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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

Infectious disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 258-272页

作者： Janyce eunice Gnanvi KolawoléValère Salako Gaëtan Brezesky Kotanmi Romain GlèlèKakaïPhd Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières Universitéd’Abomey-Calavi04 BP 1525CotonouBenin

Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in december 2019(COVId-19),numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease,predict its future course and determine the impact of different control *** this study,we conducted a global systematic literature review to summarize trends in the modelling techniques used for Covid-19 from January 1st,2020 to November 30th,*** further examined the accuracy and precision of predictions by comparing predicted and observed values for cumulative cases and deaths as well as uncertainties of these *** an initial 4311 peer-reviewed articles and preprints found with our defined keywords,242 were fully *** studies were done on Asian(78.93%)and European(59.09%)*** of them used compartmental models(namely SIR and SEIR)(46.1%)and statistical models(growth models and time series)(31.8%)while few used artificial intelligence(6.7%),Bayesian approach(4.7%),Network models(2.3%)and Agent-based models(1.3%).For the number of cumulative cases,the ratio of the predicted over the observed values and the ratio of the amplitude of confidence interval(CI)or credibility interval(CrI)of predictions and the central value were on average larger than 1 indicating cases of inaccurate and imprecise predictions,and large variation across *** was no clear difference among models used for these two *** 75%of predictions that provided CI or CrI,observed values fall within the 95%CI or CrI of the cumulative cases *** 3.7%of the studies predicted the cumulative number of *** 70%of the predictions,the ratio of predicted over observed cumulative deaths was less or close to ***,the Bayesian model made predictions closer to reality than classical statistical models,although these differences are only suggestive due to the small number of predictions within our dataset(9 in total).In addition,we found a significant neg

关键词： Predictions Accuracy Precision SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Ratio

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More than boric acid:Increasing relevance of boron in medicine

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World Journal of Translational Medicine 2018年第1期7卷 1-4页

作者： eunice d Farfán-garcía Emily L Castillo-garcía Marvin A Soriano-Ursúa department of Physiology Escuela Superior de Medicina Instituto Politécnico Nacional

Although boron has been a chemical element of interest since the ancient times,only a few boron-containing compounds(BCCs)had been used for medicinal purposes before the 21^(st) *** these,only boric acid has been explored in multiple therapeutic ***,it is common to extrapolate from boric acid to all BCCs,supposing a similar biological ***,boric acid is just one of dozens of BCCs in nature and thousands available from chemical ***,there is a boom in research on new BCCs as potential tools in the prevention,diagnosis and therapy of human *** herein discuss the new role of BCCs in drug development,with emphasis on the compounds for which a mechanism of action has been proposed or *** of data gathered in recent years,BCCs have expanded beyond the well-known fields of antimicrobial and antineoplastic agents,now being explored for their possible use as enzyme inhibitors,regulators of protein expression and modulators of the immune response,as well as in *** suggest that translational medicine can accelerate the medicinal applications of BCCs,which is especially important for the human diseases that are generating a high global burden.

关键词： Boron diagnosis drug development drug targets Immunological processes

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Probabilistic tractography of the posterior subthalamic area in Parkinson’s disease patients

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Journal of Biomedical Science and Engineering 2013年第3期6卷 381-390页

作者： M.G.garcIa-Gomar Luis Concha S.Alcauter J.Soto Abraham J.d.Carrillo-Ruiz G.Castro farfan Francisco Velasco Campos Neurobiology Institute UNAM Campus JuriquillaJuriquillaQueretaroMexico National Institute of Psychiatry“Ramón de la Fuente Muniz” México CityMéxico Unit for Stereotactic and Functional Neurosurgery and Radiosurgery México General HospitalMéxico CityMéxico

