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Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第11期36卷 51-60页

作者： sui cuijuan ZHANG Zhanhai YU Lejiang LI Yi SONG Mirong College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center State Oceanic Administration Beijing 100081 China Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200129 China Key Laboratory for Polar Science Polar Research Institute of China State Oceanic Administration Shanghai 200136 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979–2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights（rate of –0.2 to –0.3 d/a） and an increasing trend of warm days and nights（rate of ＋0.2 to ＋0.3 d/a） in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases,which contributes to the increasing（decreasing） occurrence of warm（cold） days and nights. On the other hand,the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO（Arctic Oscillation） index leads to an increased（decreased） number of warm（cold） days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased（decreased） number of cold（warm） days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and *** occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature.

关键词： extreme temperature events trend analysis abrupt change analysis composite analysis

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Antarctic surface air temperature during 1900 to 2015

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 48-58页

作者： cuijuan sui Lejiang Yu Alexey YuKarpechko Licheng Feng Shan Liu Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for Polar Science Polar Research Institute of ChinaMinistry of Natural ResourcesShanghai 200136China Finnish Meteorological Institute HelsinkiFI-00101Finland

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been ***,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in *** study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 ***+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO *** Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO ***,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming *** most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the *** wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT ***,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial *** the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.

关键词： Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO) surface air temperature Antarctic wavetrain Rossby wave source

Sensitivity and nonlinearity of Eurasian winter temperature response to recent Arctic sea ice loss

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第8期36卷 52-58页

作者： sui cuijuan ZHANG Zhanhai YU Lejiang LI Yi SONG Mirong College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200129China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The recent decline in the Arctic sea ice has coincided with more cold winters in Eurasia. It has been hypothesized that the Arctic sea ice loss is causing more mid-latitude cold extremes and cold winters, yet there is lack of consensus in modeling studies on the impact of Arctic sea ice loss. Here we conducted modeling experiments with Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 （CAM5） to investigate the sensitivity and linearity of Eurasian winter temperature response to the Atlantic sector and Pacific sector of the Arctic sea ice loss. Our experiments indicate that the Arctic sea ice reduction can significantly affect the atmospheric circulation by strengthening the Siberian High, exciting the stationary Rossby wave train, and weakening the polar jet stream, which in turn induce the cooling in Eurasia. The temperature decreases by more than I^C in response to the ice loss in the Atlantic sector and the cooling is less and more shifts southward in response to the ice loss in the Pacific sector. More interestingly, sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors together barely induces cold temperatures in Eurasia, suggesting the nonlinearity of the atmospheric response to the Arctic sea ice loss.

关键词： cold winter CAM5 sensitivity experiment jet stream

Differences in spring precipitation over southern China associated with multiyear La Ni?a events

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第2期43卷 1-10页

作者： Guangliang Li Licheng Feng Wei Zhuang Fei Liu Ronghua Zhang cuijuan sui National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and *** in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.

关键词： multiyear La Nina precipitation anomaly anomalous western North Pacific cyclone southern China

Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2014年第12期33卷 15-23页

作者： YANG Qinghua LIU Jiping ZHANG Zhanhai sui cuijuan XING Jianyong LI Ming LI Chunhua ZHAO Jiechen ZHANG Lin Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory for Polar Science of State Oceanic Administration Polar Research Institute of China

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model （MIT-gcm） is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China （NMEFC）, and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System （NCEP GFS） is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model （Polar WRF） model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions：（1） the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder （SSMIS） and （2） the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS （AMSR-E）. Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.

关键词： Arctic Ocean seaice concentration forecast

Trends of summertime extreme temperatures in the Arctic

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Advances in Polar Science 2018年第3期29卷 205-214页

作者： sui cuijuan YU Lejiang National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200136 China SOA Key Laboratory for Polar Science Shanghai 200136 China

Extreme temperature events can influence the natural environment and societal activities more so than mean temperature events. This study used daily data from 238 stations north of 60°N, obtained from the Global Summary of the Day dataset for the period 1979~015, to investigate the trends of summertime extreme temperature. The results revealed most stations north of 60°N with trends of decrease in the number of cold days （nights） and increase in the number of warm clays （nights）. The regional average results showed trends of consistent decline （rise） of cold days and nights （warm days and nights） in Eurasia and Greenland. Similarly, the trends of the seasonal maximum and minimum values were most significant in these regions. In summer, of three indices considered （i.e., Arctic Oscillation, Arctic dipole, and E1 Nifi^Southem Oscillation）, the largest contributor to the trends of extreme temperature events was the Arctic dipole. Prevailing southerly winds in summer brought warm moist air across northern Eurasia and Greenland, conducive to increased numbers of warm days （nights） and decreased numbers of cold day （nights）. Moreover, we defined extreme events using different thresholds and found the spatial distributions of the trends were similar.

