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Relationship between Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy and Eurasian Winter Cold Events

Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2020年第6期37卷 652-661页

作者： Xinping XU Shengping HE huijun wang Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The profound impact of solar irradiance variations on the decadal variability of Earth’s climate has been investigated by previous ***,it remains a challenge to quantify the energetic particle precipitation(EPP)influence on the surface climate,which is an emerging research *** solar wind is a source of magnetospheric EPP,and the total energy input from the solar wind into Earth’s magnetosphere(Ein)shows remarkable interdecadal and interannual variability.B ased on the new Ein index,this study reveals a significant interannual relationship between the annual mean Einand Eurasian cold extremes in the subsequent *** frequent cold events are observed over Eurasia(primarily north of 50°N)following the higher-than-normal Ein activity in the previous year,accompanied by more frequent cold events over northern Africa,and vice *** response pattern shows great resemblance to the first empirical orthogonal function of the variability of cold extremes over Eurasia,with a spatial correlation coefficient of *** pronounced intensification of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation events and poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track associated with the anomalously higher Ein favor the anomalous extreme atmospheric circulation events,and thus less frequent extreme cold temperatures over northern Eurasia on the interannual time *** is further hypothesized that the wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere and troposphere is favorable for the connection of Ein signals to tropospheric circulation and climate in the following winter.

关键词： Eurasian interannual winter

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Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1706-1722页

作者： Wenyue HE Bo SUN huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

atmospheric water vapor content(WVC)is a critical factor for East Asian winter *** study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying *** on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method,the leading mode(EOF1,R2.2..9%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern china and eastern china;the second mode(EOF2.R2.2..3%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern ***1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT)branches over northeastern china and eastern china,which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS)area in the preceding October-November(ON).EOF2.is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern china,which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern *** circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature *** SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2.winter WVC,and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

关键词： interannual variability leading modes watervapor content East Asia

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Strengthened Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO After the Mid-1990s during Austral Spring

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2017年第1期34卷 54-65页

作者： Tingting HAN huijun wang Jianqi SUN nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO （AAO） spatial signatures are restricted to the tropicsmidlatitudes （Antarctic-midlatitudes） of the Southern Hemisphere （SH）, with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the E1 Nifio-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of E1 Nifio-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

关键词： ENSO Antarctic Oscillation South Pacific SST austral spring decadal change

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Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in china

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： Baoqiang TIAN ke fan nansen–zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in china during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2..(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in china is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–{2.7 is 0.63.(2. For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2.initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2.and 1-month leads, CFSv2.has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4-, 3-, and 2.month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2. year-to-year increment prediction

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Stratospheric Precursor of Non-Uniform Variation in Early Spring Surface Temperature over Eurasia

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Journal of Meteorological research 2017年第2期31卷 389-396页

作者： Fei LI huijun wang Yongqi GAO nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China nansen Environmental and-Remote Sensing Centre and Bjerknes CentrejCor Climate research Bergen N-5006 Norway

The stratospheric influences on the non-uniform variation in early spring（March–April,MA）surface temperature over Eurasia is investigated based on the ERA-Interim,NCEP-1,and NCEP-2.reanalysis data for the period1980–2.16.A lead–lag correlation is found between preceding winter（December–February,DJF）stratospheric polar vortex displacements（SPVD）and the MA west–east seesaw pattern in surface temperature over *** analysis reveals that the East Asian jet stream may act as a bridge linking DJF SPVD and MA surface temperature over Eurasia.A positive change in SPVD is associated with a decelerated polar jet stream and an accelerated East Asian jet stream in the troposphere in *** East Asian jet stream signal can persist into *** a result,anomalous southerly/northerly winds prevail over western/eastern Eurasia,accounting for the west–east surface temperature seesaw over Eurasia.

