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Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

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Chinese Geographical Science 2024年第2期34卷 294-310页

作者： XU Ziyue MA Kai YUAN Xu he daming Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-security Kunming 650500China

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological ***,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change *** research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic *** crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE She based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of *** showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and *** changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,***,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security *** res

关键词： climate change hydrologic response Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6) MIKE She(Système Hydrologique Europeén) Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin

Variation in transboundary flow of Nujiang River and its correlation with summer monsoon under the effect of the Longitudinal Range-Gorge

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第A02期52卷 148-155页

作者： YOU WeiHong GUO ZhiRong he daming Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Resource Environment and Earth Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing Information Engineering University Nanjing 210044 China Asia Intemational Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

在在纵的范围峡(LRG ) 的地形学的效果下面的 Nujiang 河 transboundary 流动和夏天季风活动的变化之间的关系被检验。学习基于观察的河流动数据，和他们与环境预言( NCEP )的国家中心和大气的研究( NCAR )的国家中心的重新分析的 U/V ... 详细信息

在在纵的范围峡(LRG ) 的地形学的效果下面的 Nujiang 河 transboundary 流动和夏天季风活动的变化之间的关系被检验。学习基于观察的河流动数据，和他们与环境预言( NCEP )的国家中心和大气的研究( NCAR )的国家中心的重新分析的 U/V 风领域的关联的统计分析，并且国家海洋、大气的管理( NOAA )的出去的 Longwave 放射( OLR )的数据。transboundary 河流动主要被集中在，这被结束湿或雨季(从 5 月到 10 月) ，特别地在夏天或洪水季节(从 6 月到 8 月) 。有一个清楚的趋势让 transboundary 河流动自从 1970 年代，与时间增加，自从 1980 年代特别地明显。由于地形学的东方西方障碍和 LRG 的纵贯的走廊效果，夏天河流动变化大部分与风被相关在高、低的高度南方、在北方。相反，河流动变化显然与风被相关仅仅在高高度，不是在低高度在东方、西。在 OLR 和河流动变化之间的否定关联也是明显的。这些关系是用索引在这篇论文建议了的二夏天季风描述的份量上。索引 MI 2 包括动态并且 thermodynamical 在 Nujiang 河盆的 LRG 区域完成并且给 transboundary 河流动变化的一个通常好的代表。更大的 MI 2 代表更强壮的夏天季风活动和更高的 transboundary 河流动，当更小的 MI 2 建议更弱的季风循环和更低的水流动时。

关键词：怒江夏季季候风纵向岭谷区

The variation and regional differences of precipitation in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge the Region

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第A02期52卷 59-73页

作者： he daming LI ShaoJuan ZHANG YiPing Asia Intemational Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanic Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650223 China

这份报纸基于记录在 36 个气象学的车站在 1960 ～ 2001 期间观察了的每日的降雨在纵的范围峡区域(LRGR ) 检验降水的地区性的差别。在不同空间、时间的规模的降水的地区性的差别被分析，在完成在 LRGR 的特殊走廊障碍功能下面。结果显... 详细信息

这份报纸基于记录在 36 个气象学的车站在 1960 ～ 2001 期间观察了的每日的降雨在纵的范围峡区域(LRGR ) 检验降水的地区性的差别。在不同空间、时间的规模的降水的地区性的差别被分析，在完成在 LRGR 的特殊走廊障碍功能下面。结果显示很靠近的连接在地区性的差别和走廊障碍功能之间存在：在北 LRGR 的大多数区域(> 26 湩？

关键词：地区差异性纵向岭谷区地域性走廊

The correlations of multi- timescale characteristics of water level processes in Lancang-Mekong River

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第B11期51卷 50-58页

作者： LI Shaojuan he daming FU Kaidao Asia International Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091China

With the recent dramatic advances of the significant regional cooperations ineconomy around Lancang-Mekong River Subregion, the changes, regularity and influences of the waterresource in this area have received remarkable international attentions and become a focus in theresearch community of water resource. Based on the daily water level from 1986 through 2004 observedat Yunjinghong station and Chiang Saen gauging station, a quantitative examination has been madefor the multi-timescale characteristics and correlations of the water level variations between theupper and lower reaches of Lancang-Mekong River through binomial coefficient weighted averagemethod, five-year moving average method, and other statistical methods. Besides, the majorinfluences of cascade hydropower dams in the main upstream on the transboundary water level duringkey years are also reviewed. The results demonstrate that the annual variations of water level inLancang River exhibit multi-timescale characteristics. And positive correlations are observedbetween the multi-timescale variations of the Lancang River water level in lower reaches and theLower-Mekong River water level in upper reaches. Annual variations of the water level in upper-lowerreaches exhibit prominent interannual and interdecadal features, during the recent 18 years, whiledifferences mainly happen to the smaller time-scales. That shows the water level annual variationsat both stations are influenced by the climatic factors (e.g. precipitation) and solar activity. Thenormal operation of cascade hydropower dams in the main upstream of Lancnag River have some interimeffects on downstream monthly or yearly water level. It may have more impacts on short-term dailywater level, such as of few day''s variations. It also can be found that the individual monthly-highwater level between two stations show prominent positive correlation, as well as the dates of *** as far as the multi-timescale correlations of water level in Lancang and