deep brain stimulation (dBS) is a non-pharmacological treatment for Parkinson’s disease (Pd), and its efficacy depends largely on which anatomical structure (target) is stimulated. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is one of the most commonly used targets, but stimulation of new targets within the posterior sub-thalamic area (PSA), comprising a group of white matter fibers known as prelemniscal radiations (Raprl), as well as the caudal zonaincerta nucleus (Zic), have proven to be superior at improving certain clinical symptoms. despite their clinical usefulness, their anatomical connectivity has not been completely described in humans. We performed constrained spherical deconvolution of the signal in diffusion-weighted images and subsequent tractography as a means to non-invasively define the connectivity of the Raprl and Zic in a group of five patients with Pd. Further, we used track-density imaging, a novel method to improve the spatial resolution of the acquired images, in order to visualize the small subregions that comprise the PSA with a voxel resolution of 0.2 × 0.2 × 0.2 mm3. Both Raprl and Zic demonstrated high probability of connectivity with the dorsal brainstem, cerebellum, subcortical nuclei (globus pallidum ventral, lateral thalamic nuclei), and cortical areas (orbitofrontal cortex, primary and supplementary motor cortex areas). The connectivity patterns were re-producible between patients and were discretely organized as the tracts entered/exited the PSA, depending on their end points. These findings indicate that the PSA is part of the neuronal circuitry controlling movement, and the precise characterization of its connectivity will aid in our understanding of the net-works involved in Pd and how they can be modulated with dBS in order to alleviate symptoms.

关键词： Parkinson disease(Pd) Posterior Subthalamic Area(PSA) Tractography Track-density Images(TdI)

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视线聚焦2019中国国际大学生时装周 751d·PARK“爆炸式”上演青春活力

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时尚北京 2019年第7期 154-157页

作者： eunice

时尚是什么?每个人都对时尚有不同理解,没有人能给出一个标准答案。服装设计师们总是可以将自己的理解通过面料、色彩、线条等方式展示出设计风格,将自己的抽象情绪用具象的方式表达出来。在刚结束的尚坤塬·2019中国国际大学生时装周... 详细信息

时尚是什么?每个人都对时尚有不同理解,没有人能给出一个标准答案。服装设计师们总是可以将自己的理解通过面料、色彩、线条等方式展示出设计风格,将自己的抽象情绪用具象的方式表达出来。在刚结束的尚坤塬·2019中国国际大学生时装周秀场上,年轻一代设计师发展学校的特点,采用新奇的创想展现着对时尚的重新定义,跟随小编一起回顾学生设计们带来的精彩瞬间。

关键词：时装周湖北美术学院中国美术学院浙江理工大学服装学院线聚焦青春活力

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Arsenic Removal from Zimapan Contaminated Water Monitored by the Tyndall Effect

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2015年第5期6卷 538-551页

作者： eunice Vera-Aguilar Eduardo López-Sandoval Juan José Godina-Nava Mariano Enrique Cebrián-garcía Octavio López-Riquelme Miguel Angel Rodríguez-Segura Blanca Estela Zendejas-Leal Carlos Vázquez-López departamento de Farmacología Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN México D.F. México departamento de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz Ilhéus Brazil departamento de Física Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del IPN México D.F. México

In Zimapan Valley, Mexico, up to 1.1 mg·L-1 of arsenic concentrations have been detected in deep wells that are used as drinking water supply for almost 39,000 people, which could have been exposed to levels higher than 10 μg·L-1 of arsenic, the maximum level recommended by the World Health Organization. Chronic consumption of water contaminated with arsenic can cause several diseases, including cancer. For it, the implementation of practical and economical methods to remove arsenic from drinking water is crucial to protect the population health. In this work, an electrochemical method to remove arsenic from drinking water is described. The process, monitored by Tyndall effect, utilizes Cu2+ and Zn2+ ions from a brass electrode in an electrochemical cell with water as electrolyte. Results show that the EC process reduces the concentration of the arsenic diluted in Zimapan water to a level below the limit of detection of the atomic absorption spectrophotometer employed. Arsenic was removed through the formation of Cu and Zn arsenic compounds. Cu2+ and Zn2+ ions form a hydroxide and eventually polycrystalline precipitation of kottigite and cornubite complexes (identified by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction), which are then filtered to eliminate the precipitated arsenic compounds.

