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Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 634-643页

作者： Joshua Ladau Eoin L.brodie Nicola Falco Ishan bansal elijah b.hoffman Marcin P.Joachimiak Ana M.Mora Angelica M.Walker Haruko M.Wainwright Yulun Wu Mirko Pavicic Daniel Jacobson Matthias Hess James b.brown Katrina Abuabara Departments of Computational Precision Health and Dermatology University of CaliforniaSan FranciscoCA94115USA Arva Intelligence Inc.Salt Lake CityUT84101USA Computational biosciences Group Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Earth and Environmental Sciences Area Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Graduate Group in biostatistics University of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA biosystems Data Science Environmental Genomics and Systems BiologyLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCA94720USA Center for Environmental Research and Community Health(CERCH) School of Public HealthUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education University of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN37996USA Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBostonMA02139USA biosciences Oak Ridge National LaboratoryOak RidgeTN37830USA University of California DavisCA95616USA Statistics Department University of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Division of Epidemiology and biostatistics University of California Berkeley School of Public Health2121 Berkeley WayBerkeleyCA94720USA

Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios(IFR;the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people)when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an *** We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek *** demonstrate the robustness,accuracy,and precision of this framework,and apply it to the United States(U.S.)COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 *** The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision;for instance,when applied to simulated validation data sets,across counties,Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928,respectively,and they showed strong robustness to model *** the county-level estimators to the real,unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1,2020 to September 30,2020 from across the U.S.,we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69,with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of *** The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

关键词： Infection fatality ratio Infection fatality rate Noncentral hypergeometric distribution COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2

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Site directed mutagenesis as a precision tool to enable synthetic biology with engineered modular polyketide synthases

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Synthetic and Systems biotechnology 2020年第2期5卷 62-80页

作者： Erin E.Drufva elijah G.Hix Constance b.bailey Department of Chemistry University of Tennessee-KnoxvilleKnoxvilleTN37996USA

Modular polyketide synthases(PKSs)are a multidomain megasynthase class of biosynthetic enzymes that have great promise for the development of new compounds,from new pharmaceuticals to high value commodity and specialty *** colinear biosynthetic logic has been viewed as a promising platform for synthetic biology for *** to this colinearity,domain swapping has long been used as a strategy to introduce molecular ***,domain swapping often fails because it perturbs critical protein-protein interactions within the *** our increased level of structural elucidation of PKSs,using judicious targeted mutations of individual residues is a more precise way to introduce molecular diversity with less potential for global disruption of the protein *** we review examples of targeted point mutagenesis to one or a few residues harbored within the PKS that alter domain specificity or selectivity,affect protein stability and interdomain communication,and promote more complex catalytic reactivity.

关键词： Polyketide synthase Site directed mutagenesis Rational design Saturation mutagenesis Synthetic biology Protein engineering

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Optimization of process conditions for drying of catfish(Clarias gariepinus)using Response Surface Methodology(RSM)

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Food Science and Human Wellness 2019年第1期8卷 46-52页

作者： elijah George Ikrang Kingsley Charles Umani Department of Agricultural and Food Engineering Faculty of EngineeringUniversity of UyoUyoAkwa Ibom StateNigeria Department of Agricultural Engineering Faculty of EngineeringAkwa Ibom State UniversityMkpat EninAkwa Ibom StateNigeria

Drying is applied to lower the moisture content of fish to a level that can prevent the growth of mould and infestation of micro-organism and thus minimizes microbial *** goal of this work was to optimize the process conditions during electrical oven drying of *** content(MC)was quantitatively investigated during the drying process of catfish sizes using response surface methodology(RSM)to obtain minimum moisture *** independent process variables for the drying process were temperature(50–70◦C),product thickness(10–20 mm),salt concentration(0–20%)and drying time(480–600 min.).Two factorial interaction(2FI)regression model describing the effects of independent drying process variables on the moisture content was *** effects of temperature and drying time were more pronounced for MC than the thickness and salt *** optimum conditions were found to be temperature=63.43◦C,product thickness=14.81 mm,salt concentration=9.07%and drying time=600 *** these optimum conditions,moisture content was found to be 2.64%*** of experimental results with the empirical model was evaluated using coefficient of correlation(R2)which was found for the model equation as,R2=0.994.

