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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, lin meijing1,{2. gao yuzhong3 1 nansen-Zhu international Research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2.Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-Zhu international Research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the {2. circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2.00-2.07, with an average relative root mean square error of 2.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2.3 & WANG Huijun2.1. nansen-Zhu {2. Research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china nansen-Zhu international Research {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& gao {2. 1 nansen-Zhu international Research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2.8} Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, china nansen-Zhu international Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE ke fan Huijun WANG Fei LI key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen 5007Norway nansen-Zhu international Research {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude {2. teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation on the dust aerosol distribution

A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation o...

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中国气象学会2.08年年会大气环境监测、预报与污染物控制分会场

作者： Xu Yue1,2. Huijun Wang1, Zifa Wang1 and ke fan11{2.-Zhu international Research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing, china. 2.raduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing, china.

A new global three-dimensional transport model of mineral dust aerosols is developed and evaluated. The dust model is embedded in a general circulation model with conservative dynamical core and unique consideration of the polar transportation, which make the model stable in simulations. Comprehensive parameterizations of the emission and deposition processes from Wang et al. [2.00] are modified to match the surface conditions and meteorological fields of the climate model. A 2.-year simulation from the dust model gives an estimation of dust mobilization of 1974 ± 30 Tg yr-1 and a global dust burden of about 2. Tg for the particles smaller than 10 μm. The vertical distribution, temporal variation on different time scales and surface concentration of the simulated mineral dust aerosols are compared with both observations and simulations from other models. The evaluation results show that the new dust model has the ability to reproduce the principal features of global dust transportation. The main deficiency of the model is the underestimation of the dust activity in East Asia during spring and the overestimation of the concentration in Central Pacific, which have also been reported by other model simulations. The global mean optical thickness of dust at 0.63 μm is 0.02. ± 0.004 in the model, which is comparable to the magnitude of sulphate aerosols. Such result indicates that both anthropogenic and natural sources need to be considered when evaluating the climate feedback of aerosols.

关键词： mineral dust aerosols, transport model, emission and deposition, optical thickness

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG ke fan Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSO{2.I Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China nansen-Zhu international Research {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian institute for Air Research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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Influence of sea-land breeze on the formation and dissipation of severe dense fog and its burst reinforcement in the Yellow Sea coastal area,china

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Science china Earth sciences 2024年第2期67卷 432-449页

作者： Ya gao Duanyang LIU Shuqi YAN Wenjun ZHOU Hongbin WANG fan ZU Qin MEI Chuanxiang YI Ye SHENG key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of china Meteorological Administration Nanjing210041China Yancheng Meteorological Bureau Yancheng224000China Nanjing Joint institute for atmospheric {2. Nanjing210041China key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100086China

Based on the global reanalysis data of the National centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National center for {2. Research,the surface meteorological observation data,sounding data and satellite observation data,this paper comprehensively analyzes the evolution process and formation mechanism of a persistent severe dense fog process occurred on February 15–17,2.15 in Yancheng,eastern *** the numerical simulation experiment of Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model,we further analyze the impact of sea-land breeze on the formation and burst reinforcement of *** show that the precipitation caused by the southwesterly airflow in front of the upper-level trough and the low-pressure inverted trough are conducive to the formation of early rain fog,while the nighttime clear radiance under the control of surface cold high and the infiltration of weak cold advection are conducive to the formation and development of later radiation-advection *** WRF model simulates the fog evolution process,which is basically consistent with the actual fog area,and the simulation results are credible to a certain *** simulation results show that the establishment of sea breeze has an advection cooling effect on the near surface layer,which is conducive to the formation and development of the inversion layer on the near surface,providing stable stratification conditions for the formation and burst reinforcement of *** one hand,the strengthening of sea breeze circulation can continuously transport water vapor to the study *** the other,the occurrence of ultra-low level jet is favorable for the accumulation of low-level water *** the same time,the inversion intensity further strengthens,which is in favor of the burst reinforcement and long-term maintenance of fog.

