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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke {1. {2. wang Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. and Bjerknes Centre for Climate {2. Bergen 5007Norway nansen-{1. {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections li{1. in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is li{1.ly to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun {1. {2. fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-{1. {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air {1. Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth {1. 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1.2.3.& wang huijun2.1. nansen-zhu international research center,{1., Chinese {2. of sciences, Beijing 1.002., china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091. china 3. Graduate University of the Chinese {2. of sciences, Beijing 1.0049, china 1. nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China 3. Graduate University of the Chinese academy of {1. Beijing 100049 China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth {1. 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 {2.-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 1.002., china 2.Graduate University of the Chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-{1. {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the Chinese academy of {1. Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1.65-1.99, with an average relative root mean square error of 1.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.4} for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1.65-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation on the dust aerosol distribution

A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation o...

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中国气象学会2.08年年会大气环境监测、预报与污染物控制分会场

作者： Xu Yue1,2. huijun wang1, Zifa wang1 and ke fan11nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese academy of {12., Beijing, china. 2.raduate School of the Chinese academy of {12., Beijing, china.

A new global three-dimensional transport model of mineral dust aerosols is developed and evaluated. The dust model is embedded in a general circulation model with conservative dynamical core and unique consideration of the polar transportation, which make the model stable in simulations. Comprehensive parameterizations of the emission and deposition processes from {1. et al. [2.00] are modified to match the surface conditions and meteorological fields of the climate model. A 2.-year simulation from the dust model gives an estimation of dust mobilization of 1.74 ± 30 Tg yr-1.and a global dust burden of about 2. Tg for the particles smaller than 1. μm. The vertical distribution, temporal variation on different time scales and surface concentration of the simulated mineral dust aerosols are compared with both observations and simulations from other models. The evaluation results show that the new dust model has the ability to reproduce the principal features of global dust transportation. The main deficiency of the model is the underestimation of the dust activity in East Asia during spring and the overestimation of the concentration in Central Pacific, which have also been reported by other model simulations. The global mean optical thickness of dust at 0.63 μm is 0.02. ± 0.004 in the model, which is comparable to the magnitude of sulphate aerosols. Such result indicates that both anthropogenic and natural sources need to be considered when evaluating the climate feedback of aerosols.

关键词： mineral dust aerosols, transport model, emission and deposition, optical thickness

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Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 13-18页

作者： Baoqiang Tian ke {1. nansen-{1. {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1.波弗特高压,前期1.月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1...

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1.波弗特高压,前期1.月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1.月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1.波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1.持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.1.月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与1.月至次年2.北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1.北极偶极子异常是1.月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1.81.2.2.年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41..

关键词：早期消融开始日期白令海季节性海冰波弗特高压统计预测模型

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Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South china Sea and Western North Pacific

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第2期33卷 323-335页

作者： Zhiqing XU ke {1. {2. wang nansen–{1. {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese academy of {1. Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South china Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1.equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(wea{1.ned) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.

关键词： convective quasi-biweekly oscillation interannual variation South china Sea western North Pacific spring

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Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over china in 1.98 Using WRF and CCSM4

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2015年第5期32卷 577-584页

作者： MA Jiehua wang {1. {2. ke Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences nansen-{1. {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1.98, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2.of the Weather research and Forecasting（WRF3.2. regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North{1. and Northeast{1. the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South{1., but no obvious improvement over North{1. and Northeast{1.. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

关键词： seasonal climate prediction dynamic downscaling summer precipitation CCSM4 WRF

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Seasonal to interannual prediction of air pollution in china:Review and insight

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第1期15卷 21-26页

作者： Zhicong Yin huijun {1. Hong Liao {2. fan Botao Zhou key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina nansen-{1. {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Jiangsu key Laboratory of {1. Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina School of atmospheric {1. Sun Yat-sen University/Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster StudiesGuangzhouChina

Complex air pollution problems have resulted in considerable adverse impacts on the environment,human health,and economy in ***,owing to strict regulations since 2.13,the air quality has been greatly ***,the prevention of air pollution has entered a critical stage in combination with climate change mitigation in *** seasonal to interannual prediction of air pollution(haze,surface 03,and sandstorms) could support the government in planning for air pollution control on an annual *** from all over the world have made great progress in understanding climate change and the variability of air pollution and associated physical mechanisms in{1.,which has provided a scientific basis for the development of climate prediction of air *** paper reviews the progress made in air-pollution climate prediction,and gives some critical insights including update of predictand,change of predictability,and development of coupled model.

关键词： Air pollution Climate prediction PM2.5 Ozone Sandstorm

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中国东北极端持续大—暴雪事件的个例成因及可预测性

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大气科学学报 2024年第2期47卷 201-215页

作者：范可杨洪卿田宝强王路杉中山大学大气科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 广东珠海519082 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 中国科学院大学北京100049

2.13年1.月东北大—暴雪持续日数为1.82.2.2.年同期最多的一年。其中,2.13年1.月1.—2.日和2.日先后发生两次强降雪过程,其中第一次过程降雪持续时间较长,而第二次过程日降雪强度强。基于此,从2.13年1.月月际异常气候背景和两次强降雪... 详细信息

2.13年1.月东北大—暴雪持续日数为1.82.2.2.年同期最多的一年。其中,2.13年1.月1.—2.日和2.日先后发生两次强降雪过程,其中第一次过程降雪持续时间较长,而第二次过程日降雪强度强。基于此,从2.13年1.月月际异常气候背景和两次强降雪过程的角度,开展其成因和可预测性研究。研究结果表明,2.13年1.月北极涛动(AO)正位相异常偏强、类北太平洋涛动(NPO)负位相、巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量(1.月减9月)异常偏多和热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖的气候背景有利于这次东北持续性大—暴雪事件的发生。其中,2.13年1.月巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量偏多,意味着季节性海冰生长量增加使得向大气中释放的潜热通量增加,气温偏高,有利于AO正位相加强并激发罗斯贝(Rossby)波列,使得阿留申低压减弱;同时1.月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,热带印度洋对流加强和热带西太平洋对流减弱,有利于西北太平洋-阿留申地区维持“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,呈现类NPO负位相。这样的环流形势有利于从北太平洋向东北地区持续输送水汽。第一次强降雪过程(1.—2.日)发生前5 d(1.0}6日)到降雪过程结束(2.日),北大西洋涛动(NAO)维持正位相并且强度达到冬半年最强,由此激发持续东传Rossby波,使得西北太平洋-阿留申地区为持续性的南北向“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,有利于北太平洋水汽持续输送至东北地区。在2.13年1.月2.日第二次强降雪过程中,乌拉尔山阻塞高压显著加强,东北低涡加深,有利于热带西太平洋更为暖湿的水汽输送至东北地区,与北太平洋输送的水汽共同导致第二次强降雪过程的日降雪强度大。最后,利用CFSv2.估2.13年1.月异常气候背景的可预测性,结果表明CFSv2.提前1.月预测2.13年1.月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,但对热带印度洋和西太平洋对流异常、NAO以及热带-中高纬大气遥相关预测能力较弱。在次季节尺度上,ECMWF(CMA)能提前2.(1.)d和1.(1.)d合理预测出两次过程降雪量的空间分布,这可能是由于模式能合理再现NAO和乌拉尔山阻塞高压等关键环流系统的逐日变化。因此未来还有待提升热带-中高纬大气遥相关、水汽输送以及平流层极涡的次季节-季节预测效能。

关键词：中国东北 1.月持续性大—暴雪强降雪过程季节性海冰生长量中高纬环流水汽输送次季节-季节气候可预测性

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