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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第2期10卷 162-167页

作者： fan Yi fan {2. nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

本研究表明,二十世纪南海夏季风的年际变率强度在一定程度上受到太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的调控,PDO处于暖(冷)位相时南海夏季风的年际变率强度偏强(弱)。热带太平洋海温的年际变率强度及南海夏季风与ENSO的关系在上述调控中起到重要作用... 详细信息

本研究表明,二十世纪南海夏季风的年际变率强度在一定程度上受到太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的调控,PDO处于暖(冷)位相时南海夏季风的年际变率强度偏强(弱)。热带太平洋海温的年际变率强度及南海夏季风与ENSO的关系在上述调控中起到重要作用。PDO处于暖位相时,热带太平洋海温变率偏大,ENSO事件偏强,因而沃克环流及西北太平洋反气旋异常的位置和强度均发生改变,最终导致南海夏季风与热带太平洋海温的相互作用更强,南海夏季风年际变率强度增大,反之亦然。

关键词：南海夏季风年际变率强度太平洋年代际振荡 ENSO

An assessment of the subduction rate in the CMIP6 historical experiment

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第1期42卷 44-60页

作者： Shan Liu Xueyi Jing Xingrong Chen huijun wang National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing100081China National Supercomputing center in Wuxi Wuxi214315China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate *** its key indicator in climate signals,it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate *** this paper,we evaluated the ability of 2. climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the subduction *** general,the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation *** on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate,GISS-E2.1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)***,it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 2. CMIP6 *** addition,the model results demonstrate that,the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction *** analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics,for example,the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.

关键词： subduction rate CMIP6 climatology long-term trend

Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第8期57卷 921-926页

作者： MA JieHua wang huijun ZHANG Yin nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide *** snowstorms have raised an important scientific *** scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3.(CMIP 3. model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" *** then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2.concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate *** experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North *** Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all ***,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to *** addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关键词：大气环流模式冬季降水中国北方北极地区模式模拟夏季东亚冬季风二氧化碳浓度

Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第3期4卷 173-180页

作者： LIU Ying fan ke {2. Hui-Jun nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of Scienees Beijing 100049 China

A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed *** was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern China between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.4.0}above 95% level) and 0.53.above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm *** averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52.to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.2. to 0.2. for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.

关键词： statistical downscaling DEMETER south-eastern China summer precipitation anomaly

A Heavy Rainfall Event in Autumn over Beijing--Atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF

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Journal of Meteorological research 2018年第3期32卷 503-515页

作者： Xiangrui LI ke fan Entao YU nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225

Heavy rainfall events often occur in Beijing during summer but rarely in autumn. However,during 3.5 September2.15, an exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred in Beijing. Based on the reanalysis data and the Weather research and Forecasting(WRF) model simulations, the main contributing factors and the predictability of this heavy rainfall event were examined through comprehensive analyses of vorticity advection and water vapor transport/budget. The results indicate that a "high-in-the-east-low-in-the-west" pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height over the Beijing area played an important role. The 850-hPa low-level jet(LLJ) provided a mechanism for rising motion and transported abundant water vapor into the Beijing area. Two-way nested hindcast experiments using WRF well reproduced the atmospheric circulation and LLJ. Quantitative analysis indicates that the WRF model with the rapid update cycle(RUC) land surface scheme and the single-moment 6-class(WSM6) micro{2. scheme exhibited the best skill, and the model performance improved with a higher resolution. Further analysis indicates that the bias in the precipitation forecast was caused by the bias in water vapor transport.

关键词： heavy rainfall WRF model water vapor supply autumn Beijing area

SO_2.Hg removal from flue gas by dry FGD

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international Journal of Mining Science and Technology 2012年第1期22卷 107-110页

作者： wang fan wang Hongmei Zhang fan {4. Jinwei Tian Gang Liu Yu Mao Jixian chinese research {2. of Environmental{3. Beijing 100012China