关键词： Radiation-advection fog Sea-land breeze atmospheric boundary layer Fog burst reinforcement WRF model

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The response of Martian photoelectron boundary to the 2.18 global dust storm

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Science china Earth sciences 2024年第9期67卷 2772-2782页

作者： Yuqi WANG Jun CUI Yong WEI Zhaopeng WU Kai fan Zhaojin RONG Fei HE Yutian CAO Jiawei gao key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary physics Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Planetary Environmental and Astrobiological Research Laboratory(PEARL) School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology Chinese Academy of SciencesHefei 230026China

Extensive research efforts have revealed that the Martian dust storms can perturb the upper atmospheric condition and as a consequence,enhance plasma density and photoelectron flux in the ***,previous observational studies of the Martian dust storm impacts have been restricted to regions below 400 km,which limits our understanding of the Martian dust storm effects in the upper ionosphere and ***,based on the suprathermal electron measurements made by the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer onboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution,we identify with an automatic procedure the occurrences of all photoelectron boundary(PEB)crossings at solar zenith angle below 12.°(with a dust-free median altitude of about 600 km).Using the dayside PEB as a proxy of the upper ionospheric and magnetospheric condition,we analyze the variations of the PEB altitude during the 2.18 global dust storm(GDS)of Mars Year 34(MY34)and compare them with the period in MY33 when there was no global dust *** conclude that the column dust optical depth(CDOD)emerges as one of the main driving factors for PEB altitude variations during the *** analysis implies that the GDS can affect the Martian upper atmosphere and ionosphere over considerable distances and extended time scales.

关键词： Martian global dust storm Martian photoelectron boundary Upper ionosphere

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Multiple Uplift and Exhumation of the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau:Evidence from Low-Temperature Thermochronology

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2024年第3期98卷 569-584页

作者： WU Limin PENG Touping fan Weiming ZHAO Guochun gao Jianfeng DONG Xiaohan PENG Shili MIN Kang Tin Aung MYINT State key Laboratory of Isotope Geochemistry Guangzhou Institute of GeochemistryChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510640China chinese academy of {2. center for Excellence in Deep Earth Science Guangzhou 510640China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China chinese academy of {2. center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth {2. Beijing 100101China Department of Earth sciences The University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China State key Laboratory of Ore Deposit Geochemistry Institute of GeochemistryChinese Academy of SciencesGuiyang 550081China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiGuangdong 519085China Department of Geology University of MandalayMandalay 05011Myanmar

Since the Cenozoic,the Tibetan Plateau has experienced large-scale uplift and outgrowth due to the India-Asia ***,the mechanism and timing of these tectonic processes still remain ***,using apatite fission track dating and inverse thermal modeling,we explore the mechanism of different phases of rapid cooling for different batholiths and intrusions in the southeastern Tibetan *** contrast to previous views,we find that the coeval granitic batholith exposed in the same tectonic zone experienced differential fast uplift in different sites,indicating that the present Tibetan Plateau was the result of differential uplift rather than the entire lithosphere uplift related to lithospheric collapse during Cenozoic *** addition,we also suggest that the 5-2.Ma mantle-related magmatism should be regarded as the critical trigger for the widely coeval cooling event in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,because it led to the increase in atmospheric CO_(2.level and a hotter upper crust than before,which are efficient for suddenly fast rock weathering and ***,we propose that the current landform of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was the combined influences of tectonic and climate.

关键词： apatite fission track rapid cooling differential uplift magmatism southeastern Tibetan Plateau

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A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection:A 2. Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Conve...

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中国气象学会2.04年年会

作者： gao Shouting~1 Ping fan~1 Li Xiaofan~2.Tao Weikuo~3 (1 LAPC, institute of atmospheric physics chinese academy of sciences beijing, china 2.Joint center for Satellite Data Assimilation and NOAA/NESDIS/Office of Research and Applications Camp Springs, Maryland, 3 NASA/GSFC/Laboratory for Atmospheres Greenbelt, Maryland)

＜正＞Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2. simulations. A new vorticity vector （convective vorticity vector, CVV） is introduced in this study to analyze 2. cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2. tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2. x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and massintegrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0. 81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0. 18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical corr ponent of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

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