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An Innovative Bias-Correction Approach to CMA-GD Hourly Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 428-436页

作者： LIU Jin-qing dai guang-feng OU Xiao-feng Hunan Meteorological Observatory Changsha 410118 China guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510640 China Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Chengdu 610072 China Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction Changsha 410118 China

This paper proposes a simple and powerful optimal integration(OPI)method for improving hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts(QPFs,0-24 h)of a single-model by integrating the benefits of different biascorrected methods using the high-resolution CMA-GD model from the guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration(CMA).Three techniques are used to generate multi-method calibrated members for OPI:deep neural network(DNN),frequency-matching(FM),and optimal threat score(OTS).The results are as follows:(1)The QPF using DNN follows the basic physical patterns of *** providing superior improvements for clear-rainy and weak precipitation,DNN cannot improve the predictions for severe precipitation,while OTS can significantly strengthen these *** a result,DNN and OTS are the optimal members to be incorporated into OPI.(2)Our new approach achieves state-of-the-art performances on a single model for all magnitudes of *** with the CMA-GD,OPI improves the TS by 2.5%,5.4%,7.8%,8.3%,and 6.1%for QPFs from clear-rainy to rainstorms in the verification ***,OPI shows good stability in the test dataset.(3)It is also noted that the rainstorm pattern of OPI relies heavily on the original model and that OPI cannot correct for deviations in the location of severe ***,improvements in predicting severe precipitation using this method should be further realized by improving the numerical model's forecasting capability.

关键词： DNN deep-learning bias-correction post-processing OTS optimal integration NWP

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Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 319-329页

作者： CHEN Zi-tong dai guang-feng WU Kai-xin ZHONG Shui-xin XU Dao-sheng guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corrector method for semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)in model dynamical core,as well as the improvement of physical ***,the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developed and have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing *** experimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time *** batch test shows that the precipitation forecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km *** 1-km model is in operation with a rapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals,which can be applied to short-range forecasts and nowcasting.

关键词： numerical weather prediction reference atmosphere semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian rapidly updating cycle short-range forecast

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A Review on GRAPES-TMM Operational Model System at guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 495-504页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong XU Dao-sheng dai guang-feng MENG Wei-guang ZHANG Cheng-zhong ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin feng Ye-rong CHEN De-hui XUE Ji-shan guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China

This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

关键词： GRAPES-TMM TRAMS physical processes 9-3-1 forecasting system

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Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 406-417页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin ZHUANG Yan HU Sheng CHEN Zi-tong DING Wei-yu feng Ye-rong DENG Tao LIU Xian-tong ZHANG Yan-xia XU Dao-sheng dai guang-feng MENG Wei-guang guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430205 China

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were *** impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further *** results showed that the regional model system in the guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over *** maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan *** 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and *** comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and *** water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·*** north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south *** IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

关键词： extreme rainfall CMA-GD IVT double-eyes distribution

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GRAPES模式中地面通量在一次台风数值模拟中的敏感性试验研究

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热带气象学报 2013年第3期29卷 403-410页

作者：戴光丰陈子通中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/区域数值天气预报重点实验室广东广州510080

在中尺度天气数值预报模式(GRAPES)的边界层方案(MRF)中,地面通量的计算与模式分层有直接关系,可能引起计算结果的不准确。在模式中引入Beljaars方案,通过比较分析模拟的台风地表特征量及形势场和风场表明,引入的方案对台风强度和路径... 详细信息

在中尺度天气数值预报模式(GRAPES)的边界层方案(MRF)中,地面通量的计算与模式分层有直接关系,可能引起计算结果的不准确。在模式中引入Beljaars方案,通过比较分析模拟的台风地表特征量及形势场和风场表明,引入的方案对台风强度和路径的预报效果都起到改善作用。对台风"巨爵"个例的模拟表明,引入Beljaars方案之后,其地表的潜热、感热通量均明显增强,摩擦速度最大值增大,说明地表向上传输的热通量、水汽通量、动量通量均增强,这都有利于台风的发展和加强,因此模拟的台风路径和强度也更接近实况;从台风结构来看,方案二模拟的台风倾斜垂直结构没有方案一的明显,暖心结构有所加强;从风场分析来看,台风眼区的风速低值中心可延伸到500 hPa的高度上,明显高于方案一。

关键词：应用气象学台风边界层方案地面通量数值模拟

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Forecast Performance of the Pre-operational CMA-TRAMS(EPS)in South China During April-September 2020

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第2期29卷 236-251页

作者：时洋张旭斌戴光丰杨兆礼涂静陈子通 guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective *** with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation *** addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched *** with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of ***,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS(EPS) mesoscale ensemble forecasting verification south China warm-sector rainfall

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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华南沿海一次暴雨中尺度对流系统的形成和发展过程

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热带气象学报 2007年第6期23卷 521-530页

作者：蒙伟光张艳霞戴光丰闫敬华中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广东广州510080

应用观测分析和数值模拟方法研究了2004年5月13～14日发生在华南西部沿海的一次暴雨中尺度对流系统(MCS)。结果发现:MCS开始发生在低层切变线南侧的偏南气流中,强盛时其水平范围达中α尺度,生命史近10个小时。在MCS的形成和发展过程中,... 详细信息