关键词： Optimization Oven drying Drying parameters Catfish Response surface methodology

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Fish from a polluted lake(Lake Chivero,Zimbabwe):a food safety issue of concern

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Food Quality and Safety 2019年第3期3卷 157-167页

作者： Francis Manjengwa Tamuka Nhiwatiwa elijah Nyakudya Petronella banda Faculty of Science Biosciences DepartmentUniversity of ZimbabwePO Box MP167Mt.PleasantHarareZimbabwe Faculty of Agriculture Soil Sciences&Agricultural Engineering DepartmentUniversity of ZimbabwePO Box MP167Mt.PleasantHarareZimbabwe Faculty of Agriculture Animal Sciences DepartmentUniversity of ZimbabwePO Box MP167Mt.PleasantHarareZimbabwe

Objectives:A study to determine food safety hazard status of fish products from Lake Chivero was conducted in selected high density suburbs of *** water and fish were tested for *** O157:H7,total bacterial,fungal counts,mercury(Hg)and aflatoxin b1(AFb1)to determine contamination levels and assessing human health hazard *** and Methods:Membrane filtration method was used to determine *** O157:H7 viable counts using CHROM *** count and Potato dextrose agar were used for determination of total viable bacterial and fungal *** of Hg and AFb1 in fish and water were determined by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer and High Performance Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry.A questionnaire survey was conducted on 136 adult fish consumers to determine the fish consumption patterns to assess hazard exposure against international ***:Significant levels of microbial contamination above international standards in both fish and water were *** *** O157:H7 counts were 106±10(cfu/cm^(2))in fish and 52±14(cfu/100ml)in *** Log10 TbC were 8.98±0.26(cfu/cm^(2))in fish and 9.05±0.05(cfu/ml)in *** Log10 TFC were 4.83±0.02(cfu/cm^(2))in fish and 4.56±0.03(cfu/ml)in *** and AFb1 were 0.018(μg/kg)and 0.025(μg/kg)in fish and 0.008(μg/kg)and 0.005(μg/kg)in water,both with a hazard quotient(HQ)bacterial and fungal loads above international food safety guidance *** were caught already contaminated with pathogens together with toxigenic Hg and carcinogenic AFb1 although their concentration levels are within international food safety toxicological *** of Hg and AFb1 in water were almost double that of fish,implying bio-accumulation occurred in ***,fish consumers are exposed to food safety hazards and are at risk of contracting foodborne illnesses from consuming contam

关键词： food contamination food safety hazards,E.coli O157:H7,mercury,aflatoxin b1

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Growth performance,gastrointestinal weight,microbial metabolites and apparent retention of components in broiler chickens fed up to 11%rice bran in a corn-soybean meal diet without or with a multi-enzyme supplement

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Animal Nutrition 2019年第1期5卷 41-48页

作者： Juan Sanchez Aizwarya Thanabalan Tanka Khanal Rob Patterson bogdan A.Slominski elijah Kiarie Department of Animal biosciences University of Guelph Canadian bio-Systems Inc. Department of Animal Science University of Manitoba

We investigated the effects of adding up to 11% rice bran(Rb) in corn-soybean meal diets fed to broiler chickens without or with a multi-enzyme supplement(MES). The MES supplied xylanase, b-glucanase invertase, protease, cellulase, a-amylase and mannanase with targeted activity of 2,500, 300, 700, 10,0001,200, 24,000, and 20 U/kg of feed, respectively. The study used a two-phase feeding program(starter d 0 to 24; finisher, d 25 to 35) with Rb added at 5% and 11%, respectively creating 4 diets in each phase Diets were iso-caloric and iso-nitrogenous and contained phytase(500 FTU/kg) and TiO_2 as a digestibility marker. Three hundred and sixty d-old male Ross 708 broiler chicks were placed in cages based on bW(15 birds/cage) and allocated to 4 diets(n = 6). birds had free access to feed and water. body weight and feed intake were recorded. Excreta samples were collected 3 d prior to the end of each phase for apparent retention(AR) of components. Samples of birds were sacrificed on d 24 and 35 for gut weight and ceca digesta for organic acid content. There was no interaction(P > 0.10) between Rb and MES on bWG and FCR in starter or finisher phase. In finisher phase, birds fed MES had better bWG(961 versus 858 g) and FCR(1.69 versus 1.86) than birds fed non-MES diets(P b reduced(P = 0.02) bWG in finisher phase resulting in lower d 35 bW. birds fed Rb had higher(P 0.01) gizzard weight on d 24 and 35 than non-Rb birds. An interaction(P 0.01) between Rb and MES on concentrations of propionic and iso-butyric acids in ceca digesta showed that MES reduced these acids in non-Rb diet. The AR of gross energy was higher(P birds in starter and finisher phases. In conclusion independently, Rb increased gizzard weight and reduced final bW whereas MES improved growth and energy utilization.

