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Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第5期50卷 776-788页

作者： MA ZhuGuo fu congbin Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

关键词： global dry-wet variation drying trend large-scale background interdecadal variation correlation

Projection of global mean surface air temperature changes in next 40 years: Uncertainties of climate models and an alternative approach

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第9期54卷 1400-1406页

作者： fu congbin QIAN Cheng WU ZhaoHua Institute for Climate and Global Change Research School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science & Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Florida State University Tallahassee F132308 USA

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate projection using climate models that took account of both human and natural factors provided credible quantitative estimates of future climate change; however, the mismatches between the IPCC AR4 model ensembles and the observations, especially the multi-decadal variability (MDV), have cast shadows on the confidence of the model-based decadal projections of future cli mate. This paper reports an evaluation of many individual runs of AR4 models in the simulation of past global mean tempera ture. We find that most of the individual model runs fail to reproduce the MDV of past climate, which may have led to the overestimation of the projection of global warming for the next 40 years or so. Based on such an evaluation, we propose an al ternative approach, in which the MDV signal is taken into account, to project the global mean temperature for the next 40 years and obtain that the global warming during 2011–2050 could be much smaller than the AR4 projection.

关键词： decadal prediction global warming multi-decadal climate variability the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition CMIP3 multi-model

Monsoon regions: the highest rate of precipitation changesobserved from global data

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 662-666页

作者： congbin fu Zhaomei Zheng Chinese Acad Sci Ctr Global Change Res Temperate E Asia Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

The global distributions of the rate of precipitation change at seasonal, interannual and interdecadal scales are computed from the observed global data sets. The analysis has revealed that the monsoon regions in Asia and West Africa, and to lesser extent Australia, have the highest rate of precipitation change at all time scales in the world. These changes are manifested as seasonal jump, high interannual and interdecadal variability and abrupt changes between climate regimes.

关键词： rate of climatic change precipitation monsoon region.

An virtual numerical experiment to understand the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the summer climate and environmental conditions in East Asia

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第14期46卷 1199-1203,1235页

作者： congbin fu Huiling Yuan Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys START Reg Ctr Temperate E Asia Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

By applying a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS), a virtual numerical experiment is implemented to study the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the regional climate and environmental conditions. The results show that recovering the natural vegetation in large scale could have significant influence on summer climate in East Asia. Not only would it be able to change the surface climate, but also to modify to certain extent the intensity of monsoon circulation. Although this is a virtual experiment at an extremely ideal condition, the implication of the simulating results is that the on-going nation-wide activities to recover the crop land for forest and pasture must be managed according to the local natural climate, hydrological and soil conditions. Only under such a condition, would the recovering of natural vegetation bring about significant climate and environmental benefits at regional scale.

关键词： vegetation change East Asian monsoon regional climate simulation virtual experiment.

A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

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Science China Earth Sciences 2009年第6期52卷 843-854页

作者： ZhongFeng Xu congbin fu Yongfu Qian Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 C

We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential temperature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and... 详细信息

关键词： tropical Asian summer monsoon monsoon index intraseasonal variability interannual variability

Performance of Convective Parameterization Schemes in Asia Using RegCM:Simulations in Three Typical Regions for the Period 1998–2002

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第5期32卷 715-730页

作者： Shaukat ALI DAN Li fu congbin YANG Yang START Temperate East Asia Regional Center and Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Global Change Impact Studies Centre Ministry of Climate Change

This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean（ELGO） scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS（Grell/Emanuel） over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain（3H） and Tibetan Plateau（TP） regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d^-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan（NP）. In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.

