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The climate impact of high seas shipping

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National Science Review 2023年第3期10卷 102-116页

作者： Yuze Li Peng Jia Shangrong Jiang Haijiang Li Haibo Kuang Yongmiao Hong Shouyang Wang Xueting Zhao dabo guan Questrom School of Business Boston University Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies Dalian Maritime University School of Maritime Economics and Management Dalian Maritime University School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Forecasting Science Chinese Academy of Sciences School of Entrepreneurship and Management Shanghai Tech University Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University School of International Development University of East Anglia

Strict carbon emission regulations are set with respect to countries’ territorial seas or shipping activities in exclusive economic zones to meet their climate change commitment under the Paris ***,no shipping policies on carbon mitigation are proposed for the world’s high seas regions,which results in carbon intensive shipping *** this paper,we propose a Geographic-based Emission Estimation Model(GEEM) to estimate shipping GHG emission patterns on high seas *** results indicate that annual emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2-e) in shipping on the high seas reached 211.60 million metric tonnes in 2019,accounting for about one-third of all shipping emissions globally and exceeding annual GHG emissions of countries such as *** average emission from shipping activities on the high seas is growing at approximately 7.26% per year,which far surpasses the growth rate of global shipping emission at 2.23%.We propose implementation of policies on each high seas region with respect to the main emission driver identified from our *** policy evaluation results show that carbon mitigation policies could reduce emissons by 25.46 and 54.36 million tonnes CO2-e in the primary intervention stage and overall intervention stage,respectively,with 12.09% and 25.81% reduction rates in comparison to the2019 annual GHG emissions in high seas shipping.

关键词： high seas international shipping GHG emission policy evaluation emission drivers

Global mitigation efforts cannot neglect emerging emitters

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National Science Review 2022年第12期9卷 82-89页

作者： Can Cui dabo guan Daoping Wang Jing Meng Vicky Chemutai Paul Brenton Shaohui Zhang Yuli Shan Qiang Zhang Steven J.Davis Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction University College London Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge Centre for Nature and Climate World Economic Forum School of Urban and Regional Science Shanghai University of Finance and Economics The World Bank School of Economics and Management Beihang University International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Irvine

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change have historically focused on reducing energy-related CO2emissions from countries with either the largest economies(*** EU and the USA)and/or the largest populations(*** and India).However,in recent years,emissions have surged among a different and much less-examined group of countries,raising concerns that a next generation of high-emitting economies will obviate current mitigation ***,we analyse the trends and drivers of emissions in each of the 59 countries where emissions in 2010-2018 grew faster than the global average(excluding China and India),project their emissions under a range of longer-term energy scenarios and estimate the costs of decarbonization *** emissions from these ’emerging emitters’ reach as much as 7.5 GtCO2/year in the baseline 2.5° scenari—substantially greater than the emissions from these regions in previously published scenarios that would limit warming to 1.5℃ or even 2℃.Such unanticipated emissions would in turn require non-emitting energy deployment from all sectors within these emerging emitters,and faster and deeper reductions in emissions from other countries to meet international climate ***,the annual costs of keeping emissions at the low level are in many cases 0.2%-4.1% of countries’ gross domestic production,pointing to potential trade-offs with poverty-reduction goals and/or the need for economic support and low-carbon technology transfer from historically high-emitting *** results thus highlight the critical importance of ramping up mitigation efforts in countries that to this point have been largely ignored.

关键词： emerging emiters developing countries climate change mitigation CO_2 emissions net zero

Rapid improvement of PM2.5 pollution and associated health benefits in China during 2013–2017

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第12期62卷 1847-1856页

作者： Tao XUE Jun LIU Qiang ZHANG guannan GENG Yixuan ZHENG Dan TONG Zhu LIU dabo guan Yu BO Tong ZHU Kebin HE Jiming HAO Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China College of Environmental Science and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Exposure to fine particulate matter(PM2.5)is known to harm public *** China,after implementation of aggressive emissions control measures under the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control(2013-2017),air quality has significantly *** this work,we investigated changes in PM2.5 exposure and the associated health impacts in China for the period *** used an optimal estimator of PM2.5 combining in-situ observations,satellite measurements,and simulations from a chemical transport model to derive the spatial and temporal variations in PM2.5 exposure,and then used welldeveloped exposure-response functions to estimate the premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 *** found that national population-weighed annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 67.4μgm-3 in 2013 to 45.5μgm-3 in 2017(32%reduction).This rapid decrease in PM2.5 pollution led to a 14%reduction in premature deaths due to long-term *** estimated that,during 2013-2017,the premature deaths attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure decreased from 1.2 million(95%CI:1.0,1.3;fraction of total mortality:13%)in 2013 to 1.0 million(95%CI:0.9,1.2;10%)in *** the rapid decrease in annual mean PM2.5 concentrations,health benefits associated with reduced long-term exposure were limited,because for many cities,the PM2.5 levels remain at the portion where the exposure-response function is less steeper than that at the lowconcentration *** also found that the deaths associated with acute exposure decreased by 61%during 2013-2017 due to rapid reduction in the number of heavily polluted *** results confirm that clean air policies in China have mitigated the air pollution crisis;however,continuous emissions reduction efforts are required to protect citizens from air pollution.