关键词： broiler chickens Growth performance Gut weight Microbial activity Multi-enzyme supplement Rice bran

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Evaluation of optimization techniques in predicting optimum moisture content reduction in drying potato slices

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Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture 2020年第1期4卷 39-47页

作者： Onu Chijioke elijah K.Igbokwe Philomena T.Nwabanne Joseph O.Nwajinka Charles E.Ohale Paschal Department of Chemical Engineering Nnamdi Azikiwe UniveristyP.M.B.5025 AwkaNigeria Department of Agric and bioresource Engineering Nnamdi Azikiwe UniveristyP.M.B.5025 AwkaNigeria

The use of artificial intelligence models in predicting the moisture content reduction in the drying of potato(Ipomoea batata)sliceswas the focus of *** models used were adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems(ANFIS),artificial neural network(ANN)and response surface methodology(RSM).The parameters considered were drying time,drying air speed and *** capability and sensitivity analysis of the three models were evaluated using the correlation coefficient(R2)and some statistical error functions such as the average relative error(ARE),root mean square error(RMSE),Hybrid Fractional Error Function(HYbRID)and absolute average relative error(AARE).The result showed that the three models demonstrated significant predictive behaviourwith R2 of 0.998,0.997 and 0.998 for ANFIS,ANN and *** calculated error functions of ARE(RSM=1.778,ANFIS=1.665 and ANN=4.282)and RMSE(RSM=0.0273,ANFIS=0.0282 and ANN=0.1178)suggested good harmony between the experimental and predicted *** was concluded that though the three models gave adequate predictions that were in good agreement with the experimental data,the RSM and ANFIS gave better model prediction than ANN.

关键词： Moisture content Potato Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems Artificial neural network Response surface methodology

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Assessing the spillover effects of *** policy normalization on Nigeria sovereign bond yield

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Financial Innovation 2019年第1期5卷 566-581页

作者： Kpughur Moses Tule Osana Jackson Odonye Udoma Johnson Afangideh Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh elijah Abasifreke Paul Udoh Augustine Ujunwa Monetary Policy Department Central Bank of NigeriaNo 33 Tafawa Balewa WayCentral Business DistrictP.M.B.0187GarkiAbujaNigeria International Monetary Fund Washington DCUSA

This study examines the spillover effects of *** policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model *** results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond ***,the spillover effect from the *** policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy *** counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.

关键词： Tapering Nigeria 10-year sovereign bond yield Error correction model Counterfactual analysis

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Comparison of Transvaginal Ultrasound, Saline Infusion Sonohysterography versus Diagnostic Hysteroscopy in Evaluation of Endometrial Cavity Pathology amongst Women with Abnormal Uterine bleeding in Low Resource Setting

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Open Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2020年第5期10卷 644-656页

作者： Jayni Dedhia Gichuhi J.Wanyoike Ojwang b.Shadrack Madadi M.Obimbo Rafique b.Parkar elijah Kwasa Department of Obstetrics&Gynaecology University of NairobiNairobiKenya Department of Anatomy University of NairobiNairobiKenya Consultant Obstetrician&Gynecologist NairobiKenya Consultant Radiologist NairobiKenya

Introduction: Hysteroscopy is currently the gold-standard protocol for evaluating patients with abnormal uterine bleeding (AUb). Unfortunately, though accurate, its adoption in low-resource countries such as in Africa is limited due to lack of equipment and qualified personnel. As such, there is a need for an alternative diagnostic procedure that is as accurate as hysteroscopy, but also affordable, easy to administer, and acceptable by women with endometrial pathologies. Transvaginal Sonography (TVS) and Saline Infusion Sonohysterography (SIS) are proposed. However, their diagnostic accuracy versus hysteroscopy has not been determined in low resource setting. Objective: To compare the diagnostic efficacy of TVS and SIS versus diagnostic hysteroscopy in evaluation of endometrial pathology among pre-menopausal and post-menopausal women and to determine the etiology of AUb amongst these women. Methodology: A prospective cohort study was done at a hospital in Nairobi, Kenya between May and September 2019. Forty patients with AUb were recruited using consecutive sampling, and women who consented were recruited. The etiology of AUb was recorded. All participants underwent TVS, SIS and Diagnostic Hysteroscopy (DH) evaluation in the first half of the menstrual cycle and the findings recorded on a patient’s information sheet. The sociodemographic and bleeding characteristics of patients and the outcomes of TVS, SIS, and DH evaluations were also recorded and the data was analysed using version 5 of the Software for Statistics and Data Science (STATA). Summary statistics on the etiology of AUb were presented and the sensitivity of TVS and SIS versus DH as the gold-standard evaluated using two by two tables and the ROC curve. Results: The mean age of participants was 38.1 ± 8.8 years, range of 25 - 71 years. Heavy Menstrual bleeding (HMb) was reported in 70.0% of participants, while about 12.0%, 7.5%, and 7.5% had post-menopausal bleeding, amenorrhea, and hypomenorrhea. The inc