关键词： extreme temperature events north of 60°N trend analysis abrupt change analysis composite analysis

Using the physical decomposition method to study the effects of Arctic factors on wintertime temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and China

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Advances in Polar Science 2014年第4期25卷 213-221页

作者： sui cuijuan ZHANG Zhanhai CAI Yi WU Huiding National Marine Environment Forecasting Center College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China Department of Strategic Planning and Economic Development SOA

The physical decomposition method separates atmospheric variables into four parts, correlating each with solar radiation, land-sea distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal internal forcing, strengthening the anomaly signal and increasing the correlation between variables. This method was applied to the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）, to study the effects of Arctic factors （Arctic oscillation （AO） and Arctic polar vortex） on wintertime temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and China. It was fotmd that AO effects on zonal average temperature disturbance could persist for 1 month. In the AO negative phase in wintertime, the temperatures are lower in the mid-high latitudes than in normal years, but higher in low latitudes. When the polar vortex area is bigger, the zonal average temperature is lower at 50N. Influenced mainly by meridional circulation enhancement, cold air flows from high to low latitudes; thus, the temperatures in Continental Europe and the North American continent exhibit an antiphase seesaw relationship. When the AO is in negative phase and the Arctic polar vortex larger, the temperature is lower in Siberia, but higher in Greenland and the Bering Strait. Influenced by westerly troughs and ridges, the polar air disperses mainly along the tracks of atmospheric activity centers. The AO index can be considered a predictor of wintertime temperature in China. When the AO is in negative phase or the Asian polar vortex is intensified, temperatures in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are lower, because under the influence of the Siberia High and northeast cold vortex, the cold air flows southwards.

关键词： Physical decomposition AO index polar vortex intensity index polar vortex area index

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上层土壤厚度对模拟指流水分运动的影响

农业工程学报 2011年第10期27卷 169-173页

作者：吴叔赢张建丰高瑞杨潇李涛宋丽玲隋翠娟西安理工大学水资源研究所西安710048

"上细下粗"的层状土壤中有可能产生指流,在有指流产生条件下,上层土壤的厚度是影响指流发展特征的主要因素之一。该试验通过在下层砂中模拟指流来研究上层土壤厚度对层状土壤中水分运动的影响。结果表明:指流域内的湿润锋到达一定深度... 详细信息

"上细下粗"的层状土壤中有可能产生指流,在有指流产生条件下,上层土壤的厚度是影响指流发展特征的主要因素之一。该试验通过在下层砂中模拟指流来研究上层土壤厚度对层状土壤中水分运动的影响。结果表明:指流域内的湿润锋到达一定深度的时间随着上层土壤厚度的增大而增加;稳定入渗率随着上层土壤厚度的增大而减小;并得出稳渗率和上层土的厚度呈线性关系;分别用经验函数模型和连续函数模型来模拟层状结构土壤水分的入渗,发现2种模型有各自的优缺点:经验函数模型虽然计算得到的整体误差较小,但在理论上不能很好的解释层状土壤水分入渗过程;连续函数模型相比较经验函数模型的缺点在试验初期误差较大,但该模型属于连续函数模型,符合实际的层状水分入渗过程。

关键词：土壤入渗模型模拟指流

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北极海气界面过程数值模拟的敏感性试验研究

极地研究 2013年第3期25卷 234-240页

作者：李响吴辉碇杨清华隋翠娟李琰国家海洋信息中心天津300171 国家海洋环境预报中心北京100081

采用Colorado州立大学ARCSCM(Arctic Single-Column Model)极地柱模式,对北极表面能量平衡和低层大气结构进行模拟试验,并将模拟结果与SHEBA资料进行对比分析。对模式中的云物理过程参数化以及辐射参数化方案进行了敏感性分析,研究不同... 详细信息

采用Colorado州立大学ARCSCM(Arctic Single-Column Model)极地柱模式,对北极表面能量平衡和低层大气结构进行模拟试验,并将模拟结果与SHEBA资料进行对比分析。对模式中的云物理过程参数化以及辐射参数化方案进行了敏感性分析,研究不同的参数化方案对北极地区海气界面过程数值模拟的影响。研究结果表明,ARCSCM模式能够模拟北极表面辐射与能量平衡的物理过程,而对于不同的参数化方案其模拟的结果有很大的差异。

关键词：海气界面过程 ARCSCM 模式敏感性试验北极地区