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Seasonal Forecast Model for the Number of Tropical Cyclones to Make Landfall in China

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第5期2卷 251-254页

作者： fan ke nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The year-to-year increment prediction approach proposed by was applied to forecast the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over *** year-to-year increase or decrease in the number of land-falling TCs (LTCs) was first predicted to yield a net number of LTCs between successive *** statistical prediction scheme for the year-to-year increment of annual LTCs was developed based on data collected from 1977 to 2.07,which includes five predictors associated with high latitude circulations in both Hemispheres and the circulation over the local,tropical western North Pacific *** model shows reasonably high predictive ability,with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.09,a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.9,and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed annual number of LTCs of 0.86,accounting for 74% of the total *** cross-validation test further demonstrated the high predictive ability of the model,with an RMSE value of 1.4,an MAE value of 1.2.and a correlation coefficient of 0.74 during this period.

关键词： year-to-year increment landfall tropical cyclone prediction

A Statistical Scheme for the Seasonal Forecasting of North China's Surface Air Temperature during Winter

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第2期4卷 81-85页

作者： fan ke nansen-zhu {2.{3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This paper presents a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of North China's surface air temperature (NCSAT) during winter. Firstly, a prediction model for an decrease or increase of winter NCSAT is established, whose predictors are available for no later than the previous September, as this is the most favorable month for seasonal forecasting up to two months *** predicted NCSAT is then derived as the sum of the predicted increment of NCSAT and the previous NCSAT. The scheme successfully predicts the interannual and the decadal variability of NCSAT. Additionally, the advantages of the prediction scheme are discussed.

关键词： seasonal prediction scheme North China's winter surface temperature year-to year increment

Remote impacts from the tropical Indian Ocean on haze pollution in January over the Yangtze River Delta

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第3期14卷 49-53页

作者： Shuwei Xia Zhicong Yin huijun wang key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina nansen-zhu {2.{3. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Haze events in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region have recently been occurring more frequently and with dramatic damages inflicted on human and ecosystem *** this study,observational analyses and numerical experiments are used to investigate the meteorological conditions associated with haze pollution,with the main emphasis on the impacts of the preceding sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO).The results show that the December SST in the TIO has a significant positive correlation with the number of haze days in January over the YRD,especially during 1999–*** December,the positive SST anomalies in the TIO heat the overlying air,and then in the following January provoke a Matsuno–Gill-like pattern and a series of Rossby wave–like trains in the upper troposphere,transmitting signals to the YRD and downstream through the Sea of Japan and Aleutian *** cyclonic anomalies in the YRD seem to significantly weaken the East Asian jet stream by means of anomalous easterlies,and subsequently affect the climate in the *** the surface,the increased surface air temperature and southerly winds,along with the decreased surface wind speed,accompanied by influences from upstream areas,are conducive to the occurrence of *** observational results were also reproduced well in CESM-LE simulations.

关键词： Sea surface temperature Tropical indian ocean Haze pollution CESM-LE

Impacts of monsoon break events in the western North Pacific on the cross-equatorial flows over the Maritime Continent

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 33-38页

作者： Xiaoxuan Zhao Minghao Bi ke Xu Jianqi Sun Riyu Lu nansen-zhu {2.{3. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric {2. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料,探讨了1979-2.2.年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响.合成结果表明,西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高,低空越赤道气流减弱,即高层南风异常,低层北风异常,与此相关的环流异常表现为西北... 详细信息

本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料,探讨了1979-2.2.年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响.合成结果表明,西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高,低空越赤道气流减弱,即高层南风异常,低层北风异常,与此相关的环流异常表现为西北太平洋高层气旋,低层反气旋的斜压结构。特别的是,西北太平洋季风中断对高空越赤道气流的影响更为显著,92.的季风中断事件都导致高空越赤道气流减弱,而只有70%的事件造成低空越赤道气流减弱,这是由于低空越赤道气流同时还受到赤道中东太平洋海温异常的调控.

关键词：西北太平洋夏季风季风中断越赤道气流海洋性大陆

Seasonal Prediction Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon: ENSEMBLES versus DEMETER

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第4期8卷 208-214页

作者： TIAN Bao-Qiang fan ke nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science& Technology

