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Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics—China,2022-2023

China CDC weekly 2023年第49期5卷 1100-1106,I0003-I0005页

作者： Zhanwei Du Zengyang Shao Xiao Zhang Ruohan Chen Tianmu Chen yuan Bai Lin Wang eric h.y.lau Benjamin J.Cowling WhO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLKS Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina Laboratory of Data Discovery for health Limited Hong Kong Science and Technology ParkHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics School of Public HealthXiamen UniversityXiamen CityFujian ProvinceChina Department of Genetics University of CambridgeCambridgeUK Institute for health Transformation&School of health&Social Development Deakin UniversityMelbourneAustralia

Background:Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023,causing a large number of *** influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/***:Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness(ILI)data for northern and southern regions of China,we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 *** this trained model,we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September ***:We estimated the effective reproduction number Re as 1.08[95%confidence interval(CI):0.51,1.65]in northern China and 1.10(95%CI:0.55,1.67)in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza *** estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51%(95%CI:0.00%,37.78%)in northern China and 28.30%(95%CI:14.77%,41.82%)in southern ***:The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.

关键词： winter relaxation measures

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The economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations in China: a retrospective survey

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2015年第1期4卷 371-381页

作者： Juan yang Mark Jit Kathy S.Leung ya-ming Zheng Lu-zhao Feng Li-ping Wang eric h.y.lau Joseph T.Wu hong-jie yu Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease Division of Infectious DiseaseChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention155 Changbai RoadChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China Modelling and Economics Unit of Public health in England LondonUK Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK WhO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong Kong2/F North WingPatrick Manson Building7 Sassoon RoadPok Fu LamHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina

Background:The seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rate in China is only 1.9%.There is no information available on the economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations at the national level,even though this kind of information is important for informing national-level immunization policy ***:A retrospective telephone survey was conducted in 2013/14 to estimate the direct and indirect costs of seasonal influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations from a societal *** participants were laboratory-confirmed cases registered in the National Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network and Severe Acute Respiratory Infections Sentinel Surveillance Network in China in ***-reported costs from the survey were validated by a review of hospital accounts for a small sample of the ***:The study enrolled 529 outpatients(median age:eight years;interquartile range[IQR]:five to 20 years)and 254 inpatients(median age:four years;IQR:two to seven years).Among the outpatients,22.1%(117/529)had underlying diseases and among the inpatients,52.8%(134/254)had underlying *** average total costs related to influenza-associated outpatient visits and inpatient visits were US$155(standard deviation,SD US$122)and US$1,511(SD US$1,465),*** medical costs accounted for 45 and 69%of the total costs related to influenza-associated outpatient and inpatient visits,*** influenza outpatients,the mean cost per episode in children aged below five years(US$196)was higher than that in other age groups(US$129–153).For influenza inpatients,the mean cost per episode in adults aged over 60 years(US$2,735)was much higher than that in those aged below 60 years(US$1,417–1,621).Patients with underlying medical conditions had higher costs per episode than patients without underlying medical conditions(outpatients:US$186 ***$146;inpatients:US$1,800 ***$1,189).In the baseline ana

关键词： Influenza Cost analysis China

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China CDC weekly 2022年第40期4卷 885-889,I0002-I0005页

作者： yuan Bai Mingda Xu Caifen Liu Mingwang Shen Lin Wang Linwei Tian Suoyi Tan Lei Zhang Petter holme Xin Lu eric h.y.lau Benjamin J.Cowling Zhanwei Du WhO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control School of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina Laboratory of Data Discovery for health Limited(D24h) Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public HealthXi’an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi’an CityShaanxi ProvinceChina Department of Genetics University of CambridgeCambridge CB23EHUK College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha CityHunan ProvinceChina Department of Computer Science Aalto UniversityEspooFinland Center for Computational Social Science Kobe UniversityKobeJapan

Introduction:Minimizing the importation and exportation risks of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a primary concern for sustaining the“Dynamic COVID-zero”strategy in *** estimation is essential for cities to conduct before relaxing border control ***:Informed by the daily number of passengers traveling between 367 prefectures(cities)in China,this study used a stochastic metapopulation model parameterized with COVID-19 epidemic characteristics to estimate the importation and exportation ***:Under the transmission scenario(R0=5.49),this study estimated the cumulative case incidence of Changchun City,Jilin Province as 3,233(95%confidence interval:1,480,4,986)before a lockdown on March 14,2022,which is close to the 3,168 cases reported in real life by March 16,*** a total of 367 prefectures(cities),127(35%)had high exportation risks according to the simulation and could transmit the disease to 50%of all other regions within a period from 17 to 94 *** average time until a new infection arrives in a location in 1 of the 367 prefectures(cities)ranged from 26 to 101 ***:Estimating COVID-19 importation and exportation risks is necessary for preparedness,prevention,and control measures of COVID-19—especially when new variants emerge.

