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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall over Different Terrain Features in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the Warm Seasons of 2016–20

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 915-936页

作者： Qian WEI Jianhua SUN shenming fu Yuanchun ZHANG Xiaofang WANG Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences(IAP/CAS)Beijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rian Monitoring and Warning Research Institute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological Administration(CMA)Wuhan 430205China

Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River *** all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous *** all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to *** the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and *** TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.

关键词： short duration heavy rainfall diurnal variation foothill rainfall

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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU shenming fu Yong CAO Linguo JING China Meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310017China Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Center Shijiazhuang 050020China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and *** the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme *** physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting *** results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms *** reasons for this are as *** anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is ***,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved ***,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is ***,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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1981~2020年华南地区区域性极端降水事件研究

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大气科学 2024年第3期48卷 906-922页

作者：杨雯婷孙建华傅慎明赵黎京中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029 河北建投新能源有限公司石家庄050000

基于华南地区176个国家级自动气象站资料以及1981~2020年ECMWF ERA5再分析资料,采用区域性极端事件的客观识别方法(OITREE)、合成分析等方法,本文研究了华南地区区域性极端降水事件的时空分布特征,并分析了事件偏多年及偏少年的大尺度... 详细信息

基于华南地区176个国家级自动气象站资料以及1981~2020年ECMWF ERA5再分析资料,采用区域性极端事件的客观识别方法(OITREE)、合成分析等方法,本文研究了华南地区区域性极端降水事件的时空分布特征,并分析了事件偏多年及偏少年的大尺度环流特征。主要结论如下:区域性极端降水事件的频次在年际尺度上的周期变化较为明显,并具有较明显的月变化特征,高发时段为5~6月;在极端强度及影响范围上,华南地区大部分区域性极端降水事件强度约130 mm d^(-1),较少事件强度超出320 mm d^(-1),且区域性极端降水事件的影响范围呈显著上升趋势(约310 km^(2)a^(-1));在事件的综合强度上,综合指数Z呈现显著的上升趋势[0.05(10 a)^(-1)],表明事件强度呈现显著增加的趋势;在大湾区及广东北部,区域性极端降水事件的累计降水及其对总降水的贡献呈显著上升趋势,而在广西南部地区,两者呈下降趋势;在事件偏多年,华南地区存在显著的西南风水汽输送及整层水汽通量强辐合的特征,而在事件偏少年,华南地区具有整层水汽通量辐合偏弱的特征;一般降水日,850 hPa上华南地区位于弱偏东南风区,区域性极端降水事件降水日,华南地区位于气旋性环流的东南部,受到明显的西南风风速大值带影响。

关键词：华南区域性极端降水客观识别方法大尺度环流

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Main Energy Paths and Energy Cascade Processes of the Two Types of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第2期34卷 129-143页

作者： Yuanchun ZHANG Jianhua SUN shenming fu Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China 1nternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study： type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River; and type B, whose precipitation is mainly located to the north of the river. The present study investigated these two PHRE types using a newly derived set of energy equations to show the scale interaction and main energy paths contributing to the persistence of the precipitation. The main results were as follows. The available potential energy （APE） and kinetic energy （KE） associated with both PHRE types generally increased upward in the troposphere, with the energy of the type-A PHREs stronger than that of the type-B PHREs （except for in the middle troposphere）. There were two main common and universal energy paths of the two PHRE types：（1） the baroclinic energy conversion from APE to KE was the dominant energy source for the evolution of large-scale background circulations; and （2） the downscaled energy cascade processes of KE and APE were vital for sustaining the eddy flow, which directly caused the PHREs. The significant differences between the two PHRE types mainly appeared in the lower troposphere, where the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the eddy flow in type-A PHREs was from KE to APE, which reduced the intensity of the precipitation-related eddy flow; whereas, the conversion in type-B PHREs was from APE to KE, which enhanced the eddy flow.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall event energy cascade process large-scale background circulation precipitation-related eddy flow

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Mechanisms accounting for the repeated occurrence of torrential rainfall over South Thailand in early January 2017

