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Science china Earth {1. 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2,{1., institute of atmospheric physics,{3., Beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091. china 3. Graduate University of the{3., Beijing 1.0049, china nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke {1. huijun {3. Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. and Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections li{1. in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is li{1.ly to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth {1. 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1.2 & GAO YuZhong3.1.{1.-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 1.0049, china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 1.003., china nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five {3.y predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1.65-1.99, with an average relative root mean square error of 1.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model ma{3.s a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21. for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1.65-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun {1. ke {3. Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air {1. Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 3.% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

Improved ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM using regressive correction method

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Science china Earth {1. 2007年第8期50卷 1258-1265页

作者： FU WeiWei1 & ZHOU GuangQing2 1 nansen-zhu international {3. center (NZC), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, china 2 State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of At-mospheric {13., CAS, Beijing 100029, china nansen-{1. international {3. center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {1. sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Beijing China

A regressive correction method is presented with the primary goal of improving ENSO simulation in regional coupled GCM. It focuses on the correction of ocean-atmosphere exchanged fluxes. On the basis of numerical experiments and analysis, the method can be described as follows: first, driving the ocean model with heat and momentum flux computed from a long-term observation data set; the pro-duced SST is then applied to force the AGCM as its boundary condition; after that the AGCM’s simula-tion and the corresponding observation can be correlated by a linear regressive formula. Thus the re-gressive correction coefficients for the simulation with spatial and temporal variation could be obtained by linear fitting. Finally the coefficients are applied to redressing the variables used for the calculation of the exchanged air-sea flux in the coupled model when it starts integration. This method together with the anomaly coupling method is tested in a regional coupled model, which is composed of a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model and a high-resolution tropical Pacific Ocean model. The comparison of the results shows that it is superior to the anomaly coupling both in reducing the coupled model ‘climate drift’ and in improving the ENSO simulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

关键词： anomaly coupling regressive correction method regional coupled model ENSO simulation

Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 Climate Change research center,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 100029,china 2 nansen-zhu international research Centre,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 100029,china 3 key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 100029,china 4 State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment,chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 100049,china Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences nansen-{1. international {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment {1. for Temperate East Asia Chinese

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National center for {1. research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3.1 National Climate center,china Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,china 2 {3.-zhu international research center,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of {13.,Beijing 100029,china 3.National Meteorological center,china Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth {1. 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1. YUAN Wei2 & GAO YuZhong3.1.nansen-{1. international research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 china Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 1.0081. china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 1.003., china nansen-{1. international {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1.60s and the late 1.70s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast{1. via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern{1.. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern{1.. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

Modeling the impact of Australian Plate drift on Southern Hemisphere climate and environment

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chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第14期50卷 1495-1502页

作者： ZHOU Botao1,5, ZHAO Ping2, JIAN Zhimin3.& HE Jinhai4 1. nansen-zhu {3. research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. institute of Climate and Environment, chinese academy of Meteoro- logical {13., Beijing 100081, china 3. Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, china 4. Department of atmospheric {13., Nanjing institute of Meteorol- ogy, Nanjing 210044, china 5. Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10003., china nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China institute of Climate and Environment Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji University Shanghai 200092 China Department of atmospheric {1. Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044 China

Using a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model with the present-day and 1. MaB.P. oceanic topogra- phy respectively, two experiments are implemented to inves- tigate the effect of different locations of Australian Plate on the atmospheric circulation in middle-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that when Austra- lian Plate lay south at 1. MaB.P., both anticyclone circula- tions in the subtropical oceans and cyclone circulation around 60°-70°S are strengthened. Subtropical highs and circumpolar low pressure appear stronger, which results in much stronger Antarctic Oscillation and shorter period of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) at 1. MaB.P. The rainfall and the surface air temperature also change correspondingly. The precipitation decreases around 40°S and increases around 60°-70°S, and the surface air temperature rises in high latitudes of the South Pacific and descends over the Weddell Sea and its north side. Besides, due to the changes of the temperatures and winds, Antarctic sea ice coverage also changes with its increasing in the Ross Sea and its west re- gions and decreasing in the Weddell Sea.

关键词：半球气候地球环球澳大利亚漂流物海洋地形学

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth {1. 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2 & wang huijun1 1 nansen-{3. international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10003., china nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China nansen-{1. international {3. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1.51.to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 1.0 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1.51.2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of{1., especially North{1., but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest{1.. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1.51.to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over{1., which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over{1. on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3.decades climate changes over{1., especially North{1.'s drying and northwest{1.'s wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1.70s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3.8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1.51.1.62 and 1.76―1.91. but low during 1.63.1.75 and 1.92―2000.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.