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2.00年后中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水减少及水汽输送特征

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大气科学 2019年第5期43卷 1109-1124页

作者：李湘瑞范可徐志清中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

本文研究了1961~2.16年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率的年代际变化特征,并进一步分析了该地区极端降水和普通降水的大气环流和水汽输送的差异。主要的研究结果表明:1961~2.16年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和... 详细信息

本文研究了1961~2.16年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率的年代际变化特征,并进一步分析了该地区极端降水和普通降水的大气环流和水汽输送的差异。主要的研究结果表明:1961~2.16年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率在2.00年前后发生显著年代际变化,2.00年后夏季极端降水天数和极端降水贡献率显著减少。与1984~1999年相比,2.00~2.16年在对流层高层从欧洲大陆、中亚到东北—蒙古地区,位势高度异常呈现出'正—负—正'的大气波列,从而造成北方东部地区上空为正压的位势高度正异常控制,伴随着下沉运动,大气层结趋于稳定,这些环流条件不利于极端降水发生。2.00年后负位相的太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)共同加强了北方东部地区上空的正位势高度异常。进一步研究表明,极端降水与普通降水的水汽输送和收支以及关键的局地大气系统存在着显著差异,较普通降水而言,极端降水在南北向水汽输送和收支上更强;北方东部地区低空为较强的闭合低压控制,并不断受到高层高位涡空气下传的影响。

关键词：中国北方东部极端降水日数极端降水贡献率水汽输送年代际变化

Homogenization of the Daily Land Surface Temperature over the Mainland of china from 1960 through 2.17

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1811-1822页

作者： Dan wang Aihui wang Xianghui KONG nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100029China

Land surface temperature(LST)is one of the most important factors in the land-atmosphere interaction *** measured LSTs may contain biases due to instrument replacement,changes in recording procedures,and other non-climatic *** study attempts to reduce the above biases in raw daily measurements and achieves a homogenized daily LST dataset over china using 2.60 stations from 1960 through *** high-quality land surface air temperature(LSAT)dataset is used to correct the LST warming biases especially evident during cold months in regions north of 40ºN due to the replacement of observation instruments around ***,the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH)method is adopted to detect and then adjust the daily observed LST *** total,3.68×10^(3) effective breakpoints in 1.65×106 monthly records(about 2.%)are detected.A large number of these effective breakpoints are located over large parts of the Sichuan Basin and southern *** the MASH procedure,LSTs at more than 80%of the breakpoints are adjusted within+/-0.5℃,and of the remaining breakpoints,only 10%are adjusted over 1.5℃.Compared to the raw LST dataset over the whole domain,the homogenization significantly reduces the mean LST magnitude and its interannual variability as well as its linear trend at most ***,we perform preliminary analysis upon the homogenized LST and find that the annual mean LST averaged across china shows a significant warming trend[0.2.℃(10 yr)^(-1)].The homogenized LST dataset can be further adapted for a variety of applications(e.g.,model evaluation and extreme event characterization).

关键词： land surface temperature(LST) daily observation homogenization MASH method variability

为什么NCEP-CFSv2.式对11月西伯利亚高压强度的预测性能较好

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大气科学 2021年第4期45卷 697-712页

作者：杨洪卿范可田宝强华维中山大学大气科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 珠海519082 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院成都610225 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029

作为东亚冬季风的关键系统,西伯利亚高压的变化对欧亚大陆冬季天气及气候异常产生重要影响。本文系统地评估了美国国家环境预测中心第二代气候预测系统(NCEP-CFSv2.National center for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System... 详细信息

作为东亚冬季风的关键系统,西伯利亚高压的变化对欧亚大陆冬季天气及气候异常产生重要影响。本文系统地评估了美国国家环境预测中心第二代气候预测系统(NCEP-CFSv2.National center for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System,version 2.对冬半年(11~2.)及逐月西伯利亚高压强度的预测效能。结果表明,NCEP-CFSv2.式仅对11月西伯利亚高压强度的预测效能较好,研究其成因发现11月西伯利亚高压强度主要受该地区热力、动力过程以及西伯利亚地区积雪状况的影响。在热力过程方面,NCEP-CFSv2.式可以较好地再现11月西伯利亚高压强度及其相联的该地区表层土壤温度、对外长波辐射等热力因素;在动力过程方面,模式能较好地再现11月西伯利亚高压强度及其相联的该地区对流层低层辐散环流、中高层下沉运动;同时,模式也能较好地再现11月西伯利亚高压强度与该地区积雪覆盖率之间的相互作用。因此,与11月西伯利亚高压相联的热力、动力过程和该地区积雪状况可能是11月西伯利亚高压强度的可预测来源,且NCEP-CFSv2.式能较好地再现这些可预测来源。

