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Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第1期2卷 21-34页

作者： Victor M.Moreno Baltazar Espinoza derdei bichara Susan A.Holechek Carlos Castillo-Chavez Simon A.Levin Mathematical Computational and Modeling Sciences CenterArizona State UniversityP.O.Box 873901TempeAZ 85287-3901United States Biodesign Center for Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology Biodesign InstituteArizona State UniversityTempeAZ 85287-5401United States School of Life Sciences Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ 85287-4501United States Department of Mathematics and Center for Computational and Applied Mathematics California State UniversityFullertonCA 92831United States Departamento the Ingenieria Biomedica Universidad de Los AndesBogotaColombia Rector's Office Yachay Tech UniversityUrcuquiEcuador

In November 2015,El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus(ZIKV)infection,an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two *** agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of ***,in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil,the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was *** this paper,we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty,crime and ***,the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV *** make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility,within highly distinct environments,may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but *** depend on existing mobility patterns,levels of disease risk,and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas,particularly in those where violence is *** results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of *** quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of *** number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations.

关键词： Vector-borne diseases Zika virus Residence times Multi-patch model

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