关键词： Arsenic Removal Turbidity Tyndall Effect Groundwater Arsenic-Contamination Electro-Flocculation Brass Electrodes

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Liver resection versus liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria:a meta-analysis of 18,421 patients

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Hepatobiliary Surgery and Nutrition 2022年第1期11卷 78-93,I0009-I0013页

作者： Jin Hean Koh darren Jun Hao Tan Yuki Ong Wen Hui Lim Cheng Han Ng Phoebe Wen Lin Tay Jie Ning Yong Mark d.Muthiah eunice X.Tan Ning Qi Pang Beom Kyung Kim Nicholas Syn Alfred Kow Brian K.P.Goh daniel Q.Huang Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of MedicineNational University HospitalSingaporeSingapore National University Centre for Organ Transplantation National University Health SystemSingaporeSingapore division of Hepatobiliary&Pancreatic Surgery Department of SurgeryNational University HospitalSingaporeSingapore department of Internal Medicine Yonsei University College of MedicineSeoulRepublic of Korea Yonsei Liver Center Severance HospitalYonsei University Health SystemSeoulRepublic of Korea Biostatistics and Modelling domain Saw Swee Hock School of Public HealthNational University of Singapore and National University Health SystemSingaporeSingapore department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary and Transplant Surgery Division of SurgerySingapore General HospitalSingaporeSingapore Liver Transplant Service SingHealth Duke-NUS Transplant CentreSingaporeSingapore

Background:Outcomes after liver resection(LR)and liver transplantation(LT)for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)are heterogenous and may vary by region,over time periods and disease *** aimed to compare overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(dFS)between LT versus LR for HCC within the Milan ***:Two authors independently searched Medline and Embase databases for studies comparing survival after LT and LR for patients with HCC meeting the Milan ***-analyses and meta-regression were conducted using random-effects ***:We screened 2,278 studies and included 35 studies with 18,421 *** was associated with poorer OS[hazard ratio(HR)=1.44;95%confidence interval(CI):1.14-1.81;Pd dFS(HR=2.71;95%CI:2.23-3.28;Pd to LT,with similar findings among intention-to-treat(ITT)*** uninodular disease,OS in LR was comparable to LT(P=0.13)but dFS remained poorer(HR=2.95;95%CI:2.30-3.79;Pd poorer OS versus LT in North America and Europe(P≤0.01),but not Asia(P=0.25).LR had inferior survival versus LT in studies completed before 2010(P=0.01),but not after 2010(P=0.12).Cohorts that underwent enhanced surveillance had comparable OS after LT and LR(P=0.33),but cohorts undergoing usual surveillance had worse OS after LR(HR=1.95;95%CI:1.24-3.07;Pd to *** between LR and LT were similar in uninodular *** risk of recurrence after LR is threefold that of LT.

关键词： Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) liver resection(LR) liver transplant survival recurrence

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尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州市售灌木芒果、腰果、秋葵、芝麻和高粱的真菌毒素污染情况研究

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粮油食品科技 2021年第6期29卷 71-82页

作者： Isaac M Ogara Michael Sulyok Anthony Negedu Kolawole I Ayeni Zega M Zebedee John d Mamman Abiodun Adedokun Janet I Ogara eunice A Adgidzi Chibundu N Ezekiel Rudolf Krska 纳萨拉瓦州立大学沙布拉菲亚校区农学院农学系PMB 335尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州凯菲950101 维也纳自然资源与生命科学大学(BOKU) 生物分析与农业代谢组学研究所农业生物技术学院(IFA-Tulln)奥地利图尔恩20.3430 原材料研究与发展委员会尼日利亚阿布贾迈塔马904101 巴布科克大学微生物系尼日利亚奥贡州伊利山雷莫121103 纳萨拉瓦州立大学农业学院基础科学系化学组PMB 335 尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州拉菲亚950101 纳萨拉瓦州立大学农业学院家庭科学系沙布拉菲亚校区PMB 335尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州拉菲亚950101