关键词： 11月西伯利亚高压强度 NCEP-CFSv2.式预测效能可预测来源

Seasonal variation of the temperature profile and its characteristics within urban roughness sublayer

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chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第3期54卷 468-473页

作者： wang XiQuan wang ZiFa GUO HU nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China beijing Meteorological Bureau Beijing 100089 China

By using conventional micro-meteorological observation data of beijing Yuetan Park Tower (180 m), the temperature profile of urban boundary layer (UBL), its characteristics and seasonal variation are analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) In winter, the interdiurnal surface air temperature varia- tion at the surface is not synchronized with that of the upper levels, other than in summer and other seasons, which illuminates the impacts of beijing’s geographical location, sky view factor and stably stratified nocturnal inversion. (2. Except that the stratification is unstable around noon, the stratifica- tion in the roof layer or above-roof layer is of seasonal variability, which is weak unstable or weak sta- ble in winter or summer respectively. This weak stable stratification possibly inhibits urban pollutant dispersion upwards in summer season. (3) The effect of urban building rooftop on the UBL thermal state has seasonal difference, that is, the rooftop plays the role of heating or cooling the urban roughness sublayer, in summer or winter respectively, which is similar to the effects of the Qing- hai-Tibet Plateau on the {2. thermal state.

关键词：城市边界层温度季节变更北京

Comparison of Ten Potential Evapotranspiration Models and Their Attribution Analyses for Ten chinese Drainage Basins

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020年第9期37卷 959-974页

作者： Ruiheng XIE Aihui wang School of atmospheric sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Potential evapotranspiration(EPET)is usually calculated by empirical methods from surface meteorological variables,such as temperature,radiation and wind *** in-situ measured pan evaporation(ETpan)can also be used as a proxy for *** this study,EPET values computed from ten models are compared with observed ETpan data in ten chinese river basins for the period 1961−*** daily observed meteorological variables at 2.67 stations are used as the input to those models,and a ranking scheme is applied to rank the statistical quantities(ratio of standard deviations,correlation coefficient,and ratio of trends)between ETpan and modeled EPET in different river *** are large deviations between the modeled EPET and the ETpan in both the magnitude and the annual trend at most *** eight of the basins(except for Southeast and Southwest china),ETpan shows decreasing trends with magnitudes ranging between−0.01 mm d−1 yr−1 and−0.03 mm d−1 yr−1,while the decreasing trends in modeled EPET are less than−0.01 mm d−1 yr−*** comparisons among different models in different river basins suggest that PETHam1 is the best model in the Pearl River basin,PETHam2.outperforms other models in the Huaihe River,Yangtze River and Yellow River basins,and PETFAO is the best model for the remaining *** analyses reveal that wind speed and sunshine duration are two important factors for decreasing EPET in most basins except in Southeast and Southwest *** increasing EPET trend in Southeast china is mainly attributed to the reduced relative humidity.

关键词： potential evapotranspiration model pan evaporation model comparison sensitivity analysis china

CFSv2.式对春季逐月南极涛动预测效能及成因分析

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气候与环境研究 2021年第6期26卷 621-636页

作者：肖哨田宝强范可中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 中山大学大气科学学院南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)广东珠海519082

系统评估了美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2.对1983~2.19年北半球春季逐月南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能及可能成因。结果表明,CFSv2.式对3月、4月和5月AAO空间模态预测效能较好,但是耦合模式仅对3月的AAO年际变化具有较好的预测能力,对4月和5... 详细信息

系统评估了美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2.对1983~2.19年北半球春季逐月南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能及可能成因。结果表明,CFSv2.式对3月、4月和5月AAO空间模态预测效能较好,但是耦合模式仅对3月的AAO年际变化具有较好的预测能力,对4月和5月AAO年际变化的预测能力较差。热带中东太平洋和澳大利亚以东太平洋海温异常有可能是3月AAO年际变化的可预测性来源。一方面,3月厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)与AAO之间关系显著,而4、5月两者之间关系减弱。3月ENSO激发PSA(Pacific–South American)波列传播到南太平洋上,通过影响南太平洋海温异常以及低层气旋性环流异常影响3月AAO的年际变化。另一方面,3月澳大利亚以东太平洋海温异常在副热带急流核心区域激发活跃的Rossby波列,该波列由澳大利亚东部向东南频散到南太平洋中高纬地区,造成该地区位势高度异常,使得副热带地区30°S西风减弱,南半球高纬60°S西风加强,进而影响AAO的变化。CFSv2.3月AAO的预测效能高于4月和5月的主要原因是CFSv2.式能够很好再现3月AAO与ENSO、澳大利亚以东海温之间的关系及其影响机制。

