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A multi-model analysis of glacier equilibrium line altitudes in western China during the last glacial maximum

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第8期62卷 1241-1255页

作者： dabang jiang Yeyi LIU Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

Based on numerical experiments undertaken with nine climate models, the glacier equilibrium line altitudes(ELAs)in western China during the last glacial maximum(LGM) are investigated to deepen our understanding of the surface environment on the Tibetan Plateau. Relative to the preindustrial period, the summer surface air temperatures decrease by 4–8°C while the annual precipitation decreases by an average of 25% across the Tibetan Plateau during the LGM. Under the joint effects of reductions in summer temperature and annual precipitation, the LGM ELAs in western China are lowered by magnitudes that vary with regions. The ELAs in the southern margin and northwestern Tibetan Plateau decline by approximately 1100 m;the central hinterland, by 650–800 m;and the eastern part, by 550–800 m, with a downward trend from southwest to northeast. The reduction in ELAs is no more than 650 m in the Tian Shan Mountains within China and approximately 500–600 m in the Qilian Mountains and Altai Mountains. The high-resolution models to reproduce the low values of no more than 500 m in ELA reductions in the central Tibetan Plateau, which are consistent with the proxy records from glacier remains. The accumulation zones of the Tibetan Plateau glaciers are mainly located in the marginal mountains during the LGM and have areas 2–5 times larger than those of the modern glaciers but still do not reach the central part.

关键词： Last glacial maximum Western China Equilibrium line altitudes Glacier Simulation

Interannual Climate Variability Change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第4期34卷 497-508页

作者： Kaiqing YANG dabang jiang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3（Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3） to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation（CV） of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly（MCA） and the cold period of the Little Ice Age（LIA）. With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased（decreased） CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA（LIA）. The CV change ranges from-7.0% to 4.3%（from -6.3% to 5.4%）, with a global average of -0.5%（-0.07%） in the MCA（LIA）.Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.

关键词： interannual variability last millennium Medieval Climate Anomaly Little Ice Age

Synergistic Impacts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on Interdecadal Variations of Summer Rainfall in Northeast Asia

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第5期35卷 844-856页

作者： Dong SI dabang jiang Yihui DING Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the synergistic impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)and Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)on the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall in Northeast *** the construction of four probable scenarios under various combinations of the AMO and PDO phases,it is found that when the AMO and PDO are out of phase,both of them induce a strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon and a low or high pressure system over Northeast Asia through atmospheric teleconnection,which results in significant wet or dry conditions over the whole of Northeast Asia through the effects of *** contrast,when the AMO and PDO are in-phase,they induce moderate and regional wet or dry conditions in Northeast Asia,and only a slightly strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon through the effects of *** the mid-1960 s-1990 s,a period of drought first began in Northeast Asia under a negative AMO and negative PDO in the mid-1960 s,which then increased in severity under a negative AMO and positive PDO in the 1980 s,before finally coming to an end under a positive AMO and negative PDO in the late 1990 *** interdecadal predictability of summer rainfall in Northeast Asia may reside in the interdecadal behavior of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

关键词： Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Pacific decadal oscillation synergistic impacts Northeast Asia summer rainfall

Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang dabang jiang Xianmei Lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming *** with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection Global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 252-263页

作者： dabang jiang Dong SI Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data,this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(CESM-DPLE)*** results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation *** general,the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature,but less so for precipitation,on the interannual ***-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid-and highlatitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well,all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer,leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East ***,CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale,as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s,albeit with certain inadequacies *** CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

关键词： Community Earth System Model(CESM) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(DPLE) climate prediction East Asian summer climate decadal variation

Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 757-770页

作者： Xiaoxin WANG dabang jiang Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of lnformation Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4？C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4？C global warming will occur is *** on the median results of models that project a 4？C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5？C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

关键词： 4℃ global warming timing climate change signal-to-noise ratio uncertainty

Enhanced seasonality of surface air temperature over China during the mid-Holocene

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2023年第5期16卷 55-60页

作者： Zhiping Tian dabang jiang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,作者量化了中全新世(距今约6000年)中国温度季节性变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有16个模式一致模拟显示中全新世我国温度季节性(即夏季与冬季温差)增强,平均增幅9%;这与该时期轨道强迫引起的地表能量... 详细信息

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,作者量化了中全新世(距今约6000年)中国温度季节性变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有16个模式一致模拟显示中全新世我国温度季节性(即夏季与冬季温差)增强,平均增幅9%;这与该时期轨道强迫引起的地表能量通量的季节对比变化密切相关,其中净短波辐射起主导作用,净长波辐射作用次之,感热和潜热为负贡献;与模拟不同,重建结果存在不确定性。

关键词：中全新世温度季节性中国试验 PMIP4

Causes of Mid-Pliocene Strengthened Summer and Weakened Winter Monsoons over East Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 1016-1026页

作者： ZHANG Ran jiang dabang ZHANG Zhongshi Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Uni Research

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth＇s history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds （EASWs） strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds （EAWWs） weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 （Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping） palaeoenvironmental recon- struction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be ex- plained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have marked!y affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia.

关键词： mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon orographic change orbital parameters

Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第1期34卷 116-126页

作者： Huanlian LI Huijun WANG dabang jiang China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More （less） eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher （lower） than normal in the polar region and lower （higher） in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable （unfavorable） to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more （less）, the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower （higher） as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced （weakened）, favoring the lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China.

关键词： winter air temperature Northeast China Eurasian snow cover physical mechanism atmospheric circulationanomaly