采用LC-MS/MS真菌毒素检测法,对尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州市场出售的食物作物(灌木芒果(n=12)、烤腰果(n=12)、干秋葵(n=12)、芝麻(n=35)、高粱(n=36))进行了分析研究。结果显示具致肝癌性黄曲霉毒素B1在灌木芒果、干秋葵和高粱样品中检出率... 详细信息

采用LC-MS/MS真菌毒素检测法,对尼日利亚纳萨拉瓦州市场出售的食物作物(灌木芒果(n=12)、烤腰果(n=12)、干秋葵(n=12)、芝麻(n=35)、高粱(n=36))进行了分析研究。结果显示具致肝癌性黄曲霉毒素B1在灌木芒果、干秋葵和高粱样品中检出率分别为42%、25%和19%,其平均浓度分别为19.2、8.27和4.75μg/kg,伏马毒素B1污染了9%的芝麻样品(平均浓度为12.5μg/kg)和47%的高粱样品(平均浓度为461μg/kg);同时受到黄曲霉毒素B1和伏马毒素B1污染的高粱样本至少有19%。灌木芒果、高粱和干秋葵中检测到了具致肾毒性的赭曲霉毒素A,这是首次在干秋葵中报道检测到该毒素。可见,当地市场出售的这些食物作物受到真菌毒素的污染,可能威胁消费者的健康,需要采取积极措施防控污染。

关键词：黄曲霉毒素B1 谷物坚果油籽食品安全真菌毒素公共卫生蔬菜

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distinct expression profiles of transcriptional coactivators for thyroid hormone receptors during Xenopus laevis metamorphosis

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Cell Research 2003年第6期13卷 459-464页

作者： BINdU d PAUL National Institutes of Health Laboratory of Gene Regulation and development National Institute of Child Health and Human development Bldg. USA.

The biological effects of thyroid hormone (T3) are mediated by the thyroid hormone receptor (TR). Amphibian metamorphosis is one of the most dramatic processes that are dependent on T3. T3 regulates a series of orchestrated developmental changes, which ultimately result in the conversion of an aquatic herbivorous tadpole to a terrestrial carnivorous frog. T3 is presumed to bind to TRs, which in turn recruit coactivators, leading to gene activation. The best-studied coactivators belong to the p160 or SRC family. Members of this family include SRC1/ NCoA-1, SRC2/TIF2/GRIP1, and SRC3/pCIP/ACTR/AIB-l/RAC-3/TRAM-1. These SRCs interact directly with liganded TR and function as adapter molecules to recruit other coactivators such as p300/CBP. Here, we studied the expression patterns of these coactivators during various stages of development. Amongst the coactivators cloned in Xenopus laevis, SRC3 was found to be dramatically upregulated during natural and T3-induced metamorphosis, and SRC2 and p300 are express

关键词： transcription coactivators thyroid hormone receptor Xenopus laevis metamorphosis histone acetylation.

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Studying Some Brain and Ovarian Morphological Traits in diaglena spatulata Female Frogs Thriving in Conserved and Perturbed Habitats:A Preliminary Report and Its Implications for Amphibian Survival and Continuity

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Advances in Bioscience and Biotechnology 2014年第9期5卷 740-747页

作者： Esperanza Melendez-Herrera Bryan Victor Phillips-farfan Fany Edith Bucio-Pina Noemi Ramirez-Arres Gabriel Gutierrez-Ospina Ireri Suazo-Ortuno Javier Alvarado-diaz Alma Lilia Fuentes-Farias Laboratorio de Ecofisiologia Animal Departamento de ZoologiaInstituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos NaturalesUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de HidalgoMoreliaMéxico Laboratorio de Nutricion Experimental Instituto Nacional de PediatriaSecretaria de SaludMexico Distrito FederalMexico Laboratorio de Biologia de Sistemas Departamento de Biologia Celular y FisiologiaInstituto de Investigaciones BiomedicasCoordinacion de Psicobiologia y NeurocienciasFacultad de PsicologiaUniversidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoMexico Distrito FederalMexico Laboratorio de Ecologia Departamento de ZoologiaInstituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos NaturalesUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de HidalgoMoreliaMexico Laboratorio de Herpetologia Departamento de ZoologiaInstituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos NaturalesUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de HidalgoMoreliaMexico

