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Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第4期3卷 353-365页

作者： Wanderson Luiz Silva claudine dereczynski Sin Chan Chou Iracema Cavalcanti Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research National Institute of Space Research Paulista Brazil

In this study, we document the air temperature and precipitation changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the period 2041-2070 in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) by means of Eta driven by HadCM3 climate model output, considering the variation among its four ensemble members. The main purpose is to support studies of vulnerability and adaptation policy to climate change. In relation to future projections of temperature extremes, the model indicates an increase in average minimum (maximum) temperature of between +1.1°C and +1.4°C (+1.0°C and +1.5°C) in the state by 2070, and it could reach maximum values of between +2.0°C and +3.5°C (+2.5°C and +4.5°C). The model projections also indicate that cold nights and days will be much less frequent in Rio de Janeiro by 2070, while there will be significant increases in warm nights and days. With respect to annual total rainfall, the Northern Region of Rio de Janeiro displays the greatest variation among members, indicating changes ranging from a decrease of -350 mm to an increase of +300 mm during the 21st century. The southern portion of the state has the largest increase in annual total rainfall occurring due to heavy rains, ranging from +50 to +300 mm in the period 2041-2070. Consecutive dry days will increase, which indicates poorly time distributed rainfall, with increased rainfall concentrated over shorter time periods.

关键词： Climate Change Climatic Extremes Future Projections Temperature Precipitation Rio de Janeiro

Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第3期3卷 326-337页

作者： Manyu Chang claudine dereczynski Marcos A. V. Freitas Sin Chan Chou International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG) COPPE-UFRJ Rio de Janeiro Brazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research National Institute of Space Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil

A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.

关键词： Climate Extremes Index Climate Change

Towards a Link between Climate Extremes and Thermodynamic Patterns in the City of Rio de Janeiro-Brazil: Climatological Aspects and Identified Changes

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第8期11卷 131-160页

作者： Wanderson Luiz-Silva Fabricio Polifke da Silva claudine Pereira dereczynski José Ricardo de Almeida França Department of Meteorology Institute of Geosciences Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil

Modification signs in extreme weather events may be directly related to alterations in the thermodynamic panorama of the atmosphere that need to be better understood. This study aimed to make a first interconnection between climate extremes and thermodynamic patterns in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation extreme indices from two surface meteorological stations (ABOV and STCZ) and instability indices based on temperature and humidity from radiosonde observations (SBGL) were employed to investigate changes in the periods 1964-1980 (P1), 1981-2000 (P2), and 2001-2020 (P3). Statistical tests were adopted to determine the significance and magnitude of trends. The frequency of warm (cold) days and warm (cold) nights are increasing (decreasing) in the city. Cold (Warm) extremes are changing with greater magnitude in ABOV (STCZ) than in STCZ (ABOV). In ABOV, there is a significant increase of +84 mm/decade in the rainfall volume associated with severe precipitation (above the 95th percentile) and most extreme precipitation indices show an increase in frequency and intensity. In STCZ, there is a decrease in extreme precipitation until the 1990s, and from there, an increase, showing a wetter climate in the most recent years. It is also verified in SBGL that there is a statistically significant increase (decrease) in air temperature of +0.1°C/decade (-0.2°C/decade) and relative humidity of +1.2%/decade (-3%/decade) at the low and middle (high) troposphere. There is a visible rising trend in most of the evaluated instability indices over the last few decades. The increasing trends of some extreme precipitation indices are probably allied to the precipitable water increasing trend of +1.2 mm/decade.

关键词： Climate Change Climatology Instability Indices Precipitation Extremes Temperature Extremes

Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 512-527页

作者： Sin Chan Chou Andre Lyra Caroline Mourao claudine dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante Priscila Tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Jose Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Warning Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil

Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.

关键词： South America Climate Downscaling Climate Change Assessment Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

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American Journal of Climate Change 2014年第5期3卷 438-454页

作者： Sin Chan Chou André Lyra Caroline Mourao claudine dereczynski Isabel Pilotto Jorge Gomes Josiane Bustamante Priscila Tavares Adan Silva Daniela Rodrigues Diego Campos Diego Chagas Gustavo Sueiro Gracielle Siqueira Paulo Nobre José Marengo National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil Department of Meteorology Federal University of Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil Centre for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters Cachoeira PaulistaBrazil

To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.

