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Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第4期39卷 576-590页

作者： Yingxian ZHANG Dong SI Yihui DING dabang jiang Qingquan LI Guofu WANG National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An unprecedented cold wave intruded into East Asia in early January 2021 and led to record-breaking or historical extreme low temperatures over vast regions.This study shows that a major stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)event at the beginning of January 2021 exerted an important influence on this cold wave.The major SSW event occurred on 2 January 2021 and subsequently led to the displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the East Asian side.Moreover,the SSW event induced the stratospheric warming signal to propagate downward to the mid-to-lower troposphere,which not only enhanced the blocking in the Urals-Siberia region and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation,but also shifted the tropospheric polar vortex off the pole.The displaced tropospheric polar vortex,Ural blocking,and another downstream blocking ridge over western North America formed a distinct inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern(IOCP)in the East Asia-North Pacific sector.This IOCP was the most direct and impactful atmospheric pattern causing the cold wave in East Asia.The IOCP triggered a meridional cell with an upward branch in East Asia and a downward branch in Siberia.The meridional cell intensified the Siberian high and low-level northerly winds,which also favored the invasion of the cold wave into East Asia.Hence,the SSW event and tropospheric circulations such as the IOCP,negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,Ural blocking,enhanced Siberian high,and eastward propagation of Rossby wave eventually induced the outbreak of an unprecedented cold wave in East Asia in early January 2021.

关键词： cold wave stratospheric sudden warming polar vortex Ural blocking Siberian high

Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang dabang jiang Xianmei Lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming magnitude.Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection Global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

A multi-model analysis of glacier equilibrium line altitudes in western China during the last glacial maximum

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第8期62卷 1241-1255页

作者： dabang jiang Yeyi LIU Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China

Based on numerical experiments undertaken with nine climate models, the glacier equilibrium line altitudes(ELAs)in western China during the last glacial maximum(LGM) are investigated to deepen our understanding of the surface environment on the Tibetan Plateau. Relative to the preindustrial period, the summer surface air temperatures decrease by 4–8°C while the annual precipitation decreases by an average of 25% across the Tibetan Plateau during the LGM. Under the joint effects of reductions in summer temperature and annual precipitation, the LGM ELAs in western China are lowered by magnitudes that vary with regions. The ELAs in the southern margin and northwestern Tibetan Plateau decline by approximately 1100 m;the central hinterland, by 650–800 m;and the eastern part, by 550–800 m, with a downward trend from southwest to northeast. The reduction in ELAs is no more than 650 m in the Tian Shan Mountains within China and approximately 500–600 m in the Qilian Mountains and Altai Mountains. The high-resolution models to reproduce the low values of no more than 500 m in ELA reductions in the central Tibetan Plateau, which are consistent with the proxy records from glacier remains. The accumulation zones of the Tibetan Plateau glaciers are mainly located in the marginal mountains during the LGM and have areas 2–5 times larger than those of the modern glaciers but still do not reach the central part.

关键词： Last glacial maximum Western China Equilibrium line altitudes Glacier Simulation

Interannual Climate Variability Change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第4期34卷 497-508页

作者： Kaiqing YANG dabang jiang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3（Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3） to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation（CV） of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly（MCA） and the cold period of the Little Ice Age（LIA）. With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased（decreased） CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA（LIA）. The CV change ranges from-7.0% to 4.3%（from -6.3% to 5.4%）, with a global average of -0.5%（-0.07%） in the MCA（LIA）.Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.

