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DYNAMICAL PREDICTION OF WEST CHINA AUTUMN RAINFALL BY THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第1期25卷 114-128页

作者： DONG Shao-rou YANG Song ZHANG Tuan-tuan feng ye-rong School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall(WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the *** from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that,southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.

关键词： west China autumn rainfall NCEP CFSv2 prediction predictable patterns

Simulation of the evolution of the latent heat processes in a mesoscale convective system accompanied by heavy rainfall over the Guangzhou region of South China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第1期10卷 58-64页

作者： LI Jiang-Nan WU Kai-Lu DING Cheng-Hui YANG Chao-feng LI Fang-Zhou WANG Dong-Hai feng ye-rong School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina Guangdong/CMA Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction GuangzhouChina

A cloud-scale WRF simulation was used to investigate the cloud microphysical processes and threedimensional structure of latent heat budgets in different stages of a mesoscale convective system（MCS） accompanied by heavy rain that occurred in the Guangzhou region of South *** results enable us to draw the following conclusions：（1） During the development and mature stages,the main heating processes were condensation below 400 hPa and deposition above 400 *** main cooling processes were evaporation and *** the dissipation stage,all the microphysical processes were weak.（2） Water vapor condensed into cloud water,and rainwater significantly contributed to all stages of the MCS.（3） During every stage of the MCS,the primary cooling microphysical process was the evaporation of rainwater,which was maximum during the mature stage.

关键词： Mesoscale convective system microphysical process latent heat budget

Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with Increased Vertical Resolution in the TRAMS Model

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第4期28卷 377-387页

作者： XU Dao-sheng LIANG Jia-hao LU Ze-bin ZHANG Yan-xia HUANG Fei feng ye-rong ZHANG Bang-lin Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China College of Ocean and Meteorology Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiangGuangdong 524088 China Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau ZhuhaiGuangdong 519099 China

The numerical simulation of typhoons has been found to be very sensitive to the vertical resolution of the *** the updating of the TRAMS model from version 1.0 to 3.0,the horizontal resolution has been increased from 36 km to 9 km,while the vertical layer number only increased from 55 to 65 *** lack of high vertical resolution limits the performance of the TRAMS model in typhoon forecasting to a certain *** order to study the potential improvement of typhoon forecasting by increasing the vertical resolution,this paper increases the vertical resolution of the TRAMS model from 65 to 125 layers for the first time for a comparative simulation *** results of the case study with Typhoon Hato(2017)show that the model with high vertical resolution can significantly enhance the warm structure caused by water vapor flux convergence and vertical transport,thus accurately simulating the rapid strengthening process of the ***,the model with 125-layer vertical resolution can simulate the asymmetric structural characteristics of the wind field,which are closer to the observations and can help to reduce the bias in typhoon track *** improvement of vertical resolution is also trialed by using the batch test results of several landfalling typhoons in *** experimental results show that the typhoon forecast of the model becomes consistent with the observations only when the number of vertical layers of the model increases to about 125 layers,which in turn causes a large computational *** the next step,we will try to solve the computational burden problem caused by ultra-high vertical resolution with the top boundary nesting technique,and realize the application of high vertical resolution in the actual operation of the TRAMS model.

关键词： typhoon model vertical resolution verification

A Review on GRAPES-TMM Operational Model System at Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 495-504页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang ZHANG Cheng-zhong ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin feng ye-rong CHEN De-hui XUE Ji-shan Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China

This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

关键词： GRAPES-TMM TRAMS physical processes 9-3-1 forecasting system

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 406-417页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin ZHUANG Yan HU Sheng CHEN Zi-tong DING Wei-yu feng ye-rong DENG Tao LIU Xian-tong ZHANG Yan-xia XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430205 China

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were *** impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further *** results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over *** maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan *** 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and *** comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and *** water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·*** north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south *** IVT over the lower troposphere(yer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

关键词： extreme rainfall CMA-GD IVT double-eyes distribution

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我国典型宅基地置换模式比较

江西农业学报 2015年第1期27卷 113-118页

作者：冯蓉晔江苏省土地开发整理中心江苏南京210017

对我国现有的宅基地置换模式按照置换离城区的远近进行了分类,并对各类模式的优缺点进行了比较。对天津"宅基地换房"、浙江"两分两换"和重庆"地票"模式进行了深入分析,对这3种模式产生的背景、运行路径、补偿方式、资金来源以及模式的... 详细信息

对我国现有的宅基地置换模式按照置换离城区的远近进行了分类,并对各类模式的优缺点进行了比较。对天津"宅基地换房"、浙江"两分两换"和重庆"地票"模式进行了深入分析,对这3种模式产生的背景、运行路径、补偿方式、资金来源以及模式的优缺点都进行了对比,并探讨了各类模式的适用范围。最后,在对各类模式总结的基础上,提出了相应的改进方案。