应用观测分析和数值模拟方法研究了2004年5月13～14日发生在华南西部沿海的一次暴雨中尺度对流系统(MCS)。结果发现:MCS开始发生在低层切变线南侧的偏南气流中,强盛时其水平范围达中α尺度,生命史近10个小时。在MCS的形成和发展过程中,低层的涡旋环流不明显,但其上空对流层中层500 hPa上有流场的扰动与之对应。观测分析及数值模拟结果均表明沿海地形引起的辐合在对流的启动中有重要的影响,而对流发展起来后,由于凝结加热的作用,中层的扰动得到加强和发展,主要表现为涡度的增大,气旋性环流在500 hPa高度附近表现最为明显,并在MCS东移发展的过程中起着重要的组织作用。MCS在有利地形触发作用下发生,并通过对流层中层扰动组织发展的过程,有别于华南其它一些暴雨过程常伴有低层涡旋系统向上发展的形式,有其独特的特征。还对中层扰动的增强过程和物理机制进行了分析,并提出了一个用于解释中层扰动对MCS组织发展影响的观点。

关键词：地形辐合中层扰动中尺度对流系统(MCS) 数值模拟

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城市冠层模式在GRAPES模式中的应用

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热带气象学报 2016年第3期32卷 311-321页

作者：张艳霞蒙伟光戴光丰蒋德海姚帅中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室广东广州510080

在GRAPES中尺度模式中耦合了城市冠层模式(Urban Canopy Model,简写为UCM),并选择珠江三角洲(简称"珠三角")地区2011年7月10日夜间强降水过程和2012年8月19日的高温个例,考察了GRAPES中尺度模式与城市冠层模式耦合在珠三角地区的模拟效... 详细信息

在GRAPES中尺度模式中耦合了城市冠层模式(Urban Canopy Model,简写为UCM),并选择珠江三角洲(简称"珠三角")地区2011年7月10日夜间强降水过程和2012年8月19日的高温个例,考察了GRAPES中尺度模式与城市冠层模式耦合在珠三角地区的模拟效果,分别设置了两组试验,在GRAPES模式中耦合和未耦合城市冠层模式(UCM和noUCM)。结果发现,UCM对强降水中心和降水落区的模拟都较noUCM有明显的改善,从降水的四个评估指数(命中率、反命中率、威胁指数及偏差)也可以看出,UCM的结果较noUCM有了较明显的提高,尤其是命中率和威胁指数;对2 m高度的温度和地表热通量而言,两组试验的日间温度和热通量差异较大,中心城区UCM模拟的温度较noUCM高2~4℃,最大差值达5~6℃,热通量差异基本在150 W/m^2,而在夜间,两组试验模拟的温度和热通量差异减小,温度差值基本在0.5~1.0℃之内,热通量差异一般在10 W/m^2左右。两组试验对降水模拟差异的主要原因是UCM模拟出了降水前期地面强的辐合区及相应的温度高值区,对流层低层较大范围的垂直上升运动和辐合上升,对流层中层的暖湿中心及地面较大的CAPE值(达2 000~3 000 J/kg),而noUCM的模拟偏弱或是未能模拟出来。从另外高温个例观测与模式模拟的对比结果来看,UCM模拟的近地面气温、风速、感热通量、向下短波辐射通量和向上长波辐射通量与观测的误差减小,但感热通量与向下短波辐射通量与观测存在一定差距。

关键词： GRAPES模式城市冠层模式耦合数值模拟城市效应

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台风“凡亚比”登陆过程中暴雨MCSs演变及形成机理

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热带气象学报 2015年第4期31卷 433-443页

作者：张艳霞蒙伟光戴光丰李春晖中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室广东广州510080

利用大尺度和TBB资料得出1011号台风“凡亚比”环流背景中出现连续性暴雨的大尺度环境概况和主要MCSs活动情况，发现高低空辐散辐合配置的动力结构及强烈的垂直上升运动和丰富的水汽，为暴雨的发生和持续提供了有利的动力和水汽条件；... 详细信息

利用大尺度和TBB资料得出1011号台风“凡亚比”环流背景中出现连续性暴雨的大尺度环境概况和主要MCSs活动情况，发现高低空辐散辐合配置的动力结构及强烈的垂直上升运动和丰富的水汽，为暴雨的发生和持续提供了有利的动力和水汽条件；连续性暴雨过程中主要有三个MCSs活动，其中9月20—21日的MCSs持续时间最长、强度最大、暴雨最强。因此，通过观测资料讨论了该MCSs发展演变的特征及基于大尺度资料和中尺度数值模拟结果探讨了其发展演变的机制。结果发现，该MCSs形成、发展、成熟至减弱阶段都处在台风的外围环流中，其中心位于台风移动方向约300～350km处的左前方；从大尺度资料的分析可见，上升运动加强，水汽输送充足，垂直风切变明显增大，不稳定能量的稳定累积及中低层西侧干冷空气的侵入有利于MCSs组织发展。进一步从中尺度数值模拟结果发现，MCSs东、西及北侧的温湿梯度相向发展形成的能量锋区为MCSs的组织发展提供了环境条件和能量，该能量锋区形成于东西两侧温度和湿度梯度的差异，东侧受热带低压登陆降水引起降温增湿，而西侧和北侧受台风外围偏西气流和青藏高原热源共同作用增温减湿。此外，西侧中层干冷空气的侵入也有利于该锋区的存在和维持，更有利于MCSs的发展。正涡度的增长和0～6km垂直风切变大值区的配合，为MCSs的形成发展提供了有利的动力条件。

关键词：台风环流连续性暴雨 MCSs 数值模拟机理

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