关键词： interannual variability last millennium Medieval Climate Anomaly Little Ice Age

Enhanced seasonality of surface air temperature over China during the mid-Holocene

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大气和海洋科学快报:英文版 2023年第5期16卷 55-60页

作者： Zhiping Tian dabang jiang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,作者量化了中全新世(距今约6000年)中国温度季节性变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有16个模式一致模拟显示中全新世我国温度季节性(即夏季与冬季温差)增强,平均增幅9%;这与该时期轨道强迫引起的地表能量... 详细信息

利用PMIP4多模式试验数据,作者量化了中全新世(距今约6000年)中国温度季节性变化.结果表明:相对于工业革命前期,所有16个模式一致模拟显示中全新世我国温度季节性(即夏季与冬季温差)增强,平均增幅9%;这与该时期轨道强迫引起的地表能量通量的季节对比变化密切相关,其中净短波辐射起主导作用,净长波辐射作用次之,感热和潜热为负贡献;与模拟不同,重建结果存在不确定性。

关键词：中全新世温度季节性中国试验 PMIP4

Synergistic Impacts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on Interdecadal Variations of Summer Rainfall in Northeast Asia

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第5期35卷 844-856页

作者： Dong SI dabang jiang Yihui DING Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the synergistic impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)and Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)on the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall in Northeast Asia.Following the construction of four probable scenarios under various combinations of the AMO and PDO phases,it is found that when the AMO and PDO are out of phase,both of them induce a strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon and a low or high pressure system over Northeast Asia through atmospheric teleconnection,which results in significant wet or dry conditions over the whole of Northeast Asia through the effects of superimposition.In contrast,when the AMO and PDO are in-phase,they induce moderate and regional wet or dry conditions in Northeast Asia,and only a slightly strong or weak East Asian summer monsoon through the effects of cancellation.During the mid-1960 s-1990 s,a period of drought first began in Northeast Asia under a negative AMO and negative PDO in the mid-1960 s,which then increased in severity under a negative AMO and positive PDO in the 1980 s,before finally coming to an end under a positive AMO and negative PDO in the late 1990 s.The interdecadal predictability of summer rainfall in Northeast Asia may reside in the interdecadal behavior of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

关键词： Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Pacific decadal oscillation synergistic impacts Northeast Asia summer rainfall

Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 252-263页

作者： dabang jiang Dong SI Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100029 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data,this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(CESM-DPLE)project.The results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation patterns.In general,the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature,but less so for precipitation,on the interannual timescale.CESM-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid-and highlatitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well,all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer,leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East Asia.Altogether,CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale,as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s,albeit with certain inadequacies remaining.The CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

关键词： Community Earth System Model(CESM) large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(DPLE) climate prediction East Asian summer climate decadal variation

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大西洋多年代际振荡对东亚气候影响的综述

大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 261-272页

作者：姜大膀司东缪家鹏中国科学院大气物理研究所北京100029

本文综述了近年来有关大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)及其对东亚气候影响的研究进展,主要包括AMO的形成机制与指数定义、AMO对东亚夏季和冬季气候的影响、AMO与其他大洋的协同作用。目前,关于AMO的形成机制仍有不同意见,传统观点认为AMO是气... 详细信息

本文综述了近年来有关大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)及其对东亚气候影响的研究进展,主要包括AMO的形成机制与指数定义、AMO对东亚夏季和冬季气候的影响、AMO与其他大洋的协同作用。目前,关于AMO的形成机制仍有不同意见,传统观点认为AMO是气候系统内部过程尤其是大西洋经向翻转流造成的,但近期有工作指出AMO是气溶胶、火山喷发等外强迫驱动产生或是海洋对大气随机强迫的一种响应。AMO可以通过三种途径调制东亚夏季气候,当AMO处于正位相时,东亚夏季风加强、降水增多、气温升高,反之亦然。同时,AMO正位相有利于东亚冬季风偏强,欧亚大陆中纬度及中国北方偏冷;负位相时则大体相反。鉴于AMO的重要作用,加深理解AMO形成机制及其对东亚气候影响有益于提升东亚气候的年代际预测水平。

关键词：大西洋多年代际振荡年代际气候变化东亚夏季风东亚冬季风

Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第7期35卷 757-770页

作者： Xiaoxin WANG dabang jiang Xianmei LANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of lnformation Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4？C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4？C global warming will occur is 2084.Based on the median results of models that project a 4？C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5？C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.

关键词： 4℃ global warming timing climate change signal-to-noise ratio uncertainty