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Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

Science China Earth sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2.& wang huijun1 1 {2.-{3. {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China 2.Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10003., China 1. nansen-zhu {2.{3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2.00 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2.00 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2.00, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2.3 decades climate changes over China, especially North China's drying and northwest China's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3.8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962.and 1976―1991, but low during 1963.1975 and 1992.2.00.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

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Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 2.th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2.& wang huijun1 1. {2.-{3. {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China 2. key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2.02.as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric{2., it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity wea{3.ns on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 2.th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2.greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and{2., are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM wea{3.ning is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 2.st century, the EASM intensity is li{3.ly increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 2.th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2.2.0}

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin wang kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chao{2. LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG {2.gxing {2. Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric {2. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2.2.0}the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2.2.0}2. boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the{2. at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2.3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal{3. variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2.2.0}2. winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation on the dust aerosol distribution

A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation o...

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中国气象学会2.08年年会大气环境监测、预报与污染物控制分会场

作者： Xu Yue1,2. huijun wang1, Zifa wang1 and {3. fan11nansen-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing, China. 2.raduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, Beijing, China.

A new global three-dimensional transport model of mineral dust aerosols is developed and evaluated. The dust model is embedded in a general circulation model with conservative dynamical core and unique consideration of the polar transportation, which make the model stable in simulations. Comprehensive parameterizations of the emission and deposition processes from wang et al. [2.00] are modified to match the surface conditions and meteorological fields of the climate model. A 2.-year simulation from the dust model gives an estimation of dust mobilization of 1974 ± {2. Tg yr-1 and a global dust burden of about 2. Tg for the particles smaller than 10 μm. The vertical distribution, temporal variation on different time scales and surface concentration of the simulated mineral dust aerosols are compared with both observations and simulations from other models. The evaluation results show that the new dust model has the ability to reproduce the principal features of global dust transportation. The main deficiency of the model is the underestimation of the dust activity in East Asia during spring and the overestimation of the concentration in Central Pacific, which have also been reported by other model simulations. The global mean optical thickness of dust at 0.6{2.μm is 0.02. ± 0.004 in the model, which is comparable to the magnitude of sulphate aerosols. Such result indicates that both anthropogenic and natural sources need to be considered when evaluating the climate feedback of aerosols.

关键词： mineral dust aerosols, transport model, emission and deposition, optical thickness

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Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 13-18页

作者： Baoqiang Tian ke fan nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3.具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1... 详细信息

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3.具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3.,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2.北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2.2.年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

关键词：早期消融开始日期白令海季节性海冰波弗特高压统计预测模型

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Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian Paleoenvironmental Patterns

Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian...

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中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所2.06学术年会

作者： ZHANG Zhongshi~(1,2),wang huijun~2,GUO Zhengtang~(3.1),and JIANG Dabang~2.1 {3. of Geology and Geophysics,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 10002. 2 nansen-zhu international research {13.,{3. of atmospheric {2., chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 10002. 3.State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,{3. of Earth Environment, chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type ***,there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition,especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea *** numerical sensitivity experiments under dirent land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band,and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological *** consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore,the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1000-2.00 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.

关键词： Paratethys Sea retreat Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift paleoenvironmental pattern precipitation field Turan Plate

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Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第2期33卷 323-335页

作者： Zhiqing XU ke fan {2. {3. nansen–zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the chinese academy of sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South China Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(weakened) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.

关键词： convective quasi-biweekly oscillation interannual variation South China Sea western North Pacific spring

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Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over China in 1998 Using WRF and CCSM4

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2015年第5期32卷 577-584页

作者： MA Jiehua wang huijun {2. {3. Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences nansen-zhu {2.{3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2.of the Weather research and Forecasting（WRF3.2. regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

关键词： seasonal climate prediction dynamic downscaling summer precipitation CCSM4 WRF

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Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

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Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 892-901页

作者： YAN Qing1,2*, ZHANG ZhongShi3.1*, wang huijun1,4, JIANG DaBang1,4,5 & ZHENG WeiPeng6 1 nansen-{3. {2. research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3.Bjerknes Centre for Climate research, Uniresearch, Bergen N-5007, Norway 4 Climate Change research {13., chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China 5 key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China 6 National key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., China nansen-zhu {2.{3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Bjerknes Centre for Climate research UniResearch Bergen N-5007 Norway Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric {2. and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12.2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 2.st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3.to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3.data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词： Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature permanent El Ni?o numerical modeling extreme warming

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Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and middle East Asian air temperature

Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer No...

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作者： Jianqi Sun,huijun wang,and Wei Yuan 1 {2.-{3. {2. research Centre(NZC),institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,Beijmg,China. 2.China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijmg,China.

[1]The relationship between the summer(July-September) North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and simultaneous East Asian air temperature is *** results show that the SNAO is related to middle East Asian summer air temperature,however this linkage varies with time on decadal timescale:a strong connection appears after the late 1970s but a weak connection before the late *** analysis indicates that this instable relationship may have resulted from the shift of the SNAO mode around the late *** the period of 1979-2.03.the centers of the SNAO mode are located more eastward.A positive-phase(negative-phase) SNAO produces a strong lower-level divergence(convergence) over the Asian jet entrance region,in turn stimulates a strong upper-level convergence(divergence) via the Ekman *** a convergence (divergence) then excites a zonally oriented quasi-stationary barotropical Rossby wave train along the Asian upper-level *** the SNAO signal is transported eastward to East Asia,resulting in an anomalous summer air temperature over middle East Asia. However,in the period of 1951-1975,the centers of the SNAO mode are located more *** associated upper-level divergence/convergence is away from the Asian jet entrance region,and the SNAO signal cannot be transported eastward to East *** the connection is broken.

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