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Evolving Decision Rules to predict Investment Opportunities

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International Journal of Automation and computing 2008年第1期5卷 22-31页

作者： Alma Lilia Garcia-Almanza edward p.k.tsang Department of Computer Science University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester CO4 3SQUK

This paper is motivated by the interest in finding significant movements in financial stock prices. However, when the number of profitable opportunities is scarce, the prediction of these cases is difficult. In a previous work, we have introduced evolving decision rules （EDR） to detect financial opportunities. The objective of EDR is to classify the minority class （positive eases） in imbalaneed environments. EDR provides a range of classifications to find the best balance between not making mistakes and not missing opportunities. The goals of this paper are： 1） to show that EDR produces a range of solutions to suit the investor＇s preferences and 2） to analyze the factors that benefit the performance of EDR. A series of experiments was performed. EDR was tested using a data set from the London Financial Market. To analyze the EDR behaviour, another experiment was carried out using three artificial data sets, whose solutions have different levels of complexity. Finally, an illustrative example was provided to show how a bigger collection of rules is able to classify more positive eases in imbalanced data sets. Experimental results show that： 1） EDR offers a range of solutions to fit the risk guidelines of different types of investors, and 2） a bigger collection of rules is able to classify more positive eases in imbalanced environments.

关键词： Machine learning genetic programming (Gp) classification imbalanced classes evolution of rules

DEpICT:A High-level Formal Language for Modeling Constraint Satisfaction problems

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International Journal of Automation and computing 2008年第2期5卷 208-216页

作者： Abdulwahed M.Abbas edward p.k.tsang Ahmad H.Nasri Department of Computer Science The University of Balamand Department of Computing and Electronic SystemsThe University of EssexDepartment of Computer ScienceThe American University of BeirutP.O.Box 100TripoliLebanonWivenhoe ParkColchester CO4 3SQUKP.O.Box:11-0236Riad EI-SolhBeirutLebanon

The past decade witnessed rapid development of constraint satisfaction technologies, where algorithms are now able to cope with larger and harder problems. However, owing to the fact that constraints are inherently declarative, attention is quickly turning toward developing high-level programming languages within which such problems can be modeled and also solved. Along these lines, this paper presents DEpICT, the language. Its use is illustrated through modeling a number of benchmark examples. The paper continues with a description of a prototype system within which such models may be interpreted. The paper concludes with a description of a sample run of this interpreter showing how a problem modeled as such is typically solved.

关键词： Constraint satisfaction problems (CSps) and languages formal specifications typed predicate calculus language interpreter

Combinations of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms and Other Techniques

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International Journal of Automation and computing 2007年第3期4卷 273-280页

作者： Qingfu Zhang Jianyong Sun edward tsang Department of Computer Science University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester CO4 3SQUK School of Computer Science University of BirminghamBirmingham B15 2TTUK

This paper summaries our recent work on combining estimation of distribution algorithms （EDA） and other techniques for solving hard search and optimization problems： a） guided mutation, an offspring generator in which the ideas from EDAs and genetic algorithms are combined together, we have shown that an evolutionary algorithm with guided mutation outperforms the best GA for the maximum clique problem, b） evolutionary algorithms refining a heuristic, we advocate a strategy for solving a hard optimization problem with complicated data structure, and c） combination of two different local search techniques and EDA for numerical global optimization problems, its basic idea is that not all the new generated points are needed to be improved by an expensive local search.

关键词： Estimation distribution algorithm guided mutation memetic algorithms global optimization.

Market Structure and Information in payment Card Markets

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International Journal of Automation and computing 2011年第3期8卷 364-370页

作者： Biliana Alexandrova-kabadjova edward tsang Andreas krause General Directorate of payment Systems and Risk Banco de Mexico C.P. 06059 Mexico Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents University of EssexColchester CO4 3SQ UK School of Management University of BathBath BA2 7AY UK

This paper investigates the structure of the payment card market, with consumers and merchants basing their subscription decisions on different information sets. We find that the market structure depends crucially on the information set on which consumers and merchants base their subscription decisions. In the studied case, we observe that a market with few cards dominating only emerges when decisions are based on very limited information. Under the same conditions using a complete information set, all cards survive in the long run. The use of an agent-based model, focusing on the interactions between merchants and consumers, as a basis for subscription decisions allows us to investigate the dynamics of the market and the effect of the indirect network externalities rather than investigating only equilibrium outcomes.

