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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, lin meijing1,2 & gao yuzhong3 1 nansen-zhu international research center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences,{4., china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004., china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2,3 & WANG Huijun2 1. nansen-zhu international {4. {4., Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004., china nansen-zhu international research {4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA lin WANG kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG fangxing fan Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu international research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24.boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24.winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4.standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 13-18页

作者： Baoqiang Tian ke fan nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1... 详细信息

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.4.,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和4.%.

关键词：早期消融开始日期白令海季节性海冰波弗特高压统计预测模型

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Status of aquatic organisms resources and their environments in Yangtze River system(2017-2021)⋆

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Aquaculture and Fisheries 2024年第5期9卷 833-850页

作者： Haile Yang Li Shen Yongfeng He Huiwu Tian Lei gao Jinming Wu Zhigang Mei Nian Wei lin Wang Tingbing zhu Feifei Hu Jinling Gong Hongchun Du Xinbin Duan Huatang Deng Daoqun Wang Fengyue zhu Yunfeng Li fan Wu Huijun Ru Yan Zhang Junyi Li Junlin Yang Yuntao Zhou Dongdong fang Yinping Wang Danqing lin Yanping Yang Peijie Li Silei Liu Jian Yang Ping zhuang Sikai Wang Tao Zhang Gang Yang Wenbo Yang Lilai Yuan Kun Cao Shuo Xu Huiyuan Liu Zhiqiang Liang Chongrui Wang Hong Li Xiping Yuan Xin Yang Yilong Fu Yanping Zhang Haixin Zhang Zhiying Tao Sheng Wang Xiaoping gao Binsong Jin kemao Li Guojie Wang Shenglong Jian Yingqin Li Chenjiang Xue Chunyun Lei Shaowei Xue Yi Sun Bin zhu ke Shao Xingkun Hu Meihua Xiong Jun Du Bin He Tao Yan Yingying Huang Yuanchao Zou Biwen Xie Yongming Wang Bin Li Fei Liu Yaoyao Zhang Fei fan Zhijian Wang Jing Huang Haoran Gu Hailong Ge Yan Dan Yan Li Shuqiao Wang Chuang Zhang Lu Zhou Xue Wang Sheng Zeng Yan Xiang Xugang He Jianhui Qin Chengxing Xia Jie Hou Yifu Shi Lifang gao Zhiqiang zhu Hongbao Shen Yun Du Xuejun Duan Jiawu Xiong Deguo Yang Shaoping Liu Zhaohui Ni Hui Zhang Kai Liu Feng Zhao Yingren Li Jianwei Wang Qiwei Wei Yangtze River Fisheries research Institute Chinese Academy of Fishery SciencesWuhan430223China Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhan430072China Fishery Resource and Environment research center Chinese Academy of Fishery SciencesBeijing100141China key Laboratory of Freshwater Fisheries and Germplasm Resources Utilization Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsFreshwater Fisheries Research CenterChinese Academy of Fishery SciencesWuxi214081China East china Sea Fisheries research Institute Chinese Academy of Fishery SciencesShanghai200090China Institute of Fisheries Engineering Chinese Academy of Fishery SciencesBeijing100141China Hunan Fisheries Science Institute Changsha410153China Jiangxi Fisheries research Institute Nanchang330039China Jiujiang academy of Fishery sciences Jiujiang332000China School of Life sciences Nanchang UniversityNanchang330031China Qinghai Provincial Fishery Technology Extension center Xining810012China Yunnan academy of Fishery sciences Kunming650111China Institute of Hydroecology Ministry of Water Resources and Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhan430079China Fisheries Institute Sichuan Academy of Agricultural SciencesChengdu611731China School of Life sciences Neijiang Normal UniversityNeijiang641100China School of Life sciences Southwest UniversityChongqing400715China Chongqing Fishery sciences research Institute Chongqing401120China Guizhou Fisheries research Institute Guiyang550025China College of Fisheries Huazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhan430072China Hubei Fisheries Science research Institute Wuhan430070China Shaanxi Fisheries research Institute Xi’an710086China Innovation academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhan430077China Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of SciencesNanjing210008China Central South Inventory and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration Changsha410014China

