检索结果-南通市图书馆

Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 1-12页

作者： Mauricio Santillana Ashleigh Tuite Tahmina Nasserie Paul Fine david Champredon Leonid Chindelevitch Jonathan Dushoff david fisman Computation Health Informatics Program Boston Children's HospitalBostonMAUSA Department of Pediatrics Harvard Medical SchoolBontonMAUSA Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of TorontoTorontoOntarioCanada BlueDot TorontoOntarioCanada Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory York UniversityTorontoOntarioCanada School of Computing Science Simon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada Department of Theoretical Biology McMaster UniversityHamiltonOntarioCanada Department of Medicine Faculty of MedicineUniversity of TorontoTorontoOntarioCanada

Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics,but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a *** recently introduced a single equation model(the incidence decay with exponential adjustment,or IDEA model)that can be used for short-term epidemiological *** the mid-19th century,*** Farr made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a bell-shaped *** noticed that this time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula(“Farr's law”)that could be used for epidemic *** show here that the IDEA model follows Farr's law,and show that for intuitive assumptions,Farr's Law can be derived from the IDEA ***,we show that both mathematical approaches,Farr's Law and the IDEA model,resemble solutions of a susceptible-infectious-removed(SIR)compartmental differential-equation model in an asymptotic limit,where the changes of disease transmission respond to control measures,and not only to the depletion of susceptible *** suggests that the concept of the reproduction number eR 0T was implicitly captured in Farr's(pre-microbial era)work,and also suggests that control of epidemics,whether via behavior change or intervention,is as integral to the natural history of epidemics as is the dynamics of disease transmission.

关键词： equation exponential decay

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19:A next generation matrix approach

引用

Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 405-408页

作者： david N.fisman Amy L.Greer Ashleigh R.Tuite Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of TorontoTorontoCanada Department of Population Medicine University of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved *** are thought to have two modes of effect:they prevent infection with COVID-19 in wearers;and prevent transmission by individuals with subclinical *** used a simple next-generation matrix approach to estimate the conditions under which masks would reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19 under a threshold of *** model takes into account the possibility of assortative mixing,where mask users interact preferentially with other mask *** make 3 key observations:***,even with suboptimal efficacy in both prevention of acquisition and transmission of infection,could substantially decrease the reproduction number for COVID-19 if widely *** masking may be sufficient to suppress epidemics where R has been brought close to 1 via other measures(e.g.,distancing).3.“Assortment”within populations(the tendency for interactions between masked individuals to be more likely than interactions between masked and unmasked individuals)would rapidly erode the impact of *** such,mask uptake needs to be fairly universal to have an *** simple model suggests that widespread uptake of masking could be determinative in suppressing COVID-19 epidemics in regions with R(t)at or near 1.

关键词： Masks Epidemiology COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Next generation matrix Mixing Assortative Epidemics

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2:A mathematical model

引用

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 701-712页

作者： Gabrielle Brankston david N.fisman Zvonimir Poljak Ashleigh R.Tuite Amy L.Greer Department of Population Medicine University of GuelphCanada Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of TorontoCanada Centre for Immunization Readiness Public Health Agency of CanadaOttawaOntarioCanada

Background Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic,policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the *** individuals will voluntarily engage in self-protective behaviour when there is an increasing infectious disease risk,the extent to which this occurs and its impact on an epidemic is not *** This paper describes a deterministic disease transmission model exploring the impact of individual avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated avoidance behaviour on epidemic outcomes during the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ontario,Canada(September 1,2020 to February 28,2021).The model incorporates an information feedback function based on empirically derived behaviour data describing the degree to which avoidance behaviour changed in response to the number of new daily cases *** Voluntary avoidance behaviour alone was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 23.1%,the total number of hospitalizations by 26.2%,and cumulative deaths by 27.5%over 6 months compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there were no interventions or avoidance behaviour.A provincial shutdown order issued on December 26,2020 was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 66.7%,the total number of hospitalizations by 66.8%,and the total number of deaths by 67.2%compared to the counterfactual *** Given the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a pre-vaccine era,individual avoidance behaviour in the absence of government action would have resulted in a moderate reduction in disease however,it would not have been sufficient to entirely mitigate transmission and the associated risk to the population in *** action during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario reduced infections,protected hospital capacity,and saved lives.