关键词： Export Changchun prevention

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Methods of vascular control technique during liver resection:a comprehensive review

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2010年第5期9卷 473-481页

作者： Wan-yee lau eric C.h.Lai Stephanie h.y.lau Faculty of Medicine the Chinese University of Hong KongShatinNew TerritoriesHong Kong SARChina

BACKGROUND: Significant hemorrhage together with blood transfusion increases postoperative morbidity and mortality of hepatic resection. hepatic vascular occlusion is effective in minimizing bleeding during hepatic parenchymal transection. This article aimed to review the current role and status of various techniques of hepatic vascular occlusion during hepatic resection. DATA SOURCES: The relevant manuscripts were identified by searching MEDLINE, and PubMed for articles published between January 1980 and April 2010 using the keywords 'vascular control', 'vascular clamping', 'vascular exclusion' and 'hepatectomy'. Additional papers were identified by a manual search of the references from the key articles. RESULTS: One randomized controlled trial (RCT) and 5 RCTs showed intermittent Pringle maneuver and ischemic preconditioning followed by continuous Pringle maneuver were superior to continuous Pringle maneuver alone, respectively. Two RCTs compared the outcomes of hepatectomy with and without intermittent Pringle maneuver. One showed Pringle maneuver to be beneficial, while the other failed to show any benefit. One RCT showed that ischemic preconditioning had significantly less blood loss than using intermittent Pringle maneuver. Four RCTs evaluated the use of hemihepatic vascular occlusion. One RCT showed it had significantly less blood loss than Pringle maneuver, while the other 3 showed no significant difference. Only 1 RCT showed it had significantly less liver ischemic injury. No RCT had been carried out to assess segmental vascular occlusion. Two RCTs compared the outcomes of total hepatic vascular exclusion (ThVE) and Pringle maneuver. One RCT showed ThVE resulted in similar blood loss, but a higher postoperative complication. The other RCT showed less blood loss using ThVE but the postoperative complication rate was similar. Both studies showed similar degree of liver ischemic injury. Only one RCT showed that selective hepatic vascular exclusion (ShVE) had

关键词： vascular control vascular exclusion hepatectomy liver neoplasm Pringle maneuver

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The current role of neoadjuvant/adjuvant/chemoprevention therapy in partial hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma:a systematic review

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2009年第2期8卷 124-133页

作者： Wan-yee lau eric C.h.Lai Stephanie h.y.lau State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases First Affiliated HospitalZhejiang University School of Medicine

BACKGROUND: Following curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (hCC), 50%-90% of postoperative death is due to recurrent disease. Intra-hepatic recurrence is frequently the only site of recurrence. Thus, any neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy, which can decrease or delay the incidence of intra-hepatic recurrence, or any cancer chemoprevention which can prevent a new hCC from developing in the liver remnant, will improve the results of liver resection. This article systematically reviewed the current evidence of neoadjuvant, adjuvant, and chemoprevention in partial hepatectomy of hCC. DATA SOURCES: Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE and PubMed databases for articles from January 1990 to November 2008 using the keywords 'hepatocellular carcinoma', 'hepatectomy', 'adjuvant therapy', 'neoadjuvant therapy', and 'regional therapy'. Additional papers and book chapters were identified by a manual search of the references from the key articles. RESULTS: Neoadjuvant transarterial chemoembolization or adjuvant regional transarterial chemotherapy embolization+systemic chemotherapy did not add benefit. Both adjuvant transarterial radioembolization with (131)I-lipiodol and adjuvant systemic interferon showed promising results. however, there were only a limited number of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: Further randomized controlled studies need to be carried out. Currently, there is no consensus on a standard neoadjuvant/adjuvant/chemoprevention therapy in partial hepatectomy for hCC.