The Yangtze River is the mother river of *** promote the aquatic ecosystem protection of the great river,the Project of Yangtze Fisheries Resources and Environment Investigation(2017-2021)supported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,*** carried out by 24.institutes and universities that located in the Yangtze River basin surveys the status of(1)fish species composition and spatial distribution,(2)current fish abundance,(3)endangered fishes,(4.Yangtze finless porpoise,(5)aquatic eco-environments,(6)water-level fluctuation areas,(7)capture fisheries and recreational fisheries of the Yangtze River mainstream and 10 of its main tributaries,including Yalong River,Heng River,Min River(including Dadu River),Chishui River,Tuo River,Jialing River,Wu River,Han River,Dongting Lake and Poyang *** results showed that there were 4.3 fish species(belonging to 163 genus,37 families,and 18 orders)before 2017,but only 323 fish species(including 15 new recorded exotic species)were recorded in the project of *** them,Cyprinus carpio,Carassius auratus,Hypophthalmichthys molitrix,Pelteobagrus fulvidraco,Coilia brachygnathus,Silurus asotus,Saurogobio dabryi,Ctenopharyngodon idellus,Pelteobagrus nitidus,Hemiculter leucisculus,Siniperca chuatsi,Coreius heterodon,Culter alburnus,Parabramis pekinensis,and Aristichthys nobilis were the dominant species across the whole Yangtze River *** is estimated that there were 886 million individuals weighing 124.8 million kg,merely equivalent to 27.3%of the resources in 1950s,30.9%of the resources in 1960s,or 58.7%of the resources in *** the new list of protected fishes that recorded in the Yangtze River system,only 15 of 29 were collected in this project of *** gladius has been affirmed to be Extinct by international Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN).The wild individuals of Tenualosa reevesii and Luciobrama macrocephalus have disappeared for many years and maybe have been extinct

关键词： Fishes Yangtze finless porpoise Resources Aquatic ecosystem Fisheries Background investigation Yangtze river system

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Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in china

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： Baoqiang TIAN ke fan nansen–zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in china during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in china is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–2017 is 0.63.(2) For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2 initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2-and 1-month leads, CFSv2 has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4., 3-, and 2-month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) year-to-year increment prediction

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A Heavy Rainfall Event in Autumn over beijing--Atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF

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Journal of Meteorological research 2018年第3期32卷 503-515页

作者： Xiangrui LI ke fan Entao YU nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225

Heavy rainfall events often occur in beijing during summer but rarely in autumn. However,during 3-5 September2015, an exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred in beijing. Based on the reanalysis data and the Weather research and Forecasting(WRF) model simulations, the main contributing factors and the predictability of this heavy rainfall event were examined through comprehensive analyses of vorticity advection and water vapor transport/budget. The results indicate that a "high-in-the-east-low-in-the-west" pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height over the beijing area played an important role. The 850-hPa low-level jet(LLJ) provided a mechanism for rising motion and transported abundant water vapor into the beijing area. Two-way nested hindcast experiments using WRF well reproduced the atmospheric circulation and LLJ. Quantitative analysis indicates that the WRF model with the rapid update cycle(RUC) land surface scheme and the single-moment 6-class(WSM6) microphysics scheme exhibited the best skill, and the model performance improved with a higher resolution. Further analysis indicates that the bias in the precipitation forecast was caused by the bias in water vapor transport.

关键词： heavy rainfall WRF model water vapor supply autumn beijing area

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Gravitational wave astronomy: the current status

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Science china(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2015年第12期58卷 3-43页