关键词： regional climate models(RCM) Reg CM4 Tiedtke scheme convective parameterization scheme(CPS) topography seasonality

Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate multi-year precipitation and air temperature in China

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第17期54卷 3101-3111页

作者： ZHAO DeMing fu congbin YAN XiaoDong Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing 100029 China

RIEMS2.0 (Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System, Version 2.0) is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and its changes, as well as provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation and air temperature from 1980 to 2007 (simulation duration from Jan. 1, 1979 to Dec. 31, 2007) under different cumulus parameterization schemes with the observed data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation and air temperature, but that the model overestimates precipitation with the rainfall center moving northwestward and underestimates air temperature for annual simulations. Annual and interannual variations in precipitation and air temperature for different climate subregions are well captured by the model. further analysis of summer and winter simulations shows that precipitation is overestimated, except for the Jianghuai-Jiangnan subregions in the winter, and the air temperature bias in the summer is weaker than in the winter. There are larger biases for precipitation and air temperature in semiarid subregions. Anomalies in precipitation and air temperature are also well captured by the model. Although a similar distribution can be found between observed data and simulated results under different cumulus parameterization schemes, these show differences in intensity and location. In sum, RIEMS2.0 shows good stability and does well in simulating the long-term climate and its changes in China.

关键词：空气温度年降水量中国模拟能力检验

Simulation of the direct effects of dust aerosol on climate in East Asia

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Particuology 2010年第4期8卷 301-307页

作者： Jian Wu congbin fu Zhiwei Han Jianping Tang Yanyan XU Renjian Zhang Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SdencesBeijing 100029 China Department of Atmaspheric Science Nanfing University Nanfing 210093 China Yunnan Meteorological Bureau Kunming 650031 China

The results from some general circulation models show distinct radiative forcing （RF） by dust aerosol, which potentially has an effect on climate change. The direct RF and regional climatic effects of dust aerosol over the East Asian region are investigated in this study using NCAR＇s Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1. The negative RF at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） and the surface （SRF） has been revealed except for some high-albedo regions, which leads to a decrease in the surface air temperature and brings an increase of atmospheric radiative heating under both clear- and all-sky conditions. The decrease in the surface air temperature can be found over a wide region that includes the Indian peninsula and northwest China. It accompanies an increase in eastern China and the Korean peninsula, and temperature changes are not limited to regions with a large dust optical depth. A belt of vapor increase is revealed from the Indian peninsula extending east to northern China, while vapor content evidently deceases in southwest China. An increase in precipitation can also be found in the belt of increased vapor accompanying the reduction of precipitation across the regions to the south of 30~N. The pattern of rainfall change helps to offset the trend of increasing wetness in the south and increasing dryness in the north of China in recent years.

关键词： Dust Radiative forcing Temperature Precipitation East Asia

Global and Regional Impacts of Vegetation on the Hydrological Cycle and Energy Budget as Represented by the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第2期2卷 85-90页

作者： XU Zhongfeng ZENG Gang fu congbin RCE-TEA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology Nanjing 210044 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China

The effects of vegetation and its seasonal variation on energy and the hydrological cycle were examined using a state-of-the-art Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3）. Three 15-year numerical experiments were completed： the first with realistic vegetation characteristics varying monthly （VEG run）, the second without vegetation over land （NOVEG run）, and the third with the vegetation characteristics held at their annual mean values （VEGMEAN run）. In these models, the hydrological cycle and land surface energy budget were widely affected by vegetation. Globaland annual-mean evapotranspiration significantly increased compared with the NOVEG by 11.8% in the VEG run run, while runoff decreased by 13.2% when the realistic vegetation is incorporated. Vegetation plays different roles in different regions. In tropical Asia, vegetation-induced cooling of the land surface plays a crucial role in decreasing tropical precipitation. In middle latitudes and the Amazon region, however, the vegetation-induced increase of evapotranspiration plays a more important role in increasing precipitation. The seasonal variation of vegetation also shows clear influences on the hydrological cycle and energy budget. In the boreal mid-high latitudes where vegetation shows a strong seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration and precipitation are higher in the summer in the VEG run than in the VEGMEAN run.

关键词： vegetation seasonal variation hydrological cycle energy budget regional climate