关键词： hepatocellular carcinoma hepatectomy adjuvant therapy neoadjuvant therapy therapeutic embolization

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A ruptured recurrent small bowel gastrointestinal stromal tumour causing hemoperitoneum

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Frontiers of Medicine 2015年第1期9卷 108-111页

作者： eric C.h. Lai Kam Man Chung Stephanie h.y. lau Wan yee lau Faculty of Medicine The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shatin Hong Kong SAR China Dr. K.M. Chung's Clinic Rm 807 Hang Seng Tsimshatsui Building 18 Carnarvon Road Tsimshatsui Hong Kong SAR China Department of Surgery Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital Hong Kong SAR China Department of Surgery Queen Elizabeth Hospital Hong Kong SAR China

hemoperitoneum is a rare and potentially life-threatening complication of GIST. We reported a 54- year-old man who developed disseminated intra-abdominal recurrence from a previously resected gastrointestinal stromal tumour （GIST） of the small bowel, and the patient presented with hemoperitoneum. Emergent debulking surgery was performed. A high dose imatinib was prescribed. Despite the presence of residual disease, the patient was well clinically 8 months after the operation. Even though, there is no evidence to support the routine use of debulking surgery in the management of GIST. In our patient, disease progression after second line targeted therapy and the absence of alternative treatment options for spontaneous rupture and hemoperitoneum prompted us to treat the patient aggressively. Resection of the ruptured GIST was carried out for control of bleeding and to prevent recurrent bleeding in this patient with good surgical risks. During the treatment decision-making, the patient＇s general condition, the risk of surgery and the extent of dissemination were taken into consideration. In this patient who presented with spontaneous rupture of a small intestinal GIST, the novel use of targeted therapy and aggressive surgical treatment produced reasonably good survival outcome.

关键词： gastrointestinal stromal tumour hemoperitoneum small bowel GIST small bowel neoplasm imatinib

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Development and controversies of adjuvant therapy for pancreatic cancer

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2008年第2期7卷 121-125页

作者： Wan-yee lau eric C.h.Lai Faculty of Medicine the Chinese University of Hong Kong Prince of Wales Hospital Shatin New TerritoriesHong Kong SAR China

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is an aggressive malignancy with a dismal prognosis. Radical surgery provides the only chance for a cure with a 5-year survival rate of 7%-25%. An effective adjuvant therapy is urgently needed to improve the surgical outcome. This review describes the current status of adjuvant therapy for pancreatic cancer, and highlights its controversies. DATA SOURCES: A Medline database search was performed to identify relevant articles using the keywords 'pancreatic neoplasm', and 'adjuvant therapy'. Additional papers were identified by a manual search of the references from the key articles. RESULTS: Eight prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the use of adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation for pancreatic cancer could be identified. The results for adjuvant regimens based on systemic 5-fluorouracil with or without external radiotherapy were conflicting. The recent two RCTs on gemcitabine based regimen gave promising results. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available data, no standard adjuvant therapy for pancreatic cancer can be established yet. The best adjuvant regimen remains to be determined in large-scale RCTs. Future trials should use a gemcitabine based regimen.

关键词： pancreatic neoplasm pancreatectomy adjuvant therapy radiotherapy chemotherapy

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Classification of iatrogenic bile duct injury

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2007年第5期6卷 459-463页

作者： Wan-yee lau eric C.h.Lai Department of Surgery the Chinese University of Hong KongShatinNew TerritoriesHong Kong SARChina

BACKGROUND: Iatrogenic bile duct injury continues to be an important clinical problem, resulting in serious morbidity, and occasional mortality, to patients. The ease of management, operative risk, and outcome of bile duct injuries vary considerably, and are highly dependent on the type of injury and its location. This article reviews the various classification systems of bile duct injury. DATA SOURCES: A Medline, PubMed database search was performed to identify relevant articles using the keywords 'bile duct injury', 'cholecystectomy', and 'classification'. Additional papers were identified by a manual search of the references from the key articles. RESULTS: Traditionally, biliary injuries have been classified using the Bismuth's classification. This classification, which originated from the era of open surgery, is intended to help the surgeons to choose the appropriate technique for the repair, and it has a good correlation with the final outcome after surgical repair. however, the Bismuth's classification does not encompass the whole spectrum of injuries that are possible. Bile duct injury during laparoscopic cholecystectomy tends to be more severe than those with open cholecystectomy. Strasberg's classification made Bismuth's classification much more comprehensive by including various other types of extrahepatic bile duct injuries. Our group, Bergman et al, Neuhaus et al, Csendes et al, and Stewart et al have also proposed other classification systems to complement the Bismuth's classification. CONCLUSIONS: None of the classification system is universally accepted as each has its own limitation. hopefully, a universally accepted comprehensive classification system will be published in the near future.