关键词： Abnormal Uterine bleeding Transvaginal Sonography Saline Infusion Sonohysterography Hysteroscopy

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Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator in Zambia: A Case of Mount Makulu Agriculture Research Station

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American Journal of Climate Change 2017年第3期6卷 487-512页

作者： Charles bwalya Chisanga elijah Phiri Vernon R. N. Chinene Ministry of Agriculture Ndola Zambia Department of Soil Science School of Agricultural Sciences University of Zambia Lusaka Zambia

The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) is a stochastic weather generator used for the simulation of weather data at a single site under both current and future climate conditions using General Circulation Models (GCM). It was calibrated using the baseline (1981-2010) and evaluated to determine its suitability in generating synthetic weather data for 2020 and 2055 according to the projections of HadCM3 and bCCR-bCM2 GCMs under SRb1 and SRA1b scenarios at Mount Makulu (Latitude: 15.550°S, Longitude: 28.250°E, Elevation: 1213 meter), Zambia. Three weather parameters—precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature were simulated using LARS-WG v5.5 for observed station and AgMERRA reanalysis data for Mount Makulu. Monthly means and variances of observed and generated daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were used to evaluate the suitability of LARS-WG. Other climatic conditions such as wet and dry spells, seasonal frost and heat spells distributions were also used to assess the performance of the model. The results showed that these variables were modeled with good accuracy and LARS-WG could be used with high confidence to reproduce the current and future climate scenarios. Mount Makulu did not experience any seasonal frost. The average temperatures for the baseline (Observed station data: 1981-2010 and AgMERRA reanalysis: 1981-2010) were 21.33°C and 22.21°C, respectively. Using the observed station data, the average temperature under SRb1 (2020), SRA1b (2020), SRb1 (2055), SRA1b (2055) would be 21.90°C, 21.94°C, 22.83°C and 23.18°C, respectively. Under the AgMERRA reanalysis, the average temperatures would be 22.75°C (SRb1: 2020), 22.80°C (SRA1b: 2020), 23.69°C (SRb1: 2055) and 24.05°C (SRA1b: 2055). The HadCM3 and bCM2 GCMs ensemble mean showed that the number of days with precipitation would increase while the mean precipitation amount in 2020s and 2050s under SRA1b would reduce by 6.19% to 6.65%. Precipitation would in

关键词： LARS-WG Statistical Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios HadCM3 bCCR-bCM2 GCMs

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biodegradation and Sugar Release from Canola Plant biomass by Selected White Rot Fungi

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Advances in biological Chemistry 2014年第6期4卷 395-406页

作者： Omoanghe S. Isikhuemhen Nona A. Mikiashvili Zachary N. Senwo elijah I. Ohimain Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Design North Carolina A&T State University Greensboro USA Department of biological & Environmental Sciences Alabama Agricultural & Mechanical University Normal USA Niger Delta University Wilberforce Island Nigeria

Canola crop is rich in plant biomass. It is considered a major cash crop in North America and a potential source for biofuel. We evaluated six strains of white rot basidiomycetes under solid state fermentation (SSF) for their potentials to secrete oxidative and hydrolytic enzymes to biodegrade canola plant biomass (CPb), and release sugars. Fuscoporia gilva and Pleurotus tuberregium produced high amount of laccase (440.86 U/L and 480.63 U/L at day 7), as well as carboxylmethylcellulase (CMCase) (4.78 U/mL at day 21 and 3.13 U/mL at day 14) and xylanase (4.48 U/mL and 7.8 U/mL at day 21), respectively. bjerkandera adusta showed high amount of MnP (50.4 U/L) and peroxidase (64.5 U/L), relative to the other strains. Loss of organic matter peaked after 21 days of incubation in all the tested strains;however, the best result (34.0%) was shown in P. tuberregium. The highest lignin loss was observed in Coriolopsis caperata strains. Among the sugar polymers, hemicellulose was highly degraded by P. tuberregium and P. pulmonarius (4.1% - 4.6%), while cellulose (3.3% - 4.3%) was mainly degraded by F. gilva and b. adusta. Glucose was the dominant sugar released by all the fungi tested, with the highest concentration of 1.25 mg/mL produced by b. adusta at day 14 of incubation. Results indicate that selected white rot fungi can achieve significant delignification of CPb within 14 days of solid state fermentation. Their importance in low cost pretreatment of lignocellulosic biomass prior to conversion into biofuels and bio-products of economic importance is discussed.

关键词： Canola Plant biomass bio-Delignification White Rot Fungi Lignocellulose

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