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Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

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National Science Review 2024年第5期11卷 110-120页

作者： Qichao Yao Dabang Jiang Ben Zheng Xiaochun Wang Xiaolin Zhu keyan fang Lamei Shi Zhou Wang Yongli Wang Linhao Zhong Yanyan Pei Amy Hudson Shuai Xu Maowei Bai Xinyan Huang Valerie Trouet National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education School of Forestry Northeast Forestry University Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research University of Arizona Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Statistics Colorado State University Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process (MOE) College of Geographic Sciences Fujian Normal University Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in ***, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China Fire History Atlas(CFHA), which is based on 19 947documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century(1901–1994).We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire–temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire–temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire–temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire–climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

关键词： fire–climate interactions global warming fire history network urban fires fire management

Co-varying temperatures at 200 hPa over the Earth’s three poles

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第2期64卷 340-350页

作者： keyan fang Peng ZHANG Jingming CHEN Deliang CHEN Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process(Ministry of Education) College of Geographical SciencesFujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgBox 460S-40530 GothenburgSweden Department of Geography and Program in Planning University of Toronto100 St.George St.TorontoOntarioCanada

The Earth’s three poles,the North Pole,South Pole,and Third Pole(i.e.,the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings),hold the largest amount of fresh water on Earth as glaciers,sea ice,and *** are sensitive to climate ***,the linkages between climate variations of the three poles,particularly between the South Pole and Third Pole,remain largely *** temperatures at 200 hPa over the three poles are the highest in the summer and are less affected by surface conditions,which could reflect large-scale dynamic *** at 200 hPa peak the three poles during their respective hemispheric summer and exhibit in-phase variations on interdecadal timescales(10–100 years).The 200 hPa temperatures over the North Pole and South Pole were significantly correlated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation(BDC),which transports stratospheric ozone poleward,heating the air at 200 *** warming over the Third Pole was found to enhance the poleward BDC,particularly to the South Pole,linking the Third Pole’s climate to the other two ***,the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)also exhibits links with the 200 hPa temperatures of the three poles.

关键词： Three poles Tibetan Plateau Brewer-Dobson circulation Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Climate teleconnection

Abrupt vegetation shifts caused by gradual climate changes in central Asia during the Holocene

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第7期60卷 1317-1327页

作者： ZHAO Yan LIU YaoLiang GUO ZhengTang fang keyan LI Quan CAO XianYong Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China College of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal University Fuzhou 350007 China Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research 14473 Potsdam Germany

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes.A large-scale abrupt shift of vegetation in response to the Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. Whether such a non-linear response is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here,we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on a compilation of 38 high-quality pollen records. The results show that the Holocene vegetation experienced two major abrupt shifts, one in the early Holocene(Shift I, establishing shift) and another in the late Holocene(Shift II, collapsing shift), while the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable. The timings of these shifts in different regions are asynchronous, which are not readily linkable with any known abrupt climate shifts,but are highly correlated with the local rainfalls. These new findings suggest that the observed vegetation shifts are attributable to the threshold effects of the orbital-induced gradual climate changes. During the early Holocene, the orbital-induced precipitation increase would have first reached the threshold for vegetation "establishment" for moister areas, but significantly later for drier areas. In contrast, the orbital-induced precipitation decrease during the late Holocene would have first reached the threshold, and led to the vegetation "collapse" for drier areas, but delayed for moister areas. The well-known 4.2 kyr BP drought event and human intervention would have also helped the vegetation collapses at some sites. These interpretations are strongly supported by our surface pollen-climate analyses and ecosystem simulations. These results also imply that future climate changes may cause abrupt changes in the dry ecosystem once the threshold is reached.