关键词： laparoscopic cholecystectomy bile duct injury bile duct stricture bile leak classification

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hepatocellular carcinoma: current management and recent advances

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2008年第3期7卷 237-257页

作者： Wan-yee lau eric C. h. Lai Faculty of Medicine The Chinese University of Hong Kong Prince of Wales Hospital Shatin New Territories Hong Kong SAR China

BACKGROUND: hepatocellular carcinoma (hCC) is a major health problem worldwide. It is the fifth most common cancer in the world, and the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Without specific treatment, the prognosis is very poor. The goal of management is 'cancer control'-a reduction in its incidence and mortality as well as an improvement in the quality of life of patients with hCC and their families. This article aims to review the current management of hCC and its recent advances. DATA SOURCES: A MEDLINE database search was performed to identify relevant article using the keywords 'hepatocellular carcinoma', 'hepatectomy', 'liver transplantation', and 'local ablative therapy'. Additional papers and book chapters were identified by a manual search of the references from the key articles. RESULTS: Liver resection and liver transplantation remain the options that give the best chance of a cure. Recent evidence suggests that local ablative therapy may offer comparable survival results in patients with small hCC, and preserved liver function. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the most promising palliative modality for unresectable hCC, but other techniques, such as transarterial radioembolization (TARE), and local ablative therapy, have also shown comparable results. CONCLUSIONS: Early diagnosis of hCC remains a key goal in improving the prognosis of patients. During the last two decades, operative mortality and surgical outcome of liver resection and liver transplantation for hCC have improved. Progress also has been made in multi-modality therapy which can increase the chance of survival and improve the quality of life for patients with advanced hCC.

关键词： hepatocellular carcinoma hepatectomy liver transplantation local ablative therapy

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Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy： the current role and development

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hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International 2017年第1期16卷 17-26页

作者： Wan yee lau eric Ch Lai Stephanie hy lau Faculty of Medicine The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shatin New Territories Department of Surgery Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital Department of Surgery Queen Elizabeth Hospital Hong Kong China

BACKGROUND： Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy （ALPPS） has recently been developed to induce rapid liver hypertrophy and reduce posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with insufficient future liver remnant （FLR）. ALPPS is still considered to be in an early developmental phase because surgical indications and techniques have not been standardized. This article aimed to review the current role and future developments of ALPPS. DATA SOURCES： Studies were identified by searching MED- LINE and PubMed for articles from January 2007 to October 2016 using the keywords ＂associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy＂ and ＂ALPPS＂ Addi- tional papers were identified by a manual search of references from key articles. RESULTS： ALPPS induces more hypertrophy of the FLR in less time than portal vein embolization or portal vein ligation. The benefits of ALPPS include rapid hypertrophy 47%-110% of the liver over a median of 6-16.4 days, and 95%-100% com- pletion rate of the second stage of ALPPS. The main criticisms of ALPPS are centered on its high morbidity and mortality rates. Morbidity rates after ALPPS have been reported to be 15.3%-100%, with ≥ the Clavien-Dindo grade III morbidity of 13.6%-44%. Mortality rates have been reported to be 0%-29%. The important questions to ask even if oncologic long-term results are acceptable are： whether the gain in quality and quantity of life can be off balance by the substantial risks of morbidity and mortality, and whether stimulation of rapid liver hypertrophy also accelerates rapid tumor progression and spread. Up till now, the documentations of the ALPPS procedure come mainly from case series, and most of these series include heterogeneous groups of malignancies. The numbers are also too small to separately evaluate survival for different tumor etiologies. CONCLUSIONS： Currently, knowledge on ALPPS is limited, and prospective randomized studies are lacking. From th

关键词： associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy portal vein embolization laparoscopy colorectal liver metastases hepatocellular carcinoma

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