关键词： Two-sided markets network externalities agent-based modelling competition payment cards.

Extraction of 17β-estradiol in water using non-imprinted polymer submicron particles in membrane filters

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2010年第11期22卷 1820-1825页

作者： Yiyan Li edward p. C. Lai Institute of Environmental Science Carleton University 1125 Colonel By Drive Ottawa Ontario K1S 5B6 Canada. Department of Chemistry Carleton University 1125 Colonel By Drive Ottawa Ontario K1S 5B6 Canada

17β-Estradiol （E2） is an endocrine disrupting chemical of harm to both animals and human beings at a low concentration level （ng/L）. It cannot be completely removed by wastewater treatments, and is often detected in both environment and drinking waters. The purpose of this feasibility study, towards environmental engineering in the field of water analysis and treatment, was to remove E2 by extraction using non-imprinted polymer （NIp） submicron particles. Experimental results showed that 0.5 mg/L of E2 could be completely extracted by adding 10 mg of NIp particles directly into 10 mL of water. However, the extraction efficiency decreased to 64% for 100 mL of water. prefilling the NIp particles inside a membrane filter showed a potential for water treatment of a large volume, requiring no effort to distribute the particles uniformly in the water. High extraction efficiency （80 ± 10）% for E2 was achieved for 100 mL of water. A total mass of 0.29 mg E2 was extracted from 1000 mL of water containing 0.8 mg/L E2 （by using only 10 mg of NIp particles）. Both efficiency and mass capacity can be increased, by scaling up the amount of NIp particles, towards environmental engineering applications.

关键词： 17β-estradiol non-imprinted polymer submicron particles membrane filter pollution abatement technology

One more chance of fistula healing in inflammatory bowel disease:Stem cell therapy

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2018年第12期6卷 493-500页

作者： Erica p Turse Francis E Dailey Maliha Naseer edward k partyka Veysel Tahan Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of Internal MedicineUniversity of Missouri Health Center

patients with fistulizing inflammatory bowel disease are traditionally difficult to treat. This patient population often experiences delayed or insufficient healing of fistulas using current standard regimens including anti-biotics, immunomodulators, anti-tumor necrosis factor--α drug, placement of setons, and surgical repair. Several studies over the last ten to fifteen years have been conducted using stem cell therapies with promising results in this patient population. These studies show stem cell therapy in fistulizing disease to be successful in healing between 60%--88% compared to currently 50% with infliximab. Moreover, remission was seen 24 wk to 52 wk in these studies. Further research with a multi--approach treatment using medications, stem cell therapy, and surgical interventions will likely be the future of this innovative treatment approach.

关键词： Crohn’s disease Stem cells Mesenchymal Fistulizing Fistula Inflammatory bowel disease

Use of sub-micron sized resin particles for removal of endocrine disrupting compounds and pharmaceuticals from water and wastewater

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2017年第1期29卷 256-264页

作者： Audrey Murray Banu rmeci edward p.C.Lai Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Carleton University Department of Chemistry Carleton University

Endocrine disrupting compounds（EDCs） and pharmaceuticals pose a challenge for water and wastewater treatment because they exist at very low concentrations in the presence of substances at much higher concentrations competing for adsorption ***-micron sized resin particles（approximately 300 nm in diameter）（SMR） were tested to evaluate their potential as a treatment for EDCs including：17-β estradiol（E2）,17-α ethinylestradiol（EE2）,estrone（E1）,bisphenol A（BpA）,and diethylstilbestrol（DES） as well as 12 *** were able to remove 98%of spiked E2,80%of EE2,87%of BpA,and up to 97%of DES from *** a 0.5 ppm mixture of E2,EE2,E1,BpA and DES,the minimum removal was24%（E2） and the maximum was 49%（DES）.They were also able to remove the pharmaceuticals from deionized water and ***,SMR are a promising advanced treatment for removal of both EDCs and pharmaceuticals.

