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Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： fan ke1, lin meijing1,2 & gao yuzhong3 1 nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

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Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： fan ke1,2,3 & WANG Huijun2 1. nansen-zhu international research center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china nansen-zhu international research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2 & gao yuzhong3 1 nansen-zhu international research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 china Meteorological Administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, china nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA lin WANG kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG fangxing fan Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao zhu Tianjun ZHOU Jiang zhu international center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China nansen-zhu international research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the institute of atmospheric physics at the chinese academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in china will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第2期17卷 13-18页

作者： Baoqiang Tian ke fan nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina School of atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及1... 详细信息

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

关键词：早期消融开始日期白令海季节性海冰波弗特高压统计预测模型

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Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in china

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： Baoqiang TIAN ke fan nansen–zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in china during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in china is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–2017 is 0.63.(2) For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2 initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2-and 1-month leads, CFSv2 has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4-, 3-, and 2-month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) year-to-year increment prediction

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A Heavy Rainfall Event in Autumn over beijing--atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF

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Journal of Meteorological research 2018年第3期32卷 503-515页

作者： Xiangrui LI ke fan Entao YU nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225

Heavy rainfall events often occur in beijing during summer but rarely in autumn. However,during 3-5 September2015, an exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred in beijing. Based on the reanalysis data and the Weather research and Forecasting(WRF) model simulations, the main contributing factors and the predictability of this heavy rainfall event were examined through comprehensive analyses of vorticity advection and water vapor transport/budget. The results indicate that a "high-in-the-east-low-in-the-west" pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height over the beijing area played an important role. The 850-hPa low-level jet(LLJ) provided a mechanism for rising motion and transported abundant water vapor into the beijing area. Two-way nested hindcast experiments using WRF well reproduced the atmospheric circulation and LLJ. Quantitative analysis indicates that the WRF model with the rapid update cycle(RUC) land surface scheme and the single-moment 6-class(WSM6) microphysics scheme exhibited the best skill, and the model performance improved with a higher resolution. Further analysis indicates that the bias in the precipitation forecast was caused by the bias in water vapor transport.

关键词： heavy rainfall WRF model water vapor supply autumn beijing area

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Influence of Low-frequency Solar Forcing on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on HadCM3 and Observations

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2018年第9期35卷 1205-1215页

作者： Jiapeng MIAO Tao WANG Huijun WANG Yongqi gao nansen-zhu international research Centez institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China key Laboratory of Meteorological Disastez Nanjing University of lnformation Science and Technology Nanjing 210044China Climate Change research Centez chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100029China nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center/Bjerknes Centre for Climate research Bergen 5006Norway University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with Had CM3（Hadley Centre Coupled Model,version 3）. We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance（TSI） increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature（SST） anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall,when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850–1970.

关键词： solar forcing East Asian winter monsoon Atlantic sea surface temperature Rossby wave train

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A multidecadal oscillation in the northeastern Pacific

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第4期9卷 315-326页

作者： CHEN Dong WANG Hui-Jun YANG Song gao Yaa nansen-zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/international Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina

The internal modes of the North Pacific can lead to climatic oscillations through ocean-atmosphere interactions and induce global climate *** best example is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but this fails to explain many climate phenomena. Here, another multidecadal variability over the North Pacific is described, found by analyzing reconstructed data covering the past 140 years. It is named the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation （PMO）, with anomalously high/low SSTs over the northeastern Pacific, and a quasi-60-year cycle. Related to this low-frequency variability of SST, the global mean temperature and precipitation present significant interdecadal differences. More importantly, the PMO index leads the global mean surface air temperature and SST by one to three years. The Arctic Oscillation pattern and atmospheric circulations are shown to change substantially with the transition of the PMO mode from positive to negative phases. This multidecadal oscillation improves the prospect for a long-term forecast of the global warming trend, since the PMO bears a remarkable relationship with global temperature.

关键词： Climate change multidecadal oscillation seasurface temperature Arcticoscillation Paci^c

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CFSv2模式对春季逐月南极涛动预测效能及成因分析

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气候与环境研究 2021年第6期26卷 621-636页

作者：肖哨田宝强范可中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 中山大学大气科学学院南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)广东珠海519082

系统评估了美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2)对1983~2019年北半球春季逐月南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能及可能成因。结果表明,CFSv2模式对3月、4月和5月AAO空间模态预测效能较好,但是耦合模式仅对3月的AAO年际变化具有较好的预测能力,对4月和5... 详细信息

系统评估了美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2)对1983~2019年北半球春季逐月南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能及可能成因。结果表明,CFSv2模式对3月、4月和5月AAO空间模态预测效能较好,但是耦合模式仅对3月的AAO年际变化具有较好的预测能力,对4月和5月AAO年际变化的预测能力较差。热带中东太平洋和澳大利亚以东太平洋海温异常有可能是3月AAO年际变化的可预测性来源。一方面,3月厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)与AAO之间关系显著,而4、5月两者之间关系减弱。3月ENSO激发PSA(Pacific–South American)波列传播到南太平洋上,通过影响南太平洋海温异常以及低层气旋性环流异常影响3月AAO的年际变化。另一方面,3月澳大利亚以东太平洋海温异常在副热带急流核心区域激发活跃的Rossby波列,该波列由澳大利亚东部向东南频散到南太平洋中高纬地区,造成该地区位势高度异常,使得副热带地区30°S西风减弱,南半球高纬60°S西风加强,进而影响AAO的变化。CFSv2对3月AAO的预测效能高于4月和5月的主要原因是CFSv2模式能够很好再现3月AAO与ENSO、澳大利亚以东海温之间的关系及其影响机制。

关键词： 3月南极涛动预测效能 ENSO 澳大利亚以东海温 CFSv2模式

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