The seasonal forecasting skill with respect to the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) was compared between the European Commission FP7 project(ENSEMBLES) and the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction project(DEMETER). The Webster-Yang index(WYI) was chosen to represent the intensity of the SASM. First, the authors compared the ability to forecast the zonal wind at 850 h Pa(U850) and 2.0 h Pa(U2.0) between ENSEMBLES and DEMETER models. The results indicated that the models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, international Organization(ECMWF) and UK Met Office(UKMO) in ENSEMBLES possess greater skill in seasonally forecasting the JJA(June, July, and August) U850, U2.0, and U850 minus U2.0 than in DEMETER. Compared to in DEMETER, the JJA U2.0 and U850 minus U2.0 forecasting skill was greater for the model from MétéoFrance(MF) in ENSEMBLES over most of the SASM region. The three coupled models(ECMWF, MF, and UKMO), especially the UKMO model in ENSEMBLES, all demonstrated improved skill in their seasonal forecasts compared to in DEMETER with respect to the interannual variability of the SASM. The three ENSEMBLES models also showed better ability in forecasting the sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and North Indian Ocean, and more accurately reproduced the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation over northern India, which are related to the SASM. It seems that the couple between the atmospheric system and external forcing of ENSMBLES over Indian Ocean and Pacific is better than that of DEMETER.

关键词： South Asian summer monsoon ENSEMBLES DEMETER climate prediction

Sub seasonal variations of weak stratospheric polar vortex in December and its impact on Eurasian air temperature

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第5期12卷 369-375页

作者： PENG Cheng fan ke DAI Haixia nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Weak stratospheric polar vortex(WPV)events during winter months were *** events were identified as being weakest in December,accompanied by the most dramatic increase in geopotential height over the polar *** the onset of a December WPV event,the dynamic processes influencing Eurasian temperature can be split into two separate *** I(lag of 0-2. days)is referred to as the stratosphere-troposphere interactions period,as it is mainly characterized by stratospheric signals propagating *** Period I,a stratospheric negative Northern Annular Mode(NAM)pattern associated with the WPV propagates downwards,inducing a negative NAM in the *** anomalous low centers over the Mediterranean and North Pacific bring cold advection to northern Eurasia,resulting in a north-cold-south-warm dipole pattern over *** zero line between negative and positive temperature anomalies moves southwards during days *** cold anomalies at midlatitudes propagate downwards to high latitudes in the troposphere and contribute to the dipole *** PeriodⅡ(lag of 2.-40 days),as downward signals from the stratosphere have vanished,the dynamic processes mainly take place within the ***,a wave train is initiated from the North Atlantic region to northern *** propagation of wave activity flux intensifies a cyclonic anomaly over northern Europe,which brings cold advection to Scandinavia and warm advection to central ***,a northwest-cold-southeast-warm dipole structure occupies Eurasia and migrates southeastwards during this period.

关键词： Stratospheric polar vortex weak stratospheric polar vortex events in December subseasonal variability stratosphere-troposphere interaction winter Eurasian air temperature(0-40 days)

Joint effects of three oceans on the 2.2. super mei-yu

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第1期15卷 12-20页

作者： Hua Li Bo Sun huijun wang Xing Yuan center for Climate System Prediction research/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/{3.y Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of Hydrology and Water Resources Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina

An unexpected super mei-yu struck in 2.2. in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,southern Korea,and southern Japan(hereafter referred to as the mei-yu regions),causing many casualties and huge economic *** super mei-yu was characterized by a remarkably early onset(around 1 June),late withdrawal(around 1 August),and intense rainfalI during the mei-yu *** precipitation in the early onset and late withdrawal stages contributed more than half of the total mei-yu-period precipitation over the mei-yu regions in *** this study,the authors explored the dominant remote forcing of the mei-yu early onset and late withdrawal to understand the mechanisms of this super *** early onset can mainly be attributed to an early northward-shifted East Asian jet stream(EAJS).The late withdrawal mainly resulted from the stagnant EAJS and the western North Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during 10 July to 1 ***,North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) excited a Rossby wave,which was steered by atmospheric anomalies related to the western North Pacific SSTAs,causing the early northward-shifted EAJS and generating an early *** record-breaking warm SSTAs over the North Indian Ocean to South China Sea and the reduced sea-ice concentration(SIC) over the Laptev-East Siberian Sea played important roles in causing the stagnant WPSH and EAJS during July,which led to the late ***,the SIC anomalies may have caused the inhomogeneous rainfall distribution in the mei-yu ***,projection results suggest that the probability of a late mei-yu withdrawal similar to the 2.2. case will increase in the ***,potential predictors of an extreme mei-yu are discussed.

关键词： Mei-yu Extreme climate event Remote forcing East Asian jet stream Western pacific subtropical high

Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 890-899页

作者： YAN Qing ZHANG ZhongShi wang huijun JIANG DaBang ZHENG WeiPeng nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Bjerknes Centre for Climate research UniResearchBergen N-5007Norway Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric {2. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12.2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 2.st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3.to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3.data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词：上新世中东温度变化未来气候变化热带太平洋气候模拟北大西洋仿真

Relationship between the Late Spring NAO and Summer Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 455-460页

作者： TTIAN Bao-Qiang fan ke nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.

关键词： North Atlantic Oscillation summer extreme precipitation frequency the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley East Asian westerly jet