关键词： Air quality improvement Health impact assessment Action plan of air pollution prevention and control PM2.5 Mortality

Estimating inter-regional trade flows in China： A sector-specific statistical model

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第10期25卷 1247-1263页

作者： LIU Weidong LlXin LIU Hongguang TANG Zhipeng guan dabo Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China Sustainability Research Institute School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds LS2 9JT UK College of Public Administration Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing 210095 China ST Edmund's College University of Cambridge Cambridge CB30BN UK

China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.

关键词： multi-regional input-output analysis trade flows sector-specific statistical model China

Embodied carbon emissions in China-US trade

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第11期63卷 1577-1586页

作者： Zhu LIU Jing MENG Zhu DENG Ping LU dabo guan Qiang ZHANG Kebin HE Peng GONG Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of Environment Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management University of College LondonLondon WC1E 7HBUK

China-US trade holds great significance for the world’s political and economic *** 2018,the US government has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese exports on the grounds of the US trade deficit with ***,the transfer of pollutants embodied in trade and the differences in environmental costs between China and the US have not been widely *** this study,we quantify the embodied carbon emissions(the"virtual"emissions associated with trade and consumption)in China-US trade by constructing a carbon dioxide emissions inventory and a multiregional input-output *** study shows that the US benefits from a trade surplus of environmental costs by importing energy-intensive and pollutionintensive products from China,which increases China’s environmental pollution and abatement *** 2017,288 Mt CO2 emissions were associated with products produced in China but finally consumed in the US,and only 46 Mt CO2 were associated with the US products that were consumed in *** this perspective,China-US trade results in a net transfer of 242 Mt CO2 per year from the US to China,accounting for approximately 5%of the total CO2 emissions in the *** importantly,for Chinese products exported to the US,the carbon emissions embodied in one unit of economic value amount to 0.92 kg/$(RMB:USD=6.8:1),but for US products exported to China,the carbon emissions embodied in one unit of economic value amount to 0.53 kg/$,which means China will incur environmental costs that are 74%higher than those of the US while enjoying the same economic *** environmental trade deficit has burdened China with higher environmental costs than economic *** address this environmental trade deficit,China should actively promote further industrial upgrading and energy structure adjustment and increase investment in innovation and R&D,thereby increasing the value added per unit of export products and reducing the environmental cost of producing export produc

关键词： Carbon emissions Embodied carbon emissions Emission transfer

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Five tips for China to realize its co-targets of climate mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)

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Geography and Sustainability 2020年第3期1卷 245-249页

作者： Chi Zhang Wenjia Cai Zhu Liu Yi-Ming Wei dabo guan Zheng Li Jinyue Yan Peng Gong School of Chemical Science and Engineering Royal Institute of TechnologyTeknikringen 42Stockholm SE-10044Sweden Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research&School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for Thermal Science and Power Engineering of the Ministry of Education Department of Energy and Power EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of Business Society and EngineeringMälardalen UniversityVästerås SE-72123Sweden

In 2018,a total of US$166 billion global economic losses and a new high of 55.3 Gt of CO_(2)equivalent emission were generated by 831 climate-related extreme *** the world’s largest CO_(2)emitter,we reported China’s recent progresses and pitfalls in climate actions to achieve climate mitigation targets(i.e.,limit warming to 1.5-2°C above the pre-industrial level).We first summarized China’s integrated actions(2015 onwards)that benefit both climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).These projects include re-structuring organizations,establishing working goals and actions,amending laws and regulations at national level,as well as increasing social awareness at community *** then pointed out the shortcomings in different regions and *** on these analyses,we proposed five recommendations to help China improving its climate policy strategies,which include:1)restructuring the economy to balance short-term and long-term conflicts;2)developing circular economy with recycling mechanism and infrastructure;3)building up unified national standards and more accurate indicators;4)completing market mechanism for green economy and encouraging green consumption;and 5)enhancing technology innovations and local incentives via bottom-up actions.

