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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke fan {2. wang Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2.3 & {2. huijun2.1. Nansen-zhu International research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun wang {2. fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-zhu International {2. center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Kinetic and mechanism of the reaction between Cl and several mono-methyl branched alkanes

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第1期135卷 474-482页

作者： Yan Chen Weigang wang Junling Li Li Zhou Bo Shi Cici fan {2. wang Hao Zhang Hong Li Maofa Ge State key Laboratory for Structural Chemistry of Unstable and Stable Species Beijing National Laboratory for Molecular Sciences(BNLMS)CAS Research/Education Center for Excellence in Molecular SciencesInstitute of ChemistryChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China State key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijing 100012China National Engineering research center for Flue Gas Desulfurization Department of Environmental Science and EngineeringSichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China College of Chemistry and Materials Science Hebei Normal UniversityShijiazhuang 050024China

Branched alkanes are ubiquitous in the troposphere and play an important role in the chemical *** this work,the rate constants and products for the reaction of Cl atoms with 3-methylhexane and 2.methylheptane were measured at room temperature(2.8±0.2.)and atmospheric pressure using a conventional relative rate *** rate constants of 3-methylhexane and 2.methylheptane in units of cm~3/(mol·sec)are(3.09±0.31)×10^(-10)and(3.67±0.40)×10^(-10),***,the corresponding atmospheric lifetime of the studied branched alkanes with Cl was 6.92.89.90 hours and 5.82.75.69 hours,*** estimated atmospheric lifetimes indicated that the reaction with Cl atoms could be the most important atmospheric degradation pathway for 3-methylhexane *** gas-phase products of the reactions were identified and quantified,and particle-phase products were also *** atmosphere oxidation mechanism of Cl atoms with 3-methylhexane and 2.methylheptane is *** SOA yields of 3-methylhexane and 2.methylheptane from the reaction of Cl atoms were determined to be7.96%±0.89%and 13.35%±1.50%***,the results reveal that the primary loss process of branched alkanes is the reaction with Cl atoms,which impacts its degradation on a regional scale.

关键词： 3-Methylhexane 2.Methylheptane Chlorine atoms Kinetics Mechanism

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Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 2.th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2.& wang huijun1 1. Nansen-{2. International research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2.02.as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric {2., it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 2.th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2.greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and {2., are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 2.st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 2.th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

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Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2.& wang huijun1 1 Nansen-{2. International research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039, china Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China Nansen-zhu International research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2.00 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2.00 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of china, especially North china, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest china. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2.00, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over china, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over china on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2.3 decades climate changes over china, especially North china's drying and northwest china's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962.and 1976―1991, but low during 1963―1975 and 1992.2.00.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

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The retrieval of two-dimensional distribution of the earth's surface aerodynamic roughness using SAR image and TM thermal infrared image

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Science china Earth sciences 2004年第12期47卷 1134-1146页

作者： ZHANG Renhua 1 ,wang Jinfeng 1 ,zhu Caiying 1,2.,SUN Xiaomin 1 & zhu Zhilin 1 1.institute of Geographical sciences and Natural Resources,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100101,china 2.institute of Surveying and Mapping,Information Engineering University of the chinese People’s Liberation Army,Zhengzhou 450052.china chinese academy of {2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Beijing China Information Engineering University of the chinese People’s Liberation Army Institute of Surveying and Mapping Zhengzhou China