关键词： Mathematical modelling COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Human behaviour

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

哥伦比亚大学商学院经济学家如何打击犯罪

引用

董事会 2009年第6期 94-95页

作者： Raymond fisman

2008年8月，瑞士警察突然探访了阿尔斯通公司（Alstom）的数间办公室，这家法国公司在全球多个国家通过行贿来获得基础设施合同。审慎的审计师和聪明的执法人员们揭发了阿尔斯通丑闻以及西门子和哈利伯顿（Halliburton）等公司的腐败事... 详细信息

2008年8月，瑞士警察突然探访了阿尔斯通公司（Alstom）的数间办公室，这家法国公司在全球多个国家通过行贿来获得基础设施合同。审慎的审计师和聪明的执法人员们揭发了阿尔斯通丑闻以及西门子和哈利伯顿（Halliburton）等公司的腐败事件。最近，一个新的身份加入了揭发违法交易的行列——一些经济学家变成了侦探，在法律经济学（Forensic Economics）领域做出了开创性的工作。

关键词：经济学家哥伦比亚大学打击犯罪阿尔斯通公司商学院法律经济学基础设施执法人员

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

苯扎贝特对肥胖患者2型糖尿病发病率的影响

引用

世界核心医学期刊文摘(心脏病学分册) 2006年第4期 51-52页

作者： Tenenbaum A. Motro M. fisman E.Z. 潘闽 Cardiac Rehabilitation Institute Chaim Sheba Medical Center Tel-Hashomer 52621 Israel

Aims: To assess the effect of fibric acid derivative bezafibrate on incidence of type 2 diabetes in obese patients over a median 6.3 years follow-up period. Methods and results: The study sample comprised 339 non-diabetic obese patients(body mass index≥30.0 kg/m2) aged 42-74. Patients received either bezafibrate retard 400 mg(178 patients) or placebo(161 patients) once daily. Development of new diabetes was recorded in 98 patients: in 56(37.0%) from the placebo group vs. 42(27.1%) from the bezafibrate group,(P log-rank=0.01). The median time(interquartile range) until onset of new diabetes was significantly delayed in patients on bezafibrate when compared with those on placebo: 4.0(2.1-5.0) vs. 2.0(0.5-3.5) years, P=0.002. Multivariable anal ysis identified bezafibrate treatment as an independent predictor of reduced risk of new diabetes with hazard ratio(HR) 0.59[95%confidence interval(CI) 0.39-0.91]. Other significant variables associated with future overt type 2 diabetes in obese patients were triglycerides(50 mg/dL increment) with HR 1.15(95%CI 1.02-1.28) and fasting glucose(10 mg/dL increment) with HR 2.27(95%CI 1.83-2.81). Conclusion: Bezafibrate, when compared with placebo, reduced the incidence and delayed the onset of type 2 diabetes in obese patients over a long-term follow-up period.

关键词：苯扎贝特型糖尿病肥胖患者发病率

来源：

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

同方期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

白细胞介素-6与心绞痛和(或)已治愈心肌梗死患者未来心血管事件发生风险之间的关系

引用

世界核心医学期刊文摘（心脏病学分册） 2006年第11期2卷 30-30页

作者： fisman E.Z. Benderly M. Esper R.J. 高登峰 Sackler Faculty of Medicine Tel-Aviv University Tel-Aviv Israel Dr.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of interleukin-6(IL-6) for myocardial infarction(MI) and mortality in a population with stable coronary artery disease(CAD) during a mean period of 6.3 years. IL-6 is a major proinflammatory cytokine of acute phase response; elevated levels are associated with worse prognosis in unstable angina and after acute MI. However, data regarding its long-term prognostic value in stable CAD are limited and controversial. A nested case-control study design was used. Of 3,090 patients with stable CAD, 129 with an adequate blood sample for IL-6 and who reached the end points(MI or sudden death) were randomly selected. Each case was 1 ∶1 matched with 129 controls(alive at the end of the study and free of cardiovascular events) according to age, gender, and treatment. Of the 129 cases, 113 had a MI as the initial event, and for the other 16 the initial event was sudden death. There were 8 patients who first had a MI and later died suddenly. IL-6 was significantly higher in cases(2.34 pg/ml) than in controls(1.65 pg/ml)(p=0.0004). IL-6 was significantly correlated with C-reactive protein(r=0.2, p=0.002); a borderline significance was also found for fibrinogen(r=0.11, p=0.07). Each increase of 1 pg/ml in IL-6 was associated with a 1.70(range 1.23 to 2.45) increased relative odds of subsequent MI or sudden death. Events rate per 1000 patients-years for the 5 quintiles of IL-6 were 72.26, 89.61, 79.76, 142.53, and 181.08, respectively(p< 0.0001). A significantly higher risk in the upper quintile was found(odds ratio, 3.44; 95%confidence interval 1.57 to 8.13). In conclusion, elevated IL-6 levels are strongly associated with future cardiac events and mortality in a population with stable CAD during a long-term follow-up.

关键词：心血管事件白细胞介素预测价值预后预测前炎性细胞因子心脏事件急性期反应位组病例对照研究

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：