11.2 billion tons; 8.2,9.2,9.6 and 9 billion tons; 7.1,7.4,7.2 and 6.4 billion tons in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 under the BaU,CR and ILCE scenarios,respectively. Total CO2 emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050,compared with the BaU *** realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions,China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency,optimization of energy structure,deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

关键词： Energy consumption Environmental pollution Climate change Low-carbon development

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Vegetation phenology and its ecohydrological implications from individual to global scales

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Geography and Sustainability 2022年第4期3卷 334-338页

作者： Shouzhi Chen Yongshuo H.Fu fanghua hao Xiaoyan Li Sha Zhou Changming Liu Jing Tang College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Central China Normal UniversityWuhan 430079China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Water Cycle and Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund UniversitySölvegatan 12SE-22362LundSweden Terrestrial Ecology Section Department of BiologyUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagen DK-2100Denmark

The Earth is experiencing unprecedented climate *** phenology has already showed strong response to the global warming,which alters mass and energy fluxes on terrestrial *** technology and method developments in remote sensing,computer science and citizen science,many recent phenology-related studies have been focused on *** this perspective,we 1)reviewed the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change and its impacts on carbon cycling,and reported that the effect of shifted phenology on the terrestrial carbon fluxes is substantially different between spring and autumn;2)elaborated how vegetation phenology affects ecohydrological processes at different scales,and further listed the key issues for each scale,i.e.,focusing on seasonal effect,local feedbacks and regional vapor transport for individual,watershed and global respectively);3)envisioned the potentials to improve current hydrological models by coupling vegetation phenology-related processes,in combining with machine learning,deep learning and scale transformation *** propose that comprehensive understanding of climate-macrophenology-hydrology interactions are essential and urgently needed for enhancing our understanding of the ecosystem response and its role in hydrological cycle under future climate change.

关键词： Global warming Marcophenology Carbon balance Ecohydrology

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Spatial impacts of climate factors on regional agricultural and forestry biomass resources in north-eastern province of China

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2016年第4期10卷 91-104页

作者： Wenyan Wang Wei Ouyang fanghua hao Yun Luan Bo Hu School of Environment State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Beijing Zhongchi Green Energy and Environmental Technology Co. Ltd. Golden Resources Office Building Beijing 100097 China The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China Beijing 100038 China Department of Soil and Water Conservation Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute Wuhan 430019 China

The dynamics of agricultural and forestry biomass are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in high latitude regions. Heilongjiang Province was selected as research area in North-east China. We explored the trend of regional climate warming and distribution feature of biomass resources, and then analyzed on the spatial relationship between climate factors and biomass resources. Net primary productivity （NPP） is one of the key indicators of vegetation productivity, and was simulated as base data to calculate the distribution of agricultural and forestry biomass. The results show that temperatures rose by up to 0.37℃/10a from 1961 to 2013. Spatially, the variation of agricultural biomass per unit area changed from -1.93 to 5.85 ***^-2.a^-1 during 2000,2013. More than 85% of farmland areas showed a positive relationship *** agricultural biomass and precipitation. The results suggest that precipitation exerts an overwhelming climate influence on agricultural biomass. The mean density of forestry biomass varied from 10 to 30 t·km^-2. Temperature had a significant negative effect on forestry biomass in Lesser Khingan and northern Changbai Mountain, because increased temperature leads to decreased Rubisco activity and increased respiration in these areas. Precipitation had a significant positive relationship with forestry biomass in south-western Changbai Mountain, because this area had a wanner climate and stress from insufficient precipitation may induce xylem cavitation. Understanding the effects of climate factors on regional biomass resources is of great significance in improving environmental management and promoting sustainable development of further biomass resource use.

关键词： Biomass resourcesNet primary productivity (NPP)Climate change Heilongjiang Province China

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Characterization of phosphorus species and modeling for its organic forms in eutrophic shallow lake sediments, North China

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2014年第6期8卷 905-921页

作者： Hongguang CHENG Xiao PU Yiting CHEN fanghua hao Liming DONG School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Variations of phosphorus （P） and its species in surface sediment of Baiyangdian Lake, a eutrophic shallow lake located in North China, were investigated through combination of field survey and numerical calculation based on cluster analysis. P fractionation was performed by a sequential extraction scheme, categorized as loosely bound P （NH4Cl-P）, reductant soluble P （BD-P）, metallic oxide bound P （NaOH-P）, calcium bound P （HCl-P） and organic P （Org-P）. P concentrations exhibited regional similarities and a total of four sub-areas were identified in which the same rank was HCl-P 〉 Org-P 〉 BD-P ,=NaOH-P 〉NH4Cl-E NH4Cl-P, BD-P and Org-P were found to contribute to P enrichment in overlying water column. Specifically, labile Org-P acted as a potential pool with a greater contribution in aerobic layer compared to anaerobic layer. A hysteresis （lag = 4 months） existed when labile Org-P concentration was negatively correlated with aerobic layer thickness. In view of magnitude of identified P contributors in sub-areas, higher potential of P release was present in Fuhe River and Tang River estuary areas. On the basis of calibration and verification, the mathematical model with parameter settings applied in this study was improved to serve as a tool for limnology management and eutrophic control.

