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Science china Earth {1. 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2,{1., institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091. china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 1.0049, china nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke {1. huijun wang Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. and Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections li{1. in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is li{1.ly to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth {1. 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1.65-1.99, with an average relative root mean square error of 1.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21. for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1.65-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric {1. 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK huijun {1. ke fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing {1. Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air {1. Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

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Science china Earth {1. 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2 & wang huijun1 1 nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100039, china nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China nansen-{1. international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1.51.to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 1.0 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1.51.2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of{1., especially North{1., but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest{1.. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1.51.to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over{1., which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over{1. on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3 decades climate changes over{1., especially North{1.'s drying and northwest{1.'s wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1.70s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1.51.1.62 and 1.76―1.91. but low during 1.63―1.75 and 1.92―2000.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2 & wang huijun1 1. nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Tem-perate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1.48―2002 as derived from the United States National centers for Environmental Prediction and National center for Atmos-pheric research, it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1.60s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1.60s and mid- to late 1.70s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution center and the Hadley center for Climate Prediction and research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21.t century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation on the dust aerosol distribution

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A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation o...

Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

中国气象学会2008年年会大气环境监测、预报与污染物控制分会场

作者： Xu Yue1,2, huijun wang1, Zifa wang1 and ke fan11nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing, china. 2Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing, china.

A new global three-dimensional transport model of mineral dust aerosols is developed and evaluated. The dust model is embedded in a general circulation model with conservative dynamical core and unique consideration of the polar transportation, which make the model stable in simulations. Comprehensive parameterizations of the emission and deposition processes from {1. et al. [2000] are modified to match the surface conditions and meteorological fields of the climate model. A 20-year simulation from the dust model gives an estimation of dust mobilization of 1.74 ± 30 Tg yr-1.and a global dust burden of about 25 Tg for the particles smaller than 1. μm. The vertical distribution, temporal variation on different time scales and surface concentration of the simulated mineral dust aerosols are compared with both observations and simulations from other models. The evaluation results show that the new dust model has the ability to reproduce the principal features of global dust transportation. The main deficiency of the model is the underestimation of the dust activity in East Asia during spring and the overestimation of the concentration in Central Pacific, which have also been reported by other model simulations. The global mean optical thickness of dust at 0.63 μm is 0.028 ± 0.004 in the model, which is comparable to the magnitude of sulphate aerosols. Such result indicates that both anthropogenic and natural sources need to be considered when evaluating the climate feedback of aerosols.

关键词： mineral dust aerosols, transport model, emission and deposition, optical thickness

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Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 892-901页

作者： YAN Qing1,2*, ZHANG ZhongShi3,1*, wang huijun1,4, JIANG DaBang1,4,5 & ZHENG WeiPeng6 1 nansen-zhu international research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Bjerknes Centre for Climate research, Uniresearch, Bergen N-5007, Norway 4 Climate Change research center, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 5 key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 6 National key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china nansen-{1. international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Bjerknes Centre for Climate research UniResearch Bergen N-5007 Norway Climate Change research {1. Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment {1. for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {1. sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.1.–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21.t century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3—to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3 data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the wea{1.ned meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词： Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature permanent El Ni?o numerical modeling extreme warming

Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian Paleoenvironmental Patterns

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Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian...

Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and middle East Asian air temperature

中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所2006学术年会

作者： ZHANG Zhongshi~(1,2),wang huijun~2,GUO Zhengtang~(3,1),and JIANG Dabang~2 1 institute of Geology and Geophysics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029 2 nansen-zhu international research center,institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029 3 State key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment, chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type ***,there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition,especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea *** numerical sensitivity experiments under dirent land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band,and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological *** consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore,the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1.00-2000 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.

关键词： Paratethys Sea retreat Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift paleoenvironmental pattern precipitation field Turan Plate

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Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer No...