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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke fan {2. wang Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate {2. Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2.3.& wang huijun2.1. nansen-zhu international research center,{2., chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun wang {2. fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-{2. international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Improved ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM using regressive correction method

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1258-1265页

作者： FU WeiWei1 & ZHOU GuangQing2.1 nansen-{2. international research center (NZC), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 10002., china 2.State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {12. Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of At-mospheric physics, CAS, Beijing 10002., china nansen-zhu {2. research center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Beijing China

A regressive correction method is presented with the primary goal of improving ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM. It focuses on the correction of ocean-atmosphere exchanged fluxes. On the basis of numerical experiments and analysis, the method can be described as follows: first, driving the ocean model with heat and momentum flux computed from a long-term observation data set; the pro-duced SST is then applied to force the AGCM as its boundary condition; after that the AGCM’s simula-tion and the corresponding observation can be correlated by a linear regressive formula. Thus the re-gressive correction coefficients for the simulation with spatial and temporal variation could be obtained by linear fitting. Finally the coefficients are applied to redressing the variables used for the calculation of the exchanged air-sea flux in the coupled model when it starts integration. This method together with the anomaly coupling method is tested in a regional coupled model, which is composed of a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model and a high-resolution tropical Pacific Ocean model. The comparison of the results shows that it is superior to the anomaly coupling both in reducing the coupled model ‘climate drift’ and in improving the ENSO simulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

关键词： anomaly coupling regressive correction method regional coupled model ENSO simulation

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Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate center,china Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,china 2.nansen-zhu international research center,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese {12. of Sciences,Beijing 10002.,china 3 National Meteorological center,china Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-zhu {2. research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2.8} Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Modeling the impact of Australian Plate drift on Southern Hemisphere climate and environment

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chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第14期50卷 1495-1502页

作者： ZHOU Botao1,5, ZHAO Ping2. JIAN Zhimin3 & HE Jinhai4 1. nansen-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2. institute of Climate and Environment, chinese academy of Meteoro- logical Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 3. Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 2.0092. china 4. Department of atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing institute of Meteorol- ogy, Nanjing 2.0044, china 5. Graduate School of the chinese academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, china nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate School of the chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China institute of Climate and Environment Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji University Shanghai China Department of atmospheric Sciences Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing China

Using a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model with the present-day and 14 MaB.P. oceanic topogra- phy respectively, two experiments are implemented to inves- tigate the effect of different locations of Australian Plate on the atmospheric circulation in middle-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that when Austra- lian Plate lay south at 14 MaB.P., both anticyclone circula- tions in the subtropical oceans and cyclone circulation around 60°-70°S are strengthened. Subtropical highs and circumpolar low pressure appear stronger, which results in much stronger Antarctic Oscillation and shorter period of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) at 14 MaB.P. The rainfall and the surface air temperature also change correspondingly. The precipitation decreases around 40°S and increases around 60°-70°S, and the surface air temperature rises in high latitudes of the South Pacific and descends over the Weddell Sea and its north side. Besides, due to the changes of the temperatures and winds, Antarctic sea ice coverage also changes with its increasing in the Ross Sea and its west re- gions and decreasing in the Weddell Sea.

关键词：半球气候地球环球澳大利亚漂流物海洋地形学

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Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2.3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2.5 1 Climate Change research {2.,chinese academy of Sciences,Beijing 10002.,china 2.nansen-zhu international research Centre,institute of {12. physics,chinese academy of Sciences,Beijing 10002.,china 3 key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia,chinese academy of Sciences,Beijing 10002.,china 4 State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,china Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi’an China Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National center for atmospheric {2. to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

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Distinct Interannual Variability and Physical Mechanisms of Snowfall Frequency over the Eurasian Continent during Autumn and Winter

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1969-1983,I0011-I0013页

作者： Siyu ZHOU Bo SUN* huijun wang Yi ZHENG Jiarui CAI Huixin LI Botao ZHOU Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519080China nansen zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical *** first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North *** sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the *** increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall *** contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during *** the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit *** NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.

关键词： snowfall frequency Eurasian continent sea ice atmospheric circulation interannual variability Indian Ocean dipole

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