关键词：宅基地地票宅基地换房两分两换

华南地区网格化在路机动车污染排放量估算与分析

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热带气象学报 2007年第3期23卷 229-236页

作者：冯业荣王安宇吴兑樊琦中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广东广州510080

在机动车数据的基础上,利用SMOKE模式估算了华南地区在路机动车污染物排放量,得到了用于空气质量数值模拟的网格化机动车排放源数据。估算结果显示机动车排放源主要分布在珠江三角洲和华南沿海地区,其中珠江三角洲排放量最大,且在深圳... 详细信息

在机动车数据的基础上,利用SMOKE模式估算了华南地区在路机动车污染物排放量,得到了用于空气质量数值模拟的网格化机动车排放源数据。估算结果显示机动车排放源主要分布在珠江三角洲和华南沿海地区,其中珠江三角洲排放量最大,且在深圳香港、广州、珠海澳门三个中心城市区分别出现了三个机动车排放中心,这三个中心与区域经济发达程度有较好的对应。分析还表明,快速增长的摩托车和小汽车数量对机动车排放总量的影响很大,是造成华南城市空气质量恶化的重要因素。

关键词： SMOKE模式华南珠江三角洲机动车排放

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雷达定量降水动态分级Z-I关系估算方法

热带气象学报 2011年第4期27卷 601-608页

作者：汪瑛冯业荣蔡锦辉胡胜广东省气象台广东广州510080 顺德市气象局广东顺德528300

利用高时空分辨率的雷达定量降水估测和预报(RQPE和RQPF)对洪水监测、发布洪水警报起重要指导作用,目前国内外对其研究的方法主要采用概率配对法、Z-I关系法和基于Z-I关系的数学算法校正法,这些方法均存在强调某一因素忽略其它因素的问... 详细信息

利用高时空分辨率的雷达定量降水估测和预报(RQPE和RQPF)对洪水监测、发布洪水警报起重要指导作用,目前国内外对其研究的方法主要采用概率配对法、Z-I关系法和基于Z-I关系的数学算法校正法,这些方法均存在强调某一因素忽略其它因素的问题,并且对短时强降水,尤其是极强降水低估严重。从统计和个例两方面对比分析了四种雷达定量降水方法的误差,致力于寻找一种将雷达回波反射率预报场反演为降水场时误差较小的技术方法,能改进对短时强降水、特别是极强降水严重低估问题的方法,并且该方法也能在业务应用中方便、快速、精确实现。对比研究结果表明:动态分级Z-I关系法是一种对雷达QPE和回波反射率预报场反演降水场都较好的方法,并且改进了对短时强降水、尤其是大于55 mm/h的短时极强降水低估的问题;在业务计算中仅需15秒,能满足6分钟更新一次计算结果的需要,而且不依赖气候统计,便于移植。

关键词： RQPE RQPF Z—I关系动态分级

2003年天气气候异常灾害机理的定量分析Ⅱ——黄淮秋汛

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热带气象学报 2007年第4期23卷 355-364页

作者：陈桂兴冯业荣袁卓建魏清广州中心气象台广东广州510080 中山大学大气科学系/季风与环境研究中心广东广州510275 广州军区空军司令部气象中心广东广州510070

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和局地经向环流线性诊断模式,定量分析导致2003年黄淮秋汛的主要物理过程,并结合天气形势来确立(1～3天)短期预报的着眼点。数值诊断结果表明:(1)预报降水的开始和发展趋势可参考贝加尔湖-新疆低槽及其分裂西风... 详细信息

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和局地经向环流线性诊断模式,定量分析导致2003年黄淮秋汛的主要物理过程,并结合天气形势来确立(1～3天)短期预报的着眼点。数值诊断结果表明:(1)预报降水的开始和发展趋势可参考贝加尔湖-新疆低槽及其分裂西风小槽的槽前暖平流与长江流域副热带高压脊西北侧的西南风暖平流的叠加过程。这两股暖平流在黄淮流域所驱动的经向环流上升支占总体上升运动的23.1%,且主要出现在强降水前3天内,强度达到-0.015 Pa/s。(2)预报降水的强度和持续时间可参考高空西风急流在黄河流域北侧的建立和维持。与该急流有关的平均西风动量平流在黄淮流域所驱动的上升支占总体上升运动的28.8%,且主要出现在强降水后4天内,强度达到-0.02 Pa/s。此外,与强降水同步发生且起正反馈作用的潜热加热所驱动的上升支占总体上升运动的44.2%,在强降水期间达到-0.03 Pa/s。(3)预报秋汛结束可参考对流层中上层冷平流侵入黄淮流域以及高空西风急流南压到长江流域北侧,迫使南亚高压脊和副热带高压脊撤出长江流域的一系列过程。与该过程有关的平均温度平流、平均西风动量平流及平均热量垂直输送所驱动的下沉支控制黄淮流域,会导致黄淮秋汛结束。

关键词：黄淮流域秋汛局地经向环流上升运动诊断分析