作者： BLAIR David JU Li ZHAO ChunNong WEN linQing CHU Qi fanG Qi CAI RongGen gao JiangRui lin XueChun LIU Dong WU ling-An zhu ZongHong REITZE David H. ARAI Koji ZHANG fan FLAMINIO Raffaele zhu XingJiang HOBBS George MANCHESTER Richard N. SHANNON Ryan M. BACCIGALUPI Carlo gao Wei XU Peng BIAN Xing CAO ZhouJian CHANG ZiJing DONG Peng GONG XueFei HUANG Shuanglin JU Peng LUO ZiRen QIANG Li'E TANG Wenlin WAN XiaoYun WANG Yue XU ShengNian ZANG YunLong ZHANG HaiPeng LAU Yun-Kau NI Wei-Tou School of Physics The University of Western Australia State key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics Institute of Theoretical Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences The School of Physics & Electronic Engineering Shanxi University Laboratory of All-Solid-State Light Sources Institute of Semiconductors Chinese Academy of Science State key Laboratroy of Modern Optical Instrumentation Department of Optical Engineering Zhejiang University Laboratory of Optical Physics Institute of Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Gravitational Wave and Cosmology Laboratory Department of Astronomy Beijing Normal University LIGO Laboratory California Institute of Technology Department of Physics University of Florida Department of Physics West Virginia University National Astronomical Observatory of Japan CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science international Centre for Radio Astronomy research Curtin University SISSA Astrophysics Sector Institute of Applied Mathematics Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of sciences Morningside center of Mathematics Chinese Academy of Sciences State key Laboratory of Scientific and Engineering Computing Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of Sciences Department of Mathematics Henan University Department of Mathematics Capital Normal University Department of Geophysics College of the Geology Engineering and Geomatics Chang'an University QUEST Centre of Quantum Engineering and Space-Time research Leibniz Universitt Hannover Max-Planck-Institut für Gravitationsphysik(Albert Einstein Institut) Aerospace Flight Dynamics Laboratory Beijing Aerospace Control Center Qian Xuesen Laboratory of Launch Vehicle Technology center for Gravitation and Cosmology Department of Physics Tsing Hua University

In the centenary year of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, this paper reviews the current status of gravitational wave astronomy across a spectrum which stretches from attohertz to kilohertz frequencies. Sect. 1 of this paper reviews the historical development of gravitational wave astronomy from Einstein's first prediction to our current understanding the spectrum. It is shown that detection of signals in the audio frequency spectrum can be expected very soon, and that a north-south pair of next generation detectors would provide large scientific benefits. Sect. 2 reviews the theory of gravitational waves and the principles of detection using laser interferometry. The state of the art Advanced LIGO detectors are then described. These detectors have a high chance of detecting the first events in the near future. Sect. 3 reviews the KAGRA detector currently under development in Japan,which will be the first laser interferometer detector to use cryogenic test masses. Sect. 4.of this paper reviews gravitational wave detection in the nanohertz frequency band using the technique of pulsar timing. Sect. 5 reviews the status of gravitational wave detection in the attohertz frequency band, detectable in the polarisation of the cosmic microwave background, and discusses the prospects for detection of primordial waves from the big bang. The techniques described in sects. 1–5 have already placed significant limits on the strength of gravitational wave sources. Sects. 6 and 7 review ambitious plans for future space based gravitational wave detectors in the millihertz frequency band. Sect. 6 presents a roadmap for development of space based gravitational wave detectors by china while sect. 7 discusses a key enabling technology for space interferometry known as time delay interferometry.

关键词： gravitational waves ground based detectors pulsar timing spaced based detectors CMB

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Chemoprophylaxis, diagnosis, treatments, and discharge management of COVID-19: An evidence-based clinical practice guideline(updated version)

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Military Medical research 2020年第3期7卷 249-282页

