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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke fan {2. wang Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate{2. Bergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun wang {2. fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2.3 & wang huijun2.1. nansen-zhu international research center,{2., Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-{2. {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the{2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Distinct Interannual Variability and Physical Mechanisms of Snowfall Frequency over the Eurasian Continent during Autumn and Winter

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 1969-1983,I0011-I0013页

作者： Siyu ZHOU Bo SUN huijun wang Yi ZHENG Jiarui CAI Huixin LI Botao ZHOU Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519080China nansen zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter,and explores the underlying physical *** first EOF mode(EOF1)of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau(CSP)and Europe,with opposite anomalies over Central Asia(CA).EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia(EA).During autumn,EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas(KLS)and sea surface temperature(SST)over the North *** sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient,resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity,thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the *** increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall *** contrast,EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during *** the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),an anomalous deep cold low(warm high)occurs over Siberia(Europe)leading to increased(decreased)snowfall frequency over Siberia(Europe).The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA,which may inhibit *** NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn.

关键词： snowfall frequency Eurasian continent sea ice atmospheric circulation interannual variability Indian Ocean dipole

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Relationship and its instability of ENSO--Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2.& wang huijun1 1 {2.-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100039, china 1. nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2.00 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2.00 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of china, especially North china, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest china. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2.00, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over china, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over china on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2.3 decades climate changes over china, especially North china's drying and northwest china's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962.and 1976―1991, but low during 1963―1975 and 1992.2.00.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2.2.?

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin wang kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chao{2. LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG {2.gxing {2. Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu {2. {2. Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2.2.,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2.2./2. boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2.3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal {2. variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2.2./2. winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 2.th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2.& wang huijun1 1. {2.-zhu {2. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2.02.as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric{2., it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 2.th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2.greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and{2., are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 2.st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 2.th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

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Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 13-18页

作者： Baoqiang Tian ke fan nansen-zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1... 详细信息

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2.北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2.2.年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

关键词：早期消融开始日期白令海季节性海冰波弗特高压统计预测模型

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Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South china Sea and Western North Pacific

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第2期33卷 323-335页

作者： Zhiqing XU ke fan {2. wang nansen–zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South china Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(weakened) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.

关键词： convective quasi-biweekly oscillation interannual variation South china Sea western North Pacific spring

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