关键词：水层变更多时标关联澜沧江-湄公河水文学

River basin landscape pattern and its modern earth surface process of the LRGR

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第B11期51卷 33-38页

作者： GAN Shu he daming FENG Yan Asian International River Center of Yunnan University Kunming650091 China

Directing at the the longitudinal range-gorge region's special constituting condition of river basin geography landscape, the authors synthetically used the data analyses and spatial information treatment technique, selected corresponding measurable homology indicators, comparatively analyzed the characteristic difference of different river basin's landscape constitution patterns in the longitudinal range-gorge region, researched into different river net patterns and land cover conditions of each river basin landscape, and explored the river basin's landscape form and its spatial distributed chracters. Based on the analyses on river basin's landscape composition and its spatial distribution characters, this study researched into the main driving factor of modern earth surface process in the longitudinal range-gorge region, analyzed the relationship between the basin landscape changing and its modern earth surface process, finally completed a series of the potential ecological hydrology effect analyses.

关键词：江河流域风光现代地球表面作用生态水文学效数据分析

Climatic difference in dry and wet season under effect of the Longitudinal Range-Gorge and its influence on transboundary river runoff

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第B11期51卷 69-79页

作者： YOU Weihong DUAN Changchun he daming School of Resource Environment and Earth Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Meteorological Institute of Yunnan Province Kunming 650034China Asia Internalional Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

Based on observed data of transboundary river runoffs in the Longitudinal RangeGorge Region (LRGR) and those of precipitation and air temperature fields in Yunnan, climatic variability in dry and wet seasons under the impact of LRGR and its influence on transboundary river runoff are studied by means of statistical analysis and wavelet transforms. Results show that latitude variations of high correlation center for precipitation field and corresponding transboundary river runoff are not so notable due to the underlying topography of LRGR, while longitude variations are highly marked. In dry season, greater precipitation and slighter relative deviation are observed in the eastern part as compared to those in the western part of LRGR; while lower average temperature and greater standard deviation are found in the eastern part. In wet season, greater precipitation and slighter relative deviation are observed in the western part, while lower average temperature and similar standard deviation are found in the eastern part. Either in dry or wet season, relative deviation of eastern runoff is always greater than that of the western one. LRGR's barrier action is stronger for southwest monsoon but weaker for northeast one. Under the effect of LRGR, precipitation variations in the eastern and western parts are primarily found in smaller timescales, and the variations tend to be insignificant as timescales increase; whereas slighter temperature variations are observed In recent years, precipitation in wet season tended to increase, which in turn resulted in the greater runoff of transboundary rivers. While in the past decade, air temperature showed a climbing trend in both dry and wet season in the LRGR.

关键词：干季湿季气候差异贯穿边界河径流差异水文学

Sediment change under climate changes and human activities in the Yuanjiang-Red River Basin

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第A02期52卷 164-171页

作者： he daming REN Jing FU KaiDao LI YunGang Asia International Rivers Center of Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China College of Tourism and Geography Science Yunnan Normal University Kunming 650092 China

气候变化和人的活动是到多山的河里的沉积变化的主要影响因素。基于超过 40 年“记录，在在 Yuanjiang 河(上面的红河) 的更低的活动范围计量车站的 Manhao 的推迟的沉积负担(SSL ) 变化。在这篇论文，沉积和它的驱动程序的变化通过象... 详细信息