关键词： Fossil pollen Vegetation response Threshold effects Holocene climate Central Asia

Response of Pinus taiwanensis growth to climate changes at its southern limit of Daiyun Mountain, China's Mainland Fujian Province

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第2期59卷 328-336页

作者： CHEN Dan fang keyan LI YingJun DONG ZhiPeng ZHANG Yu ZHOU FeiFei Institute of Geography Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education)College of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal University Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Research Center for Scientific Development in Fenhe River Valley Taiyuan Normal University

The Pinus taiwanensis trees of a Chinese endemic species form pure forests at infertile sites in humid subtropical China, which can aid soil reservation and ecological resiliency at such sites. Herein, we used dendrochronological methods to investigate the growth patterns and their relationship with climate by analyzing 158 cores of 79 P. taiwanensis trees at 4 sites in their southernmost distribution in China's Mainland at Daiyun Mountain in Fujian Province. Tree growths at sites with favor- able conditions generally showed an age-related growth trend, which decreased from approximately 5 mm to 0.5 mm in about a century. Trees in moderately stressed environments established high growth in their juvenile periods but were highly suscep- tible to environmental stresses such as a sharp growth decline in the 1990s. The temperature in February and the moisture in July are the major limiting factors for most of the tree growths, except for a few extremely stressed P. taiwanensis trees. The growth of the dwarf P. taiwanensis trees, with all ring diameters of the first 20 years less than 4 ram, is mainly limited by the dry climate in May. Under the potential future warming trend, drought stress can be particularly threatening to these dwarf P. taiwanensis trees, which are likely to be the germplasm resources for this species in this region.

关键词： Daiyun Mountain Pinus taiwanensis Climate-growth relationships Drought Global warming

苏北地区唐宋棺木种属鉴定及树轮年代学研究潜力

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第四纪研究 2024年第4期44卷 1008-1020页

作者：张迪方克艳贾鑫周非飞梅泽鹏肖中财陈渊明杜平湿润亚热带生态-地理过程教育部重点实验室福建师范大学地理科学学院福建福州350117 南京师范大学地理科学学院南京师范大学环境考古研究院江苏南京210023 连云港市文物保护和考古研究所江苏连云港222003

历史时期木材遗存是研究过去环境、气候、社会经济状况以及古人地关系的重要材料。本研究对苏北地区(连云港海州区体育馆二期)5座唐宋时期墓葬的棺椁木进行树种鉴定,并探究其树木年代学研究的应用潜力。经鉴定,墓葬中的棺板样品均为杉木... 详细信息

历史时期木材遗存是研究过去环境、气候、社会经济状况以及古人地关系的重要材料。本研究对苏北地区(连云港海州区体育馆二期)5座唐宋时期墓葬的棺椁木进行树种鉴定,并探究其树木年代学研究的应用潜力。经鉴定,墓葬中的棺板样品均为杉木,但这一时期杉木的分布北界可能未到达海州地区(现连云港)。杉木能够成为该地区棺椁木制作的重要树种,可能得益于唐宋时期京杭大运河的发展带来的便利水运条件,降低了木料运输成本;同时这种对较大树龄杉木的开发利用,也反映了唐宋时期长江流域原始杉木林的存在。本研究还基于树木年代学方法对部分杉板进行交叉定年,采用6条序列建立晚唐五代时期238年树轮宽度浮动序列,13条序列建立412年北宋时期的树轮宽度浮动年表。这些样本间的一致性与平均敏感度较高,表明棺木树轮样本可用于树木年代学研究,为将来建立该气候区的树轮长年表奠定基础。

关键词：树轮唐宋朝代棺木木材识别木材利用杉木

Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2014年第2期6卷 131-138页

作者： keyan fang Heikki Sepp Department of Geosciences and Geography PO Box 6400014 University of Helsinki

Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature （SST） pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation （THC）. Great earthquakes （M 〉8）, particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.