After having analyzed the requirement on the aerodynamic earth’s surface rough- ness in two-dimensional distribution in the research field of interaction between land surface and atmosphere, this paper presents a new way to calculate the aerodynamic roughness using the earth’s surface geometric roughness retrieved from SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and TM thermal infrared image data. On the one hand, the SPM (Small Perturbation Model) was used as a theoretical SAR backscattering model to describe the relationship between the SAR back- scattering coefficient and the earth’s surface geometric roughness and its dielectric constant re- trieved from the physical model between the soil thermal inertia and the soil surface moisture with the simultaneous TM thermal infrared image data and the ground microclimate data. On the basis of the SAR image matching with the TM image, the non-volume scattering surface geo- metric information was obtained from the SPM model at the TM image pixel scale, and the ground pixel surface’s equivalent geometric roughness—height standard RMS (Root Mean Square) was achieved from the geometric information by the transformation of the typical to- pographic factors. The vegetation (wheat, tree) height retrieved from spectrum model was also transferred into its equivalent geometric roughness. A completely two-dimensional distribution map of the equivalent geometric roughness over the experimental area was produced by the data mosaic technique. On the other hand, according to the atmospheric eddy currents theory, the aerodynamic surface roughness was iterated out with the atmosphere stability correction method using the wind and the temperature profiles data measured at several typical fields such as bare soil field and vegetation field. After having analyzed the effect of surface equivalent geo- metric roughness together with dynamic and thermodynamic factors on the aerodynamic surface roughness within the working area, this paper first establishe

关键词： surface geometric roughness, aerodynamic surface roughness, SAR backscattering model, moisture retrieval model, roughness transformation model.

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Effect of tillage state of paddy soils with heavy metal pollution on the nosZ gene of N_(2.O reductase

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第3期137卷 469-477页

作者： Liping Jiang Shiguang Liu Shanyun wang Libo Sun Guibing zhu key Laboratory of Drinking Water Science and Technology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China School of Environmental and Civil Engineering Jiangnan UniversityWuxi 214122China

Paddy soils are an important source of atmospheric nitrous oxide(N_(2.O).However,numerous studies have focused on N_(2.O production during the soil tillage period,neglecting the N_(2.O production during the dry fallow *** this study,we conducted an incubation experiment using the acetylene inhibition technique to investigate N_(2.O emission and reduction rates of paddy soil profiles(0-1 m)from Guangdong Province and Jinlin Province in china,with different heavy-metal pollution *** abundance and community structures of denitrifying bacteria were determined via quantitative-PCR and Illumina MiSeq sequencing of nosZ,nirK,and nirS *** results showed that the potential N_(2.O emission rate,N_(2.O production rate,and denitrification rate have decreased with increasing soil vertical depth and heavy-metal *** importantly,we found that the functional gene type of N_(2.O reductase switched with the tillage state of paddy soils,which cladeⅡnos Z genes were the dominant gene during the tillage period,while cladeⅠnos Z genes were the dominant gene during the dry fallow *** heavy-metal pollution has less effect on the niche differentiation of the nos Z *** N_(2.O emission rate was significantly regulated by the genus Bradyhizobium,which contains both N_(2.O reductase and nitrite reductase *** findings suggests that the nos Z gene of N_(2.O reductase can significantly impact the N_(2.O emission from paddy soils.

关键词： Pappy soils N_(2.O reductase nosZ gene Heavy-metal pollution

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A Novel Two-Section Co-Cavity Wavelength Tunable Sem iconductor Laser

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Journal of Semiconductors 1999年第9期 816-822页

作者： Zhao Yanrui, wang Wei, wang Xiaojie, {2. Hongliang, Zhou fan, Ma Chaohua(National research center for Optoelectronic Technology,institute of Semiconductors, The chinese academy of sciences, beijing\ 100083)

A novel wavelength tunable semiconductor laser based on DFB (Distributed Feedback) structure with two non\|uniform sections and co\|cavity is reported in this *** laser structure was grown by three\|step MOCVD and subsequently processed into the PBH\|LD (Planar Buried Heterostructure\|Laser Diode) *** device was tuned in two ways.A discontinuous wavelength tuning range of 11 1nm and a continuous wavelength tuning range of 2.6nm was achieved in different tuning *** one control current was used to have the wavelength tuned in both ways.

关键词： wang Co A Novel Two-Section Co-Cavity Wavelength Tunable Sem iconductor Laser

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