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Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases

Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 699-713页

作者： Anderson Castro Soares de Oliveira Lia Hanna Martins Morita Eveliny Barroso da Silva Luiz Andre Ribeiro Zardo cor jesus fernandes fontes Daniele Cristina Tita Granzotto Departamento de Estatística Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso-UFMTCEP:78060-900CuiabaMTBrazil Departamento de Estatística Universidade Estadual de Maringa-UEMCEP:87020-900MaringaPRBrazil Faculdade de Medicina Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso-UFMTCEP:78060-900CuiabaMTBrazil

The novel of COVID-19 disease started in late 2019 making the worldwide governments came across a high number of critical and death cases,beyond constant fear of the collapse in their health *** the beginning of the pandemic,researchers and authorities are mainly concerned with carrying out quantitative studies(modeling and predictions)overcoming the scarcity of tests that lead us to under-reporting *** address these issues,we introduce a Bayesian approach to the SIR model with correction for underreporting in the analysis of COVID-19 cases in *** proposed model was enforced to obtain estimates of important quantities such as the reproductive rate and the average infection period,along with the more likely date when the pandemic peak may *** under-reporting scenarios were considered in the simulation study,showing how impacting is the lack of information in the modeling.

关键词： COVID-19 Under-reporting SIR model Bayesian aproach

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Prospective application of a bleeding and ischemic risks-adjusted antithrombotic protocol in elderly patients revascularized with everolimus-eluting stents:EPIC05-Sierra75 study

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2022年第5期19卷 354-366页

作者： Jose M de la Torre Hernandez Ramon Lopez Palop jesus M Jimenez Mazuecos Pilar Carrillo Sáez Alejandro Gutierez-Barrios Eduardo Pinar Belen Cid Luis Fernandez Tamara Garcia Camarero Cristóbal Urbano-Carrillo Juan F Oteo Dominguez Victor A Jimenez Diaz Antonio EGomez Menchero Eladio Galindo Fernández Juan GCórdoba Soriano Raymundo Ocaranza Eduardo ArroyoÚcar Koldobika Garcia San Roman Silvio Leal Ginés Martínez Cáceres Jose A Linares Vicente Georgina Fuertes Ferre Xavier Carrillo Juan CRama Merchán Catia Costa Juan Sanchis Renato fernandes Alberto Rodrigues Jose M Vegas Valle Hélder Pereira Armando Perez de Prado Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario Marqués de ValdecillaIDIVALSantanderSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario San JuanAlicanteSpain Cardiology Department Complejo Hospitalario Universitario de AlbaceteAlbaceteSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario Puerta del MarCadizSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Clínico Universitario Virgen de la ArrixacaMurciaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Clinico Universitario de SantiagoCIBERCVSantiago de CompostelaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario de CrucesBilbaoSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Regional Universitario de MálagaMalagaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario Puerta de HierroMadridSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Alvaro CunqueiroVigoSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Juan Ramon JimenezHuelvaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario de BadajozBadajozSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario Lucus AugustiLugoSpain Cardiology Department Hospital de Torrevieja/VinalopóRibera SaludTorreviejaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Santa CruzLisboaPortugal Cardiology Department Hospital Clínico Universitario Lozano BlesaZaragozaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Universitario Miguel ServetZaragozaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Germans Trias i PujolBadalonaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital de MeridaMeridaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital São BernardoSetúbalPortugal Cardiology Department Hospital Clinico Universitario de ValenciaUniversidad de ValenciaCIBERCVValenciaSpain Cardiology Department Hospital do Espirito SantoEvoraPortugal Cardiology Department Centro Hospitalar de Vilanova de GaiaVilanova de GaiaPortugal Cardiology Department Hospital de CabueñesGijonSpain Cardiology Department Hospital Garcia de OrtaAlmadaPortugal Cardiology Department Complejo Asistencial Universitario de LeónLeonSpain

OBJECTIVES Elderly patients show a higher incidence of ischemic and bleeding events after percutaneous transluminal coron-ary intervention(PCI).We sought to investigate outcomes in elderly patients treated with antithrombotic strategy guided by bleeding and ischemic risks after revascularization with last generation everolimus-eluting stent(EES).METHODS Prospective multicenter registry including patients over 75 years revascularized with EES and antithrombotic ther-apy guided by clinical presentation,PCI complexity and PRECISE DAPT ***-primary safety endpoints were:(1)composite of cardiac death,myocardial infarction and stent thrombosis and;(2)bleeding(BARC 2-5).Primary efficacy endpoint was target lesion revascularization.A matched group of patients revascularized with current drug-eluting stents and no such tailored antith-rombotic therapy was used as *** Finally,1064 patients were included in SIERRA-75 cohort,80.8±4.2 years,36.6%women,71%acute coronary syn-dromes(ACS)and 53.6%complex ***-primary safety endpoint of major adverse cardiovascular events was met in 6.2%,co-primary safety endpoint of bleeding in 7.8%and primary efficacy endpoint of TKLR in 1.5%.The multivariable adjusted model showed no significant association of the prescribed short/long dual antiplatelet therapy(DAPT)durations with any endpoint suggesting a well tailored *** stent thrombosis reported in the subgroup with 1-3 months DAPT *** compared to control group,bleeding BARC 2-5 was significantly lower in SIERRA-75 group(7.4%vs.10.2%,P=0.04)as well as the net safety-efficacy endpoint(14.3%vs.18.5%,P=0.02).CONCLUSIONS In elderly population,the application of this risks-adjusted antithrombotic protocol after revascularization with last generation EES seems to be associated with an improved prognosis in terms of ischemic and bleeding outcomes.

关键词： patients bleeding antithrombotic

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