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Validation of prognostic indices in Egyptian Budd-Chiari syndrome patients: A single-center study

World Journal of Gastroenterology 2017年第4期23卷 629-637页

作者： Mohammad Sakr Sara M Abdelhakam Soheir A Elsayed enas h allam Amir M Farid Waleed Abdelmoaty Azza M hassan Mohamed Shaker Mohamed El-Gharib Ahmed Eldorry Department of Tropical Medicine Faculty of MedicineAin Shams University Department of Community Environmental and Occupational MedicineFaculty of MedicineAin Shams University Department of Radiodiagnosis and Interventional Radiology Faculty of MedicineAin Shams University

AIMTo compare predictive ability of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) prognostic indices (PIs) for one-year survival and Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) *** retrospective study enrolled 194 Egyptian patients with primary BCS who presented to the Budd-Chiari Study Group of Ain Shams University hospital. Calculation of the available PIs was performed using Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores, BCS-specific PIs (Clichy, New Clichy and Rotterdam) for all patients, and BCS-TIPS PI only for patients who underwent TIPS. The overall one-year survival rate and the one-year shunt patency rate for TIPS were *** overall one-year survival rate was 69.6%, and the New Clichy PI revealed the best validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 78% and 73.3%, respectively [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.806]. The one-year survival rate post-TIPS was 89.7%, and the BCS-TIPS score demonstrated validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.92 (sensitivity and specificity were 71.4% and 64.5%, respectively) (AUC = 0.715). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the New Clichy PI (P = 0.030), high serum total bilirubin (P = 0.047) and low albumin (P hin one year. The one-year shunt patency rate in TIPS was 80.2%, and none of the PIs exhibited significant validity for its *** New Clichy score could independently predict the one-year survival in Egyptian BCS patients.

关键词： Budd-Chiari syndrome Prognostic indices New Clichy score One-year survival Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

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