To study the mechanism of SO2.and Hg removal from flue gas, an experimental packed bed reactor was designed to simulate the dry FGD, where a mixture of lime and fly ash in ratio 1：3.w/w was used as the S02.and Hg sorbent, and steam at temperature of 100 ℃ was applied for activation of the sorbent, while the activation time set to 2. rain. The experimental factors including the SO2.Hg sorbent characteristics, 50% breakthrough time for SO2.Hg removal, sorbent packed bed depth and reaction temperature were investigated. The experimental results show that after steam activation, the BET specific surface area and specific pore volume increased from 3..8 to 4..5 m^2.g and from 0.4.0}to 0.51 cm^3.g, respectively. With activation of the sorbent by steam, the 50% breakthrough times of SO2.and Hg removal increased from 3. to 4.0}rain and from 2. to 4. rain, respectively. When the packed bed depth was increased from 5 to 2. ram. the 50% breakthrough times for Hg and S02.removal increased from 12.to 52.rain and from 6 to 4. rain, respectively. With the increase of the reaction temperature, the 50% breakthrough of SO2.Hg removal decreased accordingly. Steam activation can efficiently improve SO2.Hg removal simultaneously.

关键词： SO2.removal Hg removal Dry FGD Sorbent activation

Projected changes in summer water vapor transport over East Asia under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming targets

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第2期12卷 124-130页

作者： XU Zhiqing fan ke nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study investigates changes in summer water vapor transport(WVT) over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming(GW) for the +4.5 and +8.5 W m-2.Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Of the 2. models used, 18 show better skill in simulating the climatological summer WVT over East Asia of the present day. Of those 18, 13.reach 1.5°C and 2.0°C GW for the two RCPs. Based on these 13.models, results show that — relative to the present day-th e summer WVT is enhanced over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2.0°C GW for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The inte r-model consistency is higher under 2.0°C GW. Increased water vapor content favors the enhanced WVT over both southern and northern East Asia, while lower-level circulation contributes to the enhanced WVT over southern East Asia. Compared to 1.5°C GW, th e summer WVT under 2.0°C GW is further enhanced over most of East Asia for RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, the summer WVT is also further enhanced over southern East Asia, while this is not the case over northern East Asia. Under the additional 0.5°C GW, the changes in summer WVT, with low in ter-model consistency, are closely related to anomalous lower-level circulation. Precipitation increases over the East China Sea to southern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and North China, for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, the changes in precipitation over the South China Sea and Northeast China are different for the two RCPs. This is connected to the difference in the changes of WVT divergence.

关键词： Water vapor transport East Asia 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

Linkage between the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane Frequency and the Antarctic Oscillation in the Western Hemisphere

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第3期2卷 159-164页

作者： fan ke nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

To examine the zonal asymmetry of the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), different portions of the AAO from June to October (JJASO) in the interannual variability of the Atlantic tropical hurricanes number (ATHN) are documented in this research. It follows that the AAO in the Western Hemisphere (AAOWH) is positively correlated with the ATHN, at 0.3. during the period of 1871-1998 and 0.4.2}during the period of 194.-98. After removing the linear regressions on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in all time series, the above correlation coefficients are 0.2. and 0.3., respectively. The underlying mechanisms are studied through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with the AAOWH. It turns out that the positive (negative) phase of JJASO AAOWH corresponds with several factors: decreased (increased) vertical zonal wind shear magnitude, low-level anomalous convergence (divergence), high-level anomalous divergence (convergence), and warmed (cooled) sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic. Therefore, the positive (negative) phase of JJASO AAOWH is favorable (unfavorable) to the tropical hurricane genesis.

关键词： Atlantic hurricanes Antarctic Oscillation in Western Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

Evaluation of Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in 2.CRv2

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 337-342页

作者： fan ke LIU Hui nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the chinese academy of sciences

Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2.（2.CRv2. is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR version 2.Reanalysis data （NCEPv2. and the Hadley center sea-level pressure data （HadSLPv2..The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,and the pattem of Pacific-South-America （PSA） has been effectively captured by 2.CRv2.during 1979-2.10,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter （June-July-August,JJA）.The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871-2.10 is represented in both 2.CRv2.and *** most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 2.CRv2.and HadSLPv2.occurred in 1897-192. and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate *** consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.

关键词： atmospheric circulation Southern Hemisphere climate variability 2.CRv2

Analysis of Sampling Error Uncertainties and Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in China

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2014年第2期31卷 263-272页

作者： HUA Wei Samuel S.P.SHEN wang huijun nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre{4. of Atmospheric {4. Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Atmospheric sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology University of the chinese academy of sciences Department of Mathematics and Statistics San Diego State University

In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 73. meteorological stations across China for the period *** of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are *** is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and *** and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2.04.with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.4.0℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.2.9℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.{3.℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.02.℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104. （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in *** can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.

关键词： sampling error uncertainty maximum temperature minimum temperature temperature trend