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Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales,Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第3期8卷 296-307页

作者： Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez Gabriel A. Bernal daniela zuloaga Mabel C. Marulanda Omar-Darío Cardona Sebastián Henao Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria(CIMNE) 08034 BarcelonaSpain INGENIAR Ltda. BogotaD.C.110221Colombia Instituto de Estudios Ambientales(IDEA) Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede ManizalesManizales 170004Colombia Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales Manizales 170004Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss *** the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

关键词： CAPRA Earthquake insurance Manizales (Colombia) Probabilistic seismic risk assessment Risk retention and transfer

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Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales,Colombia

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第3期8卷 270-283页

作者： Gabriel A.Bernal Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez daniela zuloaga Julián Tristancho Diana González Omar-Darío Cardona INGENIAR Ltda Centre Internacional de Metodes Numerics en Enginyeria(CIMNE) Universidad Distrital Francisco Joséde Caldas Instituto de Estudios Ambientales(IDEA) Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales

The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating anautomatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

关键词： Emergency response Manizales (Colombia) Multi-hazard risk assessment Probabilistic hazard analysis Probabilistic risk assessment Urban planning

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