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Assessment of the Spatio-Temporal Trends of Annual Extreme Temperature Indices over Tanzania during the Period of 1982-2022

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第1期12卷 33-50页

作者： Justus Renatus Mbawala Huixin Li daudi mikidadi ndabagenga Jiani Zeng Peter Nicky Mlonganile Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China National Meteorological Training Centre Kigoma Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Forecasting Office Kilimanjaro International Airport (KIA) Kilimanjaro Tanzania

Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.

关键词： Climate Extremes Absolute Extreme Temperature Percentile Extreme Temperature Mann-Kendall Test NASA

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Analysis of Changes of Extreme Temperature during June to August Season over Tanzania

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第2期12卷 44-56页

作者： Justus Renatus Mbawala Huixin Li Jiani Zeng daudi mikidadi ndabagenga Anqin Tan Daniela Janine Beukes Praksed Mrosso Rafael Samuel Ekwacu Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China National Meteorological Training Centre Kigoma Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Forecasting Office Kilimanjaro International Airport (KIA) Kilimanjaro Tanzania Namibia Meteorological Service Windhoek Namibia Uganda National Meteorological Authority Kampala Uganda

Natural and human systems are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes, which contributes to the repercussions of climate variability and the probability of disasters. The impacts of both natural and human-caused climate variability are reflected in the reported changes in climate extremes. Particularly at the local community levels in the majority of the regions, there is currently a dearth of information regarding the distribution, dynamics, and trends of excessive temperatures among the majority of Tanzanians. Over the years 1982-2022, this study examined trends in Tanzania’s extreme temperature over the June to August season. Based on the distinction between absolute and percentile extreme temperatures, a total of eight ETCCDI climate indices were chosen. Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the presence of trends in extreme climatic indices and the Sen’s Slope was applied to compute the extent of the trends in temperature extremes. The study showed that in most regions, there is significant increase of warm days and nights while the significant decrease of cold days and nights was evident to most areas. Moreover, nighttime warming surpasses daytime warming in the study area. The study suggests that anthropogenic influences may contribute to the warming trend observed in extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures globally, with Tanzania potentially affected, as indicated in the current research. The overall results of this study reflect patterns observed in various regions worldwide, where warm days and nights are on the rise while cold days and nights are diminishing.

关键词： Indices Warm Days and Nights Cold Days and Nights ECA&D Tanzania

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Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第12期11卷 182-208页

作者： daudi mikidadi ndabagenga Jinhua Yu Justus Renatus Mbawala Charles Yusuph Ntigwaza Ali Said Juma School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Forecasting Office Kilimanjaro International Airport (KIA) Kilimanjaro Tanzania National Meteorological Training Centre (NMTC) Kigoma Tanzania Ministry of Education Zanzibar (MOEZ) Zanzibar Tanzania

Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the country is crucial. This study used data from 28 meteorological stations for 1981-2020 period to give an annual and seasonal analysis of the patterns of 10 ETCCDI’s extreme precipitation indices over the regions. At annual scale, the results showed that increasing trends had high frequency percentage than the decreasing ones, collecting about 76% in total. The decreasing trend was approximately 24%, and most of the stations with increasing percentage in trend are concentrated in Northern coast, Central, West, North-eastern highlands and Lake Victoria Basin. Most of the stations depicted negative trend are concentrated over Southern region. This highlights that extreme precipitation events have increased over the country for the period 1981-2020. At seasonal scale, during October to December (OND);the patterns of extreme precipitation climatic indices except R99p, showed positive significant increasing trend over Lake Victoria Basin and some Western parts of the country. In general, spatial patterns indicate decrease of precipitation over most parts of the country during OND. The seasonal average time series depicted non-significant positive trend during March to April (MAM) season, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) which showed non-significant decreasing trend. Over the highest mountain in Africa, Kilimanjaro;the study has revealed significant decrease in Annual total-wet Precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of heavy (very heavy) days of precipitation R10 mm (R20 mm) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) during MAM season. While the maximum one-day precipitation amount (RX1 day) was observed to decrease significantly over the Mountain during OND season. The result is very important in risk assessment and preparedness perspective in planning climate change mitigat

关键词： Extreme Precipitation Climatic Indices Tanzania Mann-Kendall ETCCDI Trend

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Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21^st Century

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第3期12卷 192-221页

作者： Fabien Habiyakare Tong Jiang Ibrahim Yahaya daudi ndabagenga James Kagabo Buda Su School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) Kigali Rwanda Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China Department of Geography Gombe State University Gombe State Nigeria

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21st century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

关键词： Extreme Precipitation Mann-Kendall Trend Projections Oceanic System Africa

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