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Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

Science china(Technological Sciences) 2010年第7期53卷 1949-1956页

作者： diao yanfang & wang bende school of faculty of infrastructure engineering, dalian university of technology, dalian 116024, china 1. school of faculty of infrastructure engineering Dalian University of Technology Dalian 116024 China

Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

关键词： flood control operation mode with forecast information risk analysis Monte Carlo simulation

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Scheme optimum selection for dynamic control of reservoir limited water level

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Science china(Technological Sciences) 2011年第10期54卷 2605-2610页

作者： diao yanfang wang bende College of Water Conservancy and Civil engineering Shandong Agricultural University Taian 271018 China faculty oflnfrastructure engineering Dalian University of Technology Dalian 116024 China

Dynamic control of reservoir limited water level is important to reservoir flood control operation.A reasonable limited water level can best utilize flood water resources in addition to flood *** paper is a trial application of the fuzzy information entropy matter-element evaluation method(FIEMEM) as an optimal selection of dynamic control of limited water *** this method,compound matter elements are established first,followed by establishment of an evaluation model and choice of the optimal scheme on the basis of fuzzy information *** determining weights,a combined weighting method in game theory is adopted to combine experiential weights and mathematical weights so as to eliminate one-sidedness of the single weighting ***,the feasibility of this optimization method is verified by citing dynamic control of Biliuhe reservoir limited water level as an example.

关键词： fuzzy information entropy matter-element evaluation method(FIEMEM) reservoir limited water level dynamic control mathematical weight

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