关键词： Climate change Sustainable Development Goals Climate policy China

MEIC-global-CO_(2):A new global CO_(2)emission inventory with highly-resolved source category and sub-country information

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 450-465页

作者： Ruochong XU Dan TONG Qingyang XIAO Xinying QIN Cuihong CHEN Liu YAN Jing CHENG Can CUI Hanwen HU Wenyu LIU Xizhe YAN Huaxuan WANG Xiaodong LIU guannan GENG Yu LEI dabo guan Kebin HE Qiang ZHANG Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning Beijing100041China Institute for Carbon Neutrality Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

CO_(2)emission inventory provides fundamental data for climate research and emission ***,most global CO_(2)emission inventories were developed with energy statistics from International Energy Agency(IEA)and were available at country level with limited source ***,as the first step toward a high-resolution and dynamic updated global CO_(2)emission database,we developed a data-driven approach to construct seamless and highly-resolved energy consumption data cubes for 208 countries/territories,797 sub-country administrative divisions in 29 countries,42 fuel types,and 52 sectors,with the fusion of activity data from 24 international statistics and 65 regional/local *** CO_(2)emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in 1970–2021 were then estimated with highly-resolved source category(1,484 of total)and sub-country information(797 of total).Specifically,73%of global CO_(2)emissions in 2021 were estimated with sub-country information,providing considerably improved spatial resolution for global CO_(2)emission *** the support of detailed information,the dynamics of global CO_(2)emissions across sectors and fuel types were presented,representing the evolution of global economy and progress of climate *** differences of sectoral contribution were found across sub-country administrative divisions within a given country,revealing the uneven distribution of energy and economic structure among different *** estimates were generally consistent with existing databases at aggregated level for global total or large emitters,while large discrepancies were observed for middle and small *** database,named the Multiresolution Emission Inventory model for Climate and air pollution research(MEIC)is publicly available through http://*** with highly-resolved information and timely update,which provides an independent carbon emission accounting data source for climate rese

关键词： CO_(2)emissions Data-driven approach Highly-resolved source category Sub-country information

City-level emission peak and drivers in China

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Science Bulletin 2022年第18期67卷 1910-1920,M0004页

作者： Yuli Shan Yuru guan Ye Hang Heran Zheng Yanxian Li dabo guan Jiashuo Li Ya Zhou Li Li Klaus Hubacek School of Geography Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of BirminghamBirmingham B152TTUK Integrated Research on Energy Environment and SocietyEnergy and Sustainability Research Institute GroningenUniversity of GroningenGroningen 9747 AGNetherlands College of Economics and Management&Research Centre for Soft Energy Science Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 211106China The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction University College LondonLondon WC1E 6BTUK Industrial Ecology Programme Norwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheim 7491Norway Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100871China Institute of Blue and Green Development Shandong UniversityWeihai 264209China Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development Ministry of EducationSchool of EcologyEnvironment and ResourcesGuangdong University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510006China School of Economics and Management China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China

China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon *** study provides the most comprehensive COemission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 *** emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement *** further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving *** results show that38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least fve years and another 21 cities also have emission decline,but *** 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by effciency improvements and structural changes in energy use,while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population *** propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline,and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation *** peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.

关键词： CO2 emissions Emission peak Drivers City Climate change

Vulnerability of London’s Economy to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Production Loss

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2013年第6期4卷 548-563页

作者： Douglas Crawford-Brown Mark Syddall dabo guan Jim Hall Jun Li Katie Jenkins Rachel Beaven Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research University of Cambridge Cambridge UK Cambridge Econometrics Cambridge UK Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Oxford UK School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK

A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The model is designed for linking to an Event Accounting Matrix (EAM) produced by climate and engineering teams, and then follow this damage through direct and indirect losses in the economy during a recovery process that is either demand-led (in which recovery of production capacity takes place only as demand recovers) or investment-led (where recovery of production capacity can precede demand). Outputs from the model are used to assess the relative vulnerability of London’s economy to production capacity (Capital stock) loss in each of the 42 economic sectors, for purposes of identifying where to most effectively allocate resources to climate change adaptation strategies or to recovery operations when used in conjunction with an EAM. Measures of impact related to GDP loss, recovery time and the ratio of indirect to direct losses are developed for these scenarios. Results show that indirect losses are a significant component of total losses, with a multiplier of between 1.3 and 2 depending on the scale of initial damage.

关键词： Climate Change Vulnerability Resilience Indirect Losses Economic Recovery