关键词： Water treatment Wastewater treatment pharmaceuticals Endocrine disrupting compounds Micropollutants Adsorption

Hazards from lakes and reservoirs: new interpretation of the Vaiont disaster

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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第6期19卷 1717-1737页

作者： Alan p.DYkES edward N.BROMHEAD Centre for Engineering Environment and Society ResearchSchool of Engineering and the EnvironmentKingston UniversityPenrhyn RoadKingston upon ThamesKTi 2EEUK

Hazards in reservoirs and lakes arising from subaerial landslides causing impact waves(or ‘lake tsunamis’) are now well known, with several recent examples having been investigated in detail. The potential scale of such hazards was not widely known at the time of the Vaiont dam project in the 1950s and early 1960s, although a small wave triggered by a landslide at another new reservoir nearby in the Dolomites(northern Italy) drew the possible hazard to the attention of the Vaiont project’s managers. The Vaiont disaster in 1963 arose from a combination of disparate and seemingly unrelated factors and circumstances that led to an occurrence that could not have been imagined at that time. The ultimate cause was a very large landslide moving very rapidly into a reservoir and displacing the water. The resulting wave overtopped the dam to a height of around 175 m and around 2000 people were killed. This paper identifies and examines all of the issues surrounding the Vaiont dam and landslide in order to identify causal factors, contributory factors(including aggravating factors) and underlying factors. In doing so, it demonstrates that the disaster arose from the Vaiont dam project and cannot be attributed simply to the landslide. Underlying geological factors gave rise to the high speed of the landslide, which would have occurred anyway at some time. However, without the contributory factors that account for the presence of the reservoir, i.e. the choice of location for the project and management of the project with respect to a possible landslide hazard, there would have been no disaster. Indeed, the disaster could have been avoided if the reservoir could have been emptied pending further ground investigations. Understanding of this case provides many lessons for future dam projects in mountainous locations but also highlights an ongoing and perhaps under-appreciated risk from similar events involving other water bodies including geologically recent lakes formed behind n

关键词： Vaiont landslide Impulse wave Lake tsunami Dam project Causal factors for disaster

Residential building performance analysis at near extreme weather conditions in Hong kong through a thermal-comfort-based strategy

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Building Simulation 2023年第1期16卷 13-25页

作者： k.F.Fong C.k.Lee kevin ka-Lun Lau edward Yan Yung Ng Division of Building Science and Technology College of EngineeringCity University of Hong KongHong KongChina Department of Civil Engineering and Natural Resources Lulea University of TechnologySweden School of Architecture The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina

The precise building performance assessment of residential housings in subtropical regions is usually more difficult than that for the commercial premises due to the much more complicated behavior of the occupants with regard to the change in indoor *** conventional use of a fixed schedule for window opening,clothing insulation and cooling equipment operation cannot reflect the real situation when the occupants respond to the change in thermal comfort,thus affecting the appropriateness of the assessment *** rectify the situation,a new modeling strategy in which the modification of the various operation schedules was based on the calculated thermal comfort(TC),was developed in this *** this new TC-based strategy,the realistic building performances under different cooling provision scenarios applied to a high-rise residential building under the near extreme weather conditions were investigated and *** was found that sole provision of ventilation fans could not meet the zone thermal comfort by over 68%of the time,and air-conditioning was *** optimal use of ventilation fans for cooling could only help reduce the total cooling energy demand by less than 12%at best which could only be realistically evaluated by adopting the present *** studies were conducted which revealed that some design factors could offer opportunities for reducing the total cooling energy under the near extreme weather conditions.

关键词： predicted mean vote thermal comfort ventilation potential building performance simulation residential housings