关键词： stratospheric polar vortex displacement Eurasian surface temperature East Asian jet stream

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A major reorganization of Asian climate by the early Miocene

A major reorganization of Asian climate by the early Miocene

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中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所2.08学术年会

作者： Z.T.Guo~1,B.Sun~(1,2.,Z.S.Zhang~(1,3),S.Z.Peng~1,G.Q.Xiao~4,J.Y.Ge~4,Q.Z.Hao~1,Y.S.Qiao~1,M.Y.Liang~1, J.F.Liu~1,Q.Z.Yin~1,and J.J.Wei~1 1 key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment,institute of Geology and Geo{2.,chinese academy of Sciences,P.O.Box 982.,beijing,10002.,china 2.Shandong institute and Laboratory of Geological Sciences,Jinan,2.0013,china 3 nansen-zhu {12. research center,institute of atmospheric {2.,chinese academy of Sciences,beijing, 10002.,china 4 State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of Sciences,P.O. Box 17,Xian,710075,china

The global climate system experienced a series of drastic changes during the *** Asia,these include the climate transformation from a zonal pattern to a monsoon-dominated pattern,the disappearance of typical subtropical aridity,and the onset of inland *** major advances in the last two decades in characterizing and understanding these climate phenomena,disagreements persist relative to the timing,behaviors and underlying causes. This paper addresses these issues mainly based on two lines of ***,we compiled newly collected data from geological indicators of the Cenozoic environment in china as paleoenvironmental maps of ten *** confirming the earlier observation that a zonal climate pattern was transformed into a monsoonal one,the maps within the Miocene indicate that this change was achieved by the early Miocene,roughly consistent with the onset of loess deposition in *** a monsoon-like regime would have existed in the Eocene,it was restricted to tropical-subtropical *** latitudinal oscillations of the climate zones during the Paleogene are likely attributable to the imbalance in evolution of polar ice-sheets between the two hemispheres. Secondly,we examine the relevant depositional and soil forming processes of the Miocene loess-soil sequences to determine the circulation characteristics with emphasis on the early *** eolian deposition in the middle reaches of the Yellow River since the early Miocene firmly indicates the formation of inland deserts,which have been constantly maintained during the past 2. ***- size gradients between loess sections indicate northerly dust-carrying winds from northern sources,a clear indication of an Asian winter monsoon ***,welldeveloped Luvisols show evidence that moisture from the oceans reached northern *** evidence shows the coexistence of two kinds of circulations,one from the ocean carrying moisture and another from the inland des

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Pacific decadal oscillation and the decadal change in the intensity of the interannual variability of the South china Sea summer monsoon

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第2期10卷 162-167页

作者： fan Yi fan {2. nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

本研究表明,二十世纪南海夏季风的年际变率强度在一定程度上受到太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的调控,PDO处于暖(冷)位相时南海夏季风的年际变率强度偏强(弱)。热带太平洋海温的年际变率强度及南海夏季风与ENSO的关系在上述调控中起到重要作用... 详细信息

本研究表明,二十世纪南海夏季风的年际变率强度在一定程度上受到太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的调控,PDO处于暖(冷)位相时南海夏季风的年际变率强度偏强(弱)。热带太平洋海温的年际变率强度及南海夏季风与ENSO的关系在上述调控中起到重要作用。PDO处于暖位相时,热带太平洋海温变率偏大,ENSO事件偏强,因而沃克环流及西北太平洋反气旋异常的位置和强度均发生改变,最终导致南海夏季风与热带太平洋海温的相互作用更强,南海夏季风年际变率强度增大,反之亦然。

关键词：南海夏季风年际变率强度太平洋年代际振荡 ENSO

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An assessment of the subduction rate in the CMIP6 historical experiment

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第1期42卷 44-60页

作者： Shan Liu Xueyi Jing Xingrong Chen huijun wang National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing100081China National Supercomputing center in Wuxi Wuxi214315China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate *** its key indicator in climate signals,it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate *** this paper,we evaluated the ability of 2. climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the subduction *** general,the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation *** on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate,GISS-E2.1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)***,it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 2. CMIP6 *** addition,the model results demonstrate that,the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction *** analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics,for example,the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.

关键词： subduction rate CMIP6 climatology long-term trend

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Will boreal winter precipitation over china increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第8期57卷 921-926页

作者： MA JieHua wang huijun ZHANG Yin nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide *** snowstorms have raised an important scientific *** scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in china increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" *** then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2.concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate *** experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North *** Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all ***,because of increased transport of water vapor to china from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to *** addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关键词：大气环流模式冬季降水中国北方北极地区模式模拟夏季东亚冬季风二氧化碳浓度

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Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern china

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第3期4卷 173-180页

作者： LIU Ying fan ke {2. Hui-Jun nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the chinese academy of Scienees Beijing 100049 China

A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern china was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed *** was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern china between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42.above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm *** averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52.to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.2. to 0.2. for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.

关键词： statistical downscaling DEMETER south-eastern china summer precipitation anomaly

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