关键词： 3月南极涛动预测效能 ENSO 澳大利亚以东海温 CFSv2.式

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近几年我国霾污染实时季节预测概要

大气科学学报 2019年第1期42卷 2-13页

作者：尹志聪王会军段明铿南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院江苏南京210044 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029

近些年,中国东部经历了严重的霾污染,对人体健康、交通安全、生态系统以及社会经济有巨大的危害。在1周以内的霾污染预报之外,季节尺度的霾污染预测可以给减排治污措施的制定提供更长时间尺度的科学支撑。本文以年际增量为预测对象,选... 详细信息

近些年,中国东部经历了严重的霾污染,对人体健康、交通安全、生态系统以及社会经济有巨大的危害。在1周以内的霾污染预报之外,季节尺度的霾污染预测可以给减排治污措施的制定提供更长时间尺度的科学支撑。本文以年际增量为预测对象,选取前期外强迫因子为自变量,分别针对京津冀和长三角区域建立逐月的冬季霾日数季节尺度预测模型,并开展了实时的季节预测。总体来看,京津冀和长三角区域预测模型的性能大体处于相似的水平,均方根误差在2.d左右,对距平符号的捕捉率在80%以上,对霾日数变化的长期趋势具有很好的再现能力。在2.16/2.17年冬季京津冀霾日数实时预测中,模型预测的结果相对于常年值的定性结论全部准确,相对于前一年污染状况的结论大多数准确。在2.17/2.18年冬季长三角霾日数实时预测中,12.和1月的预测误差较小,2.的预测误差在2.d左右。

关键词：霾污染气候预测减排

Evaluation of the effect of air pollution control during the beijing 2.08 Olympic Games using Lidar data

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第13期55卷 1311-1316页

作者： YANG Ting wang ZiFa ZHANG Bai wang XiQuan wang Wei GBAUIDI Alex GONG YanBang Geography and Remote sensing research center Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun 130012 China nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

To examine the effect of pollution control measures on beijing air quality during the 2.08 Olympic Games, this paper analyzes the variation of aerosol extinction coefficient observed with a Dual-wavelength Polarized Lidar in beijing during the Olympic Games. The results show that (1) during the beijing Olympic Games, the aerosol extinction coefficient decreased to about 42.3% in the surface layer (below 2.0 m) compared with that in 2.07 under almost the same meteorological conditions, indicating the effectiveness of local air pollution control measures in beijing areas; (2. the analysis of the aerosol extinction coefficient obtained before (Jul. 2.–Aug. 7, 2.08) and during the beijing Olympic Games (Aug. 8–Aug. 2., 2.08) shows a maximum decrease of daily aerosol extinction coefficient in layer of 0.5-1.5 km. To elucidate such a phenomenon, the transport of PM10 from surrounding areas to beijing was simulated by NAQPMS (the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System) during Jul. 2. to Aug. 2., 2.08. Analysis of PM10 transport from neighboring areas indicated a decrease of 36.6% during the Olympic Games. This demonstrated the efficiency of pollution control measures in surrounding areas in improving air quality in beijing.

关键词： 2.08年北京奥运会控制效果空气污染激光雷达雷达数据空气质量预报 2.08年奥运会消光系数

The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2010年第4期3卷 207-212页

作者： wang Jun wang Hui-Jun nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

This paper uses Dobson spectrometer total ozone data,Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer(TOMS) data and radiosonde reports from Kunming,which is located in southwest china,from 1980 to 2.08 to analyze the total ozone-climate *** total ozone decadal long-term trend and abrupt change were studied using enhanced Dobson data whose missing data were amended by the TOMS *** linear regression was used for the selection of the key factors that influence total ozone,including temperatures,geopotential heights,depressions of the dew point,wind velocities,and total solar *** relationship between the selected factors and total ozone was analyzed using the methods of stepwise regression and partial least squares regression(PLSR).Results showed that although the PLSR method was slightly better and more reasonable to study the relationship than stepwise regression,while the two regression results were only slightly *** was also suggested that local climate,especially local circulation and temperature,were important for the variations in total ozone,and the local climate could almost linearly explain 80% of the variance of total *** relationship also indicated that the abrupt change of total ozone in the year 1994 may be related to abrupt local climate change.

关键词： Dobson TOMS Total ozone partial least squares regression