关键词： phosphorus fractionation variation characteristics modeling sediment Baiyangdian Lake

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滦河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播特征及风险分析

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水利学报 2022年第2期53卷 165-175页

作者：张璇许杨郝芳华郝增超北京师范大学水科学研究院城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室北京100875 北京师范大学中国绿色发展协同创新中心北京100875

干旱是一种复杂的自然灾害,气象干旱可能导致水文干旱等灾害,严重影响社会经济发展。探明气象干旱向水文干旱传播的特征及规律,可为减小干旱损失、保障流域供水用水安全提供技术支持。本文基于滦河山区1960—2017年的气象水文数据,应用... 详细信息

干旱是一种复杂的自然灾害,气象干旱可能导致水文干旱等灾害,严重影响社会经济发展。探明气象干旱向水文干旱传播的特征及规律,可为减小干旱损失、保障流域供水用水安全提供技术支持。本文基于滦河山区1960—2017年的气象水文数据,应用游程原理识别气象水文干旱事件,甄别二者间的传播特征,并借助Copula模型评估气象干旱向水文干旱的风险和干旱传播的临界关系。结果表明:(1)在1960—2017年期间,与气象干旱事件相比,水文干旱事件具有频率低、历时长、峰值低的特点;(2)滦河地区气象干旱和水文干旱传播关系以单场气象干旱向单场水文干旱传播为主;(3)气象干旱向水文干旱的传播存在明显的滞后效应,从上游至下游地区干旱滞后时间依次增长;(4)Gumbel Copula函数能够更准确地评估该流域干旱传播风险,结果显示上游地区发生干旱传播的风险低于下游地区,上、下游地区气象干旱发展成水文干旱的临界历时分别为0.93个月和1.26个月,临界峰值强度分别为0.66和0.44。本研究可为评价不同干旱事件间的传播与演变关系,构建流域干旱风险评价模型提供新思路。

关键词：气象干旱水文干旱干旱传播 Copula函数临界条件

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价值·路径·体系:中国式现代化进程中的双碳教育

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华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版） 2023年第1期62卷 1-10页

作者：郝芳华华中师范大学湖北武汉430079

生态文明是人类社会的高等级文明形态,也是全面建成社会主义现代化强国的基本内涵。实现碳达峰碳中和是生态文明建设的重要内容,也是构建人与自然生命共同体的必然要求。碳达峰碳中和教育着眼促进绿色发展,对于实现双碳目标具有主流价... 详细信息

生态文明是人类社会的高等级文明形态,也是全面建成社会主义现代化强国的基本内涵。实现碳达峰碳中和是生态文明建设的重要内容,也是构建人与自然生命共同体的必然要求。碳达峰碳中和教育着眼促进绿色发展,对于实现双碳目标具有主流价值引导、科技成果创新、人才队伍培育、产业结构重塑等作用,构成涵养生态文明不可或缺的重要环节。双碳教育必须坚持习近平生态文明思想指导,积极回应双碳目标新要求,构建党政学企联动、职普科教贯通、社会力量参与、国际交流合作等协同推进体系,为建设人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化厚植生态根基。

关键词：生态文明习近平生态文明思想碳达峰碳中和双碳教育中国式现代化

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Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2008年第3期2卷 318-325页

作者： Xiao WANG fanghua hao Xuan ZHANG Wen SUN Hongguang CHENG State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management *** gas H_(2)S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation *** is important to evaluate the real concentration of H_(2)S,especially in complex *** experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain,especially in low-lying areas where the gas *** study,using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan“Pu Guang gas field”as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions,applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H_(2)S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain *** results showed that the H_(2)S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction,and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body,it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over,flowed around submitted jumping type *** mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point,the better the diffusing condition of pollutant,the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H_(2)S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area,synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point,thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher *** to simulation results,the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.