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2020年第2期13卷 155-162页

作者： JIN Shuanglong fu shenming State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy&Storage Systems China Electric Power Research InstituteBeijingChina Electric Power Meteorology State Grid Corporation Joint Laboratory BeijingChina International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Based on CMORPH precipitation estimates and ERA5 reanalysis data,this study investigates the mechanisms accounting for the repeated occurrence of torrential rainfall over South Thailand in early January 2017,which induced the strongest floods over Ko Samui and Ko Phangan in the last almost 30 *** is found that the maintenance of a northeastward-moving mesoscale vortex that formed southwest of the Indochina Peninsula was the direct reason for the series of torrential rainfall *** of the vorticity budget illustrates that convergence-related horizontal shrinking was the most favorable factor for the maintenance of the *** was the second most favorable factor,whereas horizontal and vertical transport mainly caused a net export of cyclonic vorticity from the vortex’s three-dimensional range,which was detrimental for its *** analysis indicates that tilting and vertical vorticity transport were sensitive to the vortex’s displacement and the enhancement of cyclonic vorticity at lower levels around the vortex,respectively,as the two factors showed completely different effects on the persistence of the vortex during two different stages.

关键词： Heavy Rainfall Thailand Vorticity Budget Tilting

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Impacts of Diurnal Variation of Mountain-plain Solenoid Circulations on Precipitation and Vortices East of the Tibetan Plateau during the Mei-yu Season

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 139-153页

作者： ZHANG Yuanchun SUN Jianhua fu shenming Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Diurnal variations of two mountain-plain solenoid （MPS） circulations associated with ＂first-step＂ terrain [Tibetan Plateau （TP）] and ＂second-step＂ terrain （high mountains between the TP and ＂east plains＂） in China and their influence on the south west vortex （SWV） and the mei-yu front vortex （MYFV） were investigated via a semi-idealized mesoscale numerical model [Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF）] simulation integrated with ten-day average fields （mei-yu period of 1-10 July 2007）. The simulations successfully reproduced two MPS circulations related to first and second-step terrain, diurnal vari- ations from the eastern edge of the TP to the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YHRV）, and two precipitation maximum centers related to the SWV, MYFV. Analyses of the averaged final seven-day simulation showed the different diurnal peaks of precipitation at different regions： from the aftemoon to early evening at the eastern edge of the TP; in the early evening to the next early morning in the Sichuan Basin （SCB）; and in the late evening to the next early morning over the mei-yu front （MYF）. Analyses of individual two-day cases confirmed that the upward branches of the nightlime MPS circulations enhanced the precipitation over the SWV and the MYFV and revealed that the eastward extension of the SWV and its con vection were conducive to triggering the MYFVs. The eastward propagation of a rainfall streak from the eastern edge of the TP to the eastern coastal region was primarily due to a series of convective activities of several systems from west to east, including the MPS between the TP and SCB, the SWV, the MPS between second-step terrain and tile east plains, and the MYFV.

关键词： mountain-plain solenoid (MPS) diurnal variation mei-yu front

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近十年我国涡旋系统的研究进展

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大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 228-260页

作者：孙建华周玉淑傅慎明杨帅张元春汪汇洁黄玥中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

近年我国暴雨和强对流等中小尺度灾害性天气频发,涡旋是产生这些灾害天气的重要天气系统之一。为了不断提高对我国涡旋及其产生的暴雨和强对流天气发生发展机理的认识和预报准确率,本文对容易引发长江流域沿线灾害天气的三类涡旋(高原... 详细信息

近年我国暴雨和强对流等中小尺度灾害性天气频发,涡旋是产生这些灾害天气的重要天气系统之一。为了不断提高对我国涡旋及其产生的暴雨和强对流天气发生发展机理的认识和预报准确率,本文对容易引发长江流域沿线灾害天气的三类涡旋(高原低涡、西南低涡和大别山涡)及对北方地区暴雨、强对流天气有重要影响的东北冷涡、中亚低涡的主要研究成果进行了梳理。主要回顾了近十年这些涡旋的识别方法、时空分布统计特征、三维结构以及产生的暴雨、强对流天气机理。最后,对与涡旋系统以及相关天气的研究与预报中的问题、未来发展方向进行了简要讨论和展望。

