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A multi-scale modelling framework to guide management of plant invasions in a transboundary context

Forest Ecosystems 2016年第4期3卷 297-310页

作者： Joao Martins David M.Richardson Renato Henriques elizabete marchante Hélia marchante Paulo Alves Mirijam Gaertner Joao P.Honrado Joana R.Vicente InBIO/CIBIO-Centro de Investigacao em Biodiversidade e Recursos Geneticos Universidade do Porto-Campus Agrario de VairaoRua Padre Armando Quintasn°74485-661 VairaoPortugal Centre for Invasion Biology Department of Botany and ZoologyStellenbosch UniversityMatieland 7602South Africa Institute of Earth Sciences(ICT/University of Minho/CCT) MinhoPortugal Centre for Functional Ecology Department of Life SciencesUniversity of Coimbra3000-456 CoimbraPortugal Departamento de Ambiente Escola Superior Agraria de CoimbraInstituto Politecnico de CoimbraBencanta3045-601 CoimbraPortugal Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto Ediffcio FC4(Biologia)Rua do Campo Alegres/n4169-007 PortoPortugal Environmental Resource Management Department Westlake Conservation OfficeOu Kaapse WegTokai7966 City of Cape TownSouth Africa

Background：Attention has recently been drawn to the issue of transboundary invasions,where species introduced and naturalized in one country cross international borders and become problematic in neighbouring *** modelling frameworks,able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future potential distribution of invasive species,are needed to study and manage *** due to the lack of species distribution and environmental data,or assumptions of modelling tools,often constrain the reliability of model ***：We present a multiscale spatial modelling framework for transboundary invasions,incorporating robust modelling frameworks（Multimodel Inference and Ensemble Modelling） to overcome some of the *** framework is illustrated using Hakea sericea Schrad.（Proteaceae）,a shrub or small tree native to Australia and invasive in several regions of the world,including the Iberian *** study scales were considered：regional scale（western Iberia,including mainland Portugal and Galicia） and local scale（northwest Portugal）.At the regional scale,the relative importance of environmental predictors sets was evaluated and ranked to determine the main general drivers for the species distribution,while the importance of each environmental predictor was assessed at the local *** potential distribution of *** was spatially projected for both scale ***：Model projections for western Iberia suggest that a large area is environmentally suitable in both Portugal and *** and landscape composition sets were the most important determinants of this regional distribution of the ***,a geological predictor（schist lithology） was more important in explaining its local-scale ***：After being introduced to Portugal,*** has become a transboundary invader by expanding in parts of Galicia（Spain）.The fact that a larger area is predicted as

关键词： Drivers of invasion Hakea sericea Multimodel inference Transboundary invasion management Species distribution models

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