关键词： complex terrain high-sulfur gas field environmental risk accident Lagrangian Puff Model

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Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics

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Fundamental Research 2022年第5期2卷 708-715页

作者： Xiaojun Geng Yaru Zhang Yongshuo H.Fu fanghua hao Ivan A.Janssens Josep Penuelas Shilong Piao Jing Tang Zhaofei Wu Jing Zhang Xuan Zhang Nils Chr.Stenseth College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design(GIWP) Ministry of Water ResourcesBeijing 100053China Plants and Ecosystems Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium CREAF Cerdanyola del VallèsBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain CSIC Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UABBellaterraBarcelona 08193CataloniaSpain Pecking University Beijing100847China Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund UniversitySE22362 LundSweden Terrestrial Ecology Section Department of BiologyUniversity of CopenhagenDK2100CopenhagenDenmark Center for Permafrost(CENPERM) University of CopenhagenDK1350CopenhagenDenmark Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES) Department of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloN-0316 OsloNorway

Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes,albeit with large *** in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy,water and carbon balances at global *** this study,we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites,distributed across the northern hemisphere in China,Europe and the United States,to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity(S T,advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming)and correlation(R_(T),partial correlation coefficient)to temperature during the period *** all species and sites,we found that S_(T) decreased significantly by 0.15±0.02 d℃^(-1)°N^(-1),and R_(T) increased by 0.02±0.001°N^(-1)(both at P<0.001).The latitudinal patterns in R_(T) and S_(T) were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate,particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out *** results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.

关键词： Apparent temperature sensitivity Latitudinal pattern Leaf-out Temperate tree Climate change

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Soil erosion assessment by RUSLE with improved P factor and its validation:Case study on mountainous and hilly areas of Hubei Province,China

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2021年第3期9卷 433-444页

作者： Pei Tian Zhanliang Zhu Qimeng Yue Yi He Zhaoyi Zhang fanghua hao Wenzhao Guo Lin Chen Muxing Liu Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis&Simulation of Hubei Province Central China Normal UniversityWuhan430079PR China School of Geosciences The University of EdinburghEH89XPUK Department of Geography University of MontrealH2V 0B3MontrealQCCanada State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationNorthwest A&F UniversityYangling712100Shaanxi PR China

The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)is widely used to estimate regional soil ***,quantitative impacts of soil and water conservation(SWC)measures on conservation practice factor(P)of the RUSLE remain largely unclear,especially for the mountainous and hilly *** this study,we improved the RUSLE by considering quantitative impacts of different SWC measures on the P factor *** improved RUSLE was validated against the long-term(2000-2015)soil erosion monitoring data obtained from 96 runoff plots(15—35°)in mountainous and hilly areas of Hubei Province,China;the result presented a high accuracy with the determination coefficient of *** on the erosion monitoring data of 2018 and 2019,the Root Mean Square Error of the result by the improved RUSLE was 28.0%smaller than that by the original RUSLE with decrement of 19.6%—24.0%in the average P factor values,indicating that the soil erosion modelling accuracy was significantly enhanced by the improved *** low P factor values appeared for farmlands with tillage measures(P<0.53),grasslands with engineering measures(P<0.23),woodlands with biological measures(P<0.28),and other land use types with biological measures(P<0.51).The soil erosion modulus showed a downward trend with the corresponding values of 1681.21,1673.14,1594.70,1482.40 and 1437.50 t km^(-2)a-1 in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2019,*** applicability of the improved RUSLE was verified by the measurements in typical mountainous and hilly areas of Hubei Province,China,and arrangements of SWC measures of this area were proposed.

关键词： Conservation practice factor(P) Soil and water conservation measure Soil erosion Land use Monitoring data

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2022年夏季长江流域复合高温干旱事件的影响及应对

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水资源保护 2023年第6期39卷 46-52页

作者：郝增超张璇郝芳华付永硕北京师范大学水科学研究院北京100875

基于ERA5月尺度数据,分别计算干旱指标(SPI)和高温指标(STI),从复合型极端事件的角度分析了长江流域2022年夏季复合高温干旱事件及影响。研究结果表明:该事件是长江流域1979年以来覆盖范围最广的复合高温干旱事件,导致水资源供给减少,... 详细信息

基于ERA5月尺度数据,分别计算干旱指标(SPI)和高温指标(STI),从复合型极端事件的角度分析了长江流域2022年夏季复合高温干旱事件及影响。研究结果表明:该事件是长江流域1979年以来覆盖范围最广的复合高温干旱事件,导致水资源供给减少,影响农业生产及民众健康,同时导致电力供需失衡,增加森林火灾风险;未来应在复合高温干旱事件的发生机制、联合监测和预测、影响评估、联合调度及适应性措施等方面加强研究。

关键词：干旱高温复合型极端事件气候变化长江流域

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