作者： Ying-Hui Jin Qing-Yuan Zhan Zhi-Yong Peng Xue-Qun Ren Xun-Tao Yin lin Cai Yu-Feng Yuan Ji-Rong Yue Xiao-Chun Zhang Qi-Wen Yang Jianguang Ji Jian Xia Yi-Rong Li Fu-Xiang Zhou Ya-Dong gao zhui Yu Feng Xu Ming-Li Tu Li-Ming Tan Min Yang fang Chen Xiao-Ju Zhang Mei Zeng Yu zhu Xin-Can Liu Jian Yang Dong-Chi Zhao Yu-Feng Ding Ning Hou Fu-Bing Wang Hao Chen Yong-Gang Zhang Wei Li Wen Chen Yue-Xian Shi Xiu-Zhi Yang Xue-Jun Wang Yan-Jun Zhong Ming-Juan Zhao Bing-Hui Li lin-Lu Ma Hao Zi Na Wang Yun-Yun Wang Shao-Fu Yu Lu-Yao Li Qiao Huang Hong Weng Xiang-Ying Ren Li-Sha Luo Man-Ru fan Di Huang Hong-Yang Xue lin-Xin Yu Jin-Ping gao Tong Deng Xian-Tao Zeng Hong-Jun Li Zhen-Shun Cheng Xiao-Mei Yao Xing-Huan Wang center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China National Clinical research center for Respiratory Diseases China-Japan Friendship HospitalBeijing 100029China Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine China-Japan Friendship HospitalBeijing 10029China Leishenshan Hospital in Wuhan Wuhan 430200China Department of Critical Care Medicine Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China Institutes of Evidence-based Medicine and Knowledge Translation Henan UniversityKaifeng 475000HenanChina Department of Medical Imaging Guizhou Provincial People’s HospitalGuiyang 550002China Departments of Orthopedics Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China National Clinical research center for Geriatrics West China Hospital of Sichuan UniversityChengdu 610041China Department of Geriatrics West China Hospital of Sichuan UniversityChengdu 610041China Department of Radiology Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China Department of Clinical Laboratory Peking Union Medical College Hospital(PUMCH)Peking Union Medical CollegeChinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS)Beijing 100730China center for Primary Health Care research Lund University and Region Skåne25002 MalmöSweden Emergency center Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 403371China Department of Allergology Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China Department of Radiation and Medical Oncology Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 43071China Department of Critical Care Medicine Renmin Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430060China Department of Emergency Medicine and Chest Pain center Qilu Hospital of Shandong UniversityJinan 250002China Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Suizhou Central HospitalHubei University of MedicineSuizhou 441300HubeiChina Department of Clinic Pharmacy Second People’s Hospital of Huaihua Ci

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)is the cause of a rapidly spreading illness,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),affecting more than seventeen million people around the *** and treatment guidelines for clinicians caring for patients are *** the early stage,we have issued"A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)infected pneumonia(standard version)";now there are many direct evidences emerged and may change some of previous recommendations and it is ripe for develop an evidence-based *** formed a working group of clinical experts and *** steering group members proposed 29 questions that are relevant to the management of COVID-19 covering the following areas:chemoprophylaxis,diagnosis,treatments,and discharge *** searched the literature for direct evidence on the management of COVID-19,and assessed its certainty generated recommendations using the Grading of Recommendations,Assessment,Development and Evaluation(GRADE)*** were either strong or weak,or in the form of ungraded consensus-based ***,we issued 34.*** them,6 were strong recommendations for,14.were weak recommendations for,3 were weak recommendations against and 11 were ungraded consensus-based *** covered topics of chemoprophylaxis(including agents and Traditional {4. Medicine(TCM)agents),diagnosis(including clinical manifestations,reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR),respiratory tract specimens,IgM and IgG antibody tests,chest computed tomography,chest X-ray,and CT features of asymptomatic infections),treatments(including lopinavirritonavir,umifenovir,favipiravir,interferon,remdesivir,combination of antiviral drugs,hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine,interleukin-6 inhibitors,interleukin-1 inhibitors,glucocorticoid,qingfei paidu decoction,lianhua qingwen granules/capsules,convalescent plasma,lung

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Recommendation Chemoprophylaxis Diagnosis Treatment Discharge management Traditional chinese medicine guideline

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Influence of Low-frequency Solar Forcing on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on HadCM3 and Observations

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2018年第9期35卷 1205-1215页

作者： Jiapeng MIAO Tao WANG Huijun WANG Yongqi gao nansen-zhu international research Centez Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China key Laboratory of Meteorological Disastez Nanjing University of lnformation Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Climate Change research Centez chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100029China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center/Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5006Norway University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with Had CM3（Hadley Centre Coupled Model,version 3）. We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance（TSI） increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature（SST） anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall,when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850–1970.

关键词： solar forcing East Asian winter monsoon Atlantic sea surface temperature Rossby wave train

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