Amphibians are thought to be highly susceptible to perturbed environments. However, recent studies show that many of them are successful inhabitants of disturbed, fragmented habitats. The source of this resilience is yet unclear, but it may be the byproduct of having a robust phenotype and/or the result of phenotypic plasticity. We then assessed the contribution of each by evaluating cytological features of two brain nuclei that modulate reproductive behavior and of the ovary, using female specimens of the frog diaglena spatulata prospering in conserved and disturbed areas of a tropical dry forest. Our results in the brain show that the medial amygdala, but not the preoptic area, had a reduced size in frogs collected in disturbed forests compared to specimens collected in conserved forests. Both brain nuclei displayed, however, neurons with a reduced size in frogs captured in disturbed forest patches. In contrast, ovarian cytological features were similar between groups. Our preliminary results lead us to propose that diaglena spatulata female specimens might combine robust ovary and plastic brain’s phenotypic traits to confront disturbed environments. This, however, is still a working hypothetical framework that needs to be experimentally confirmed.

关键词： Amphibians Reproductive Traits Amygdala Medial Preoptic Area Ovary

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氮肥运筹对旱作覆膜玉米产量及固碳减排效应研究

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中国土壤与肥料 2019年第6期 134-141页

作者：颉健辉李玲玲谢军红彭正凯邓超超沈吉成王进斌 eunice Essel 甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室甘肃农业大学农学院

在黄土高原雨养农业区,依托布设于2012年的定位试验研究氮肥运筹对全膜双垄沟播玉米固碳效应和NH3挥发的影响。采用裂区设计,主处理施氮水平:不施氮对照(N0)、低施氮100 kg·hm^-2(N1)、中施氮200kg·hm^-2(N2)和高施氮300 kg·hm^-2(N... 详细信息

在黄土高原雨养农业区,依托布设于2012年的定位试验研究氮肥运筹对全膜双垄沟播玉米固碳效应和NH3挥发的影响。采用裂区设计,主处理施氮水平:不施氮对照(N0)、低施氮100 kg·hm^-2(N1)、中施氮200kg·hm^-2(N2)和高施氮300 kg·hm^-2(N3);副处理为施肥时期及比例:设基肥∶拔节肥=1∶2(T1)和基肥∶拔节肥∶大喇叭口肥=1∶1∶1(T2)。结果表明:将200 kg·hm^-2氮肥以基肥∶拔节肥=1∶2的比例施用能显著提高全膜双垄沟播玉米的籽粒产量和生物产量,分别较对照增加197%和131%,氮肥偏生产力和氮肥农学效率较高施氮水平分别降低48%和47%。氨挥发排放主要集中在追肥后的一周,穴施追肥后,NH3挥发速率迅速升高,1~4 d内达到峰值,随后逐渐降低至对照水平,且施氮水平越高排放峰值越大。高、中、低施氮水平的NH3挥发量较不施氮对照分别增加6.5、5.9、5.4倍;T1处理较T2处理显著降低了37%;N3T2的NH3挥发量最多,较其他处理显著增多了13%~47%。NH3挥发损失率变幅在13%~60%,随施氮水平增加而降低,高、中施氮水平较低施氮水平降低了59.6%和44.6%;与T2相比,T1处理NH3挥发损失率显著降低了40.4%,增加施氮水平和追肥次数潜在增加NH3挥发损失。综上所述,在黄土高原雨养农业区种植全膜双垄沟播玉米时,能提高玉米籽粒产量和土壤固碳减排能力的适宜施肥制度为:施纯氮200 kg·hm^-2,全部氮肥按基肥∶拔节肥=1∶2的比例施用。

关键词：全膜双垄沟播玉米氮肥运筹籽粒产量固碳减排

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