关键词： earthquake climate change Thermohaline Circulation PDO

Difference in Tree Growth Responses to Climate at the Upper Treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains

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Journal of Integrative Plant Biology 2008年第8期50卷 982-990页

作者： Jianfeng Peng Xiaohua Gou Fahu Chen Jinbao Li Puxing Liu Yong Zhang keyan fang Center for Arid Environment and Paleoclimate Research (CAEP) Key Laboratory of Westem China's Environment Systems MOE Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China Institute of Resource and Environment Henan University Kaifeng 475004 China Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University NY 10964 USA College of Geography and Environment Sciences Northwest Normal University Lanzhou 730070 China

Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper （Sabina przewalskii Kom.） at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity （MS）, decreased from west to east. The first principal component （PC1） Ioadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 Ioadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season （July-August） was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western （drier） upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern （wetter） upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western （drier） upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern （wetter） upper treeline.

关键词： climate-growth correlations dendrochronology Qilian juniper treeline

基于组合权重法的输电线路水土流失次生灾害危险性评价

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矿产勘查 2024年第6期15卷 1074-1083页

作者：陈垚江世雄王重卿李熙翁孙贤陈鸿方克艳国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院福建福州350007 福建师范大学地理科学学院福建福州350007

输变电线路工程往往具有跨区域广、沿线地形地质条件极为复杂、各种自然灾害频发、灾害风险高等特点。本文首先通过对山东淄博市输变电工程沿线的水土流失次生灾害调查,分析研究了沿线灾害发育的规律及特征,其灾害发育主要受地形地貌、... 详细信息

输变电线路工程往往具有跨区域广、沿线地形地质条件极为复杂、各种自然灾害频发、灾害风险高等特点。本文首先通过对山东淄博市输变电工程沿线的水土流失次生灾害调查,分析研究了沿线灾害发育的规律及特征,其灾害发育主要受地形地貌、地层岩性、降雨控制。随后选择了高程、坡度、坡向、地貌类型、降雨、断层距离、土地利用类型、水系密度、岩性、道路距离、矿区距离共11个因子作为评价指标,融合层次分析法和信息量法对研究区的灾害危险性进行了评价,成功率曲线AUC为0.76,显示评价精度较高。评价结果表明:沿线杆塔位于极低危险区3151个,位于低危险区1696个,位于中危险区2622个,位于高危险区1011个,位于极高危险区71个。同时危险性区划图可以为输变电工程的选线、灾害防治等提供科学依据,具有重要的应用价值。

关键词：组合权重输变电工程水土流失次生灾害危险性评价

Vegetation and climate change during Marine Isotope Stage 3 in China

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2014年第33期59卷 4444-4455页

作者： Yan Zhao Zicheng Yu Ulrike Herzschuh Bao Yang Hui Zhao keyan fang Huan Li Quan Li Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lehigh University Alfred Wegner Institute for Polar and Marine Research Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Fujian Normal University Research School of Arid Environment and Climate Change Lanzhou University

Fossil pollen records from 45 sites across China were evaluated and synthesized to document vegetation and climate change during Marine Isotope Stage 3(MIS 3)at 60–27 ka and to understand the large-scale *** MIS3, vegetation type was dominantly forest in eastern China, forest steppe/meadow in the north and Tibetan Plateau, and steppe desert in northwestern arid China. We developed a semi-quantitative vegetation index to reflect change in plant abundance(by inferring the general climate conditions), with a vegetation score from 1to 3 based on the different vegetation types inferred from pollen data at individual sites at intervals of 2,000 *** reconstructed vegetation index shows higher values during MIS 3, especially during the period 53–40 ka, than at the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results also suggest that climate on the basis of vegetation change was cooler and drier during MIS 3 than during the Holocene optimum;however, MIS 3 vegetation was probably similar to modern vegetation. The close relationship between vegetation change, insolation and Asian summer monsoon strength suggests that climate variations, probably in both temperature and precipitation, are the primary drivers of regional vegetation change. Additional well-dated, high-resolution palaeoclimate records from many locations across China will be needed to understand the vegetation change and climate forcings on millennial and centennial scales within MIS 3.

关键词：深海氧同位素植被类型气候变化中国海洋草原化荒漠植被变化中国东部地区森林草原