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Analysing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Benue River Basin (North Cameroon)

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2024年第8期16卷 569-583页

作者： Elisabeth Dassou Fita Auguste Ombolo Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo daniel bogno saïdou Augustin Daïka Steven Chouto Felix Abbo Mbele Department of Meteorology and Hydrology The National Advanced School of Engineering of Maroua The University of Maroua Maroua Cameroon Higher Institute of Agriculture Wood Water and Environment The University of Ebolowa Ebolowa Cameroun Department of Hydraulics and Water Management The National Advanced School of Engineering of Maroua The University of Maroua Maroua Cameroon Climate Change Research Laboratory (CCRL) National Institute of Cartography Yaoundé Cameroon Department of Geography Faculty of Arts Letters and Social Sciences University of Maroua Maroua Cameroon

In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.

关键词： Climate Variability Hydrological Modelling Climate Models Upper Benue Basin Northern Cameroon

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