气候变化和人的活动是到多山的河里的沉积变化的主要影响因素。基于超过 40 年“记录，在在 Yuanjiang 河(上面的红河) 的更低的活动范围计量车站的 Manhao 的推迟的沉积负担(SSL ) 变化。在这篇论文，沉积和它的驱动程序的变化通过象同步数据比较，传统的关联，线性回归，和 Granger 诱发性那样的不同方法被分析。结果证明(1 ) 年度平均沉积集中(SSC ) 和在 Manhao 车站的 SSL 的一般趋势从 1960 年代正在增加到 1990 年代，并且在 1984 以后有一个快变化时期；( 2 )在1960年代，1970年代，1980年代和1990年代的不同时期期间，在 Manhao 车站的 SSL 和 SSC 是 1.87 ， 2.49 ， 3.129 3.63 kg/m ( 3 )，和 28.7x 10 ( 6 )， 40.3 x 10 ( 6 )， 44.1 x 10 ( 6 )， 60.3 x 10 ( 6 ) t/a 分别地；( 3 )关联分析和 Granger 诱发性测试证明在集水的气候变化是到在1960年代和1990年代的时期的沉积变化的主要开车因素，但是由沉积变化上的多山的人的行动的影响由气候在1970年代和1980年代改变的本地人是比那强烈的；(4 ) 在沉积变化和森林范围变化之间的关联是否定的，它进一步证明沉积变化被人的活动强烈在盆影响。

关键词：沉积物气候变化红河纵向岭谷区

Response of downstream sediment to water resource development in mainstream of the Lancang River

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第B11期51卷 119-126页

作者： FU Kaidao he daming LI Shaojuan Asian International Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650091China

The impact of hydropower cascades of the Lancang River on downstreamsedimentation has become one of the key problems in the research of the transboundary water resourcedevelopment and its possible environmental effects. In this paper, the newest sediment data seriesspanning 17 years (1987-2003) at Yunjinghong hydrometric station and Chiang Saen hydrometricstation, in northern Thailand, are analyzed to reveal these effects. Monthly mean sedimentconcentration data of the two stations are compared in-phase and yearly series are analyzed by themethod of correlation and regression analysis and causality test. The analysis result shows that,though both of them are located at lower reaches of Manwan and Dachaoshan hydropower stations whichare already constructed and in use, the sediment responses of the two stations are different underthe regulation of the hydropower stations. Annual series at Yunjinghong station are positivelycorrelated but do not match well with those at Chiang Saen station. In addition, the results ofGranger causality test on the time series also suggest that the series of maximum monthly meansediment concentration of the Yunjinghong station each year may give cause for the ones of ChiangSaen station, while the series of minimum monthly mean sediment concentration each year and annualmean sediment concentration of Yunjinghong do not evidently give cause for the ones of the otherstation. Undoubtedly, this discovery will provide new evidences to assess the impacts of cascadesconstruction in mainstream of the Lancang River on the variation of downsiream sediment and itstransboundary effects.

关键词：澜沧江-湄公河沉积物浓度变异回归分析水文学

Comparison of spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of water temperatures between Lancang River and Mekong River

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第A02期52卷 141-147页

作者： ZHANG YiPing GAO FU he daming LI ShaoJuan Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650223 China Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650204 China Asian International Rivers Center Yunnan University Kunming 650014 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

水温度(WT ) 是水身体物理性质的重要指示物之一。在河连续统在 WT 上理解空间时间的变化的特征将帮助开发合理 river-water-resource 利用，以避免可能的生态学危机，并且在深奥区域充分利用自然资源计划。作为在亚洲的最大的国际河连... 详细信息

水温度(WT ) 是水身体物理性质的重要指示物之一。在河连续统在 WT 上理解空间时间的变化的特征将帮助开发合理 river-water-resource 利用，以避免可能的生态学危机，并且在深奥区域充分利用自然资源计划。作为在亚洲的最大的国际河连续统， Lancang 湄公河河分区(作为更大的湄公河分区知道，公克) 成为了著名经济、政治、生态的自然领土。这研究检验了 Lancang 河水的空间时间的分发特征。温度，用从 11 的 WT 价值的观察数据，水文学在 1960 年代驻扎。而且， Yunjinghong 水文学之间的 WT 差别驻扎(在中国的一个代表性的车站) 并且 Chiang Saen 水文学车站(在泰国的一个代表性的车站) 被分析。结果显示了那：1 ) 水温度比上面的部分在河连续统的更低的部分是更高的。纬度变化是主要影响因素。这效果比在雨季在旱季是更明显的，在冬季更明显比在夏天，和平均最小的 WT 明显的更多比平均最大的 WT ， 2 )之间的 WT 差别上面并且河连续统的更低的部分在研究时期期间由于更低的部分( Chiang Saen 水文学车站)的上面的部分( Yunjinghong 水文学车站)和 WT 的明显的减少的 WT 的小增加是减少。因此， WT 的参数被纬度影响，并且Lancang湄公河河连续统躺在纵贯的方向因此热带水的动物例如热带水的鱼，不能在冬季季节在这河连续统的上面的部分幸存，当时在里面夏天季节，热带水的动物适当地游泳到上面的溪流。更低的湄公河河里的水温度被地区性的水温度和地区性的气候变化主要影响。

关键词：澜沧江湄公河水温分布情况