关键词：暴雨高原低涡西南低涡大别山涡东北冷涡中亚低涡

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A comparison of two kinds of eastward-moving mesoscale vortices during the mei-yu period of 2010

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Science China Earth Sciences 2013年第2期56卷 282-300页

作者： fu shenming YU Fei WANG DongHai XIA RuDi State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

During the mei-yu period,the east edge of the Tibetan Plateau and the Dabie Mountain are two main sources of eastward-moving mesoscale vortices along the mei-yu front(MYF).In this study,an eastward-moving southwest vortex(SWV) and an eastward-moving Dabie vortex(DBV) during the mei-yu period of 2010 have been investigated to clarify the main similarities and differences between *** synoptic analyses reveal that the SWV and DBV were both located at the lower troposphere;however,the SWV developed in a "from top down" trend,whereas the DBV developed in an opposite *** were obvious surface closed low centers corresponding to the DBV during its life span,whereas for the SWV,the closed low center only appeared at the mature *** and warm air intersected intensely after the formation of both the vortices,and the cold advection in the SWV case was stronger than that in the DBV case,whereas the warm advection in the DBV case was more intense than that in the SWV *** Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea were main moisture sources for the SWV,whereas for the DBV,in addition to the above two moisture sources,the East China Sea was also an important moisture *** vorticity budget indicates that the convergence was the most important common factor conducive to the formation,development,and maintenance of the SWV and DBV,whereas the conversion from the vertical vorticity to the horizontal one(tilting) was the most important common factor caused the dissipation of both of the *** kinetic energy(KE) budget reveals that the KE generation by the rotational wind was the dominant factor for the enhancement of KE associated with the SWV,whereas for the DBV,the KE transport by the rotational wind was more important than the KE *** KE associated with the SWV and the DBV weakened with different mechanisms during the decaying ***,the characteristics of baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions during the life spans of both vor

关键词： southwest vortex mei-yu vorticity kinetic energy baroclinic energy conversion barotropic energy conversion

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Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley during 1981–2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2167-2182页

作者： Huijie WANG Jianhua SUN shenming fu Yuanchun ZHANG Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern *** characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are *** anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower *** zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian ***-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B *** composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE *** location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and *** water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall events Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley Rossby wave energy dispersion water vapor paths cold air paths

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On the Variation of Divergent Flow： An Eddy-flux Form Equation Based on the Quasi-geostrophic Balance and Its Application

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第5期34卷 599-612页

作者： shenming fu Jie CAO Xingwen JIANG Jianhua SUN International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory of Cloud Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China fnstitute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Chengdu 610072 China

Based on basic equations in isobaric coordinates and the quasi-geostrophic balance,an eddy-flux form budget equation of the divergent wind has been derived. This newly derived budget equation has evident physical significance. It can show the intensity of a weather system,the variation of its flow pattern,and the feedback effects from smaller-scale systems(eddy flows). The usefulness of this new budget equation is examined by calculating budgets for the strong divergent-wind centers associated with the South Asian high,and the strong divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau,during summer(June–August) 2010. The results indicate that the South Asian high significantly interacts with eddy flows. Compared with effects from the mean flow(background circulation),the eddy flows’ feedback influences are of greater importance in determining the flow pattern of the South Asian high. Although the positive divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau intensify through different mechanisms,certain similarities are also obvious. First,the effects from mean flow are dominant in the rapid intensification process of the positive divergence center. Second,an intense offsetting mechanism exists between the effects associated with the eddy flows’ horizontal component and the effects related to the eddy flows’ convection activities,which weakens the total effects of the eddy flows significantly. Finally,compared with the effects associated with the convection activities of the mean flow,the accumulated effects of the eddy flows’ convection activities may be more favorable for the enhancement of the positive-divergence centers.

关键词： divergent wind quasi-geostrophic balance scale interactions South Asia high

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