关键词： South America Climate Downscaling Model Evaluation Climatic Extreme Indicators Eta Model

Contribution and Relevance of Transfontanellar Ultrasound in Newborns in Ouagadougou: Multicentre Study on 1000 Cases

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Open Journal of Radiology 2024年第2期14卷 64-73页

作者： Ouedraogo Pakisba Ali Ouedraogo Nina-Astrid Somé Milckisédek Judickael Dabire Stive Arnauld Tankoano Ida Aida Napon Aischa Madina Nikiema Zakari Diallo Ousseini Lougue Sorgho Leonie claudine Cisse Rabiou Department of Medical Imaging Ouahigouya Regional University Hospital Centre Ouahigouya University Ouahigouya Burkina Faso Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Bogodogo University Hospital Ouagadougou Burkina Faso Department of Medical Imaging Souro Sanon University Hospital Bobo Dioulasso Burkina Faso Medical Imaging Service Yalgado Oudraogo University Hospital Ouagadougou Burkina Faso Department of Medical Imaging Charles de Gaulle Pediatric University Hospital Ouagadougou Burkina Faso Radiodiagnostic and Medical Imaging Laboratory Health Sciences Training and Research Unit Joseph Ki-Zerbo University Ouagadougou Burkina Faso

Objectives: To demonstrate the contribution and relevance of ETFs through the study of 1000 examination reports carried out in the medical imaging departments of the OUAGADOUGOU CHU. Material and method: Analytical descriptive study with retrospective collection, extended from 1st January 2020 to 1st January 2022. Results: Of the 1000 transfontanellar ultrasound reports, the mean age of patients was 7.61 +/ 7.5 days, with extremes of zero and 28 days. Sex was specified in 989 cases. Males accounted for 54.49% and females for 45.51%. 555 transfontanellar ultrasound were performed in 2020. 441 in 2021 and 4 in 2022. 61.9% of transfontanellar ultrasound were performed at the Bogodogo University Hospital, 205 at Charles de Gaulle and 176 at Tengandogo. Indications for transfontanellar ultrasound were dominated by neonatal distress (65.8%), followed by convulsions (10.2%) and prematurity (9.1%). Transfontanellar ultrasound was normal in 570 cases (57%) and abnormal in 430 cases (43%). Abnormalities were dominated by haemorrhage and ischaemic lesions in 66.28% (285) and 21.63% (93) of cases respectively. In the group of normal transfontanellar ultrasound, neonatal distress represented 59.65% of indications and prematurity 10.7% of indications. As for abnormal transfontanellar ultrasound, neonatal suffering accounted for 73.95% of indications and convulsions for 12.56%. The average age ofpatients with an abnormal transfontanellar ultrasound was 8.74 days +/ 7.89 days. The indication for investigations was relevant in 42.2% of cases and irrelevant in 57.8%;of the transfontanellar ultrasound with relevant indications, 0.71 were normal and 99.29 abnormal;of the transfontanellar ultrasound with irrelevant indications, the transfontanellar ultrasound was normal in 98.1% and abnormal in 1.9%. Conclusion: Transfontanellar ultrasound is an important part of ultrasound in current practice. Haemorrhage, anoxic-ischaemic lesions and hydrocephalus are the most frequent pathologies fou

关键词： Transfontanellar Ultrasound Neonatal Distress Relevance

数字游民生活方式的商品化和浪漫化:网络叙事与职业身份工作的塑造

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开放时代 2024年第3期 183-198页

作者：克劳汀·博诺杰里米·阿罗尔斯克莱尔·埃斯塔尼亚西姚建华(译) 张艺啦(译) 加拿大魁北克大学蒙特利尔分校管理学院英国约克大学商业和社会学院加拿大魁北克大学蒙特利尔分校传播与数字化实验室复旦大学新闻学院不详

数字游民生活方式的推广者(digital nomad lifestyle promoters,DNLPs)是数字游民的重要组成部分。本文聚焦这一群体网络叙事中一组极为关键的概念,即商品化和浪漫化。首先,DNLPs的生活方式是高度商品化的。他们在社交媒体和新闻报道中... 详细信息

数字游民生活方式的推广者(digital nomad lifestyle promoters,DNLPs)是数字游民的重要组成部分。本文聚焦这一群体网络叙事中一组极为关键的概念,即商品化和浪漫化。首先,DNLPs的生活方式是高度商品化的。他们在社交媒体和新闻报道中高度可见,且极度依赖这种可见性来维持自己的生活方式,其中最主要的做法是在社交媒体上展示其生活和成功经历,用来吸引大量有意成为数字游民的人群以及新手。在这个过程中,一方面,DNLPs把自己作为数字游民的丰富经验转化为经过验证的有用方法和资源,既为其他数字游民设定了实际的行动目标,又赋能那些缺乏经验者,从而赢得社群的认可;另一方面,DNLPs在数字游民社区中销售与自己生活方式相关的产品和服务,满足不同数字游民多元化的物质和专业需求,并将其接入特定的社交网络。这种商品化和浪漫化紧密联系在一起。DNLPs的日常工作包括运用文字、照片、视频等多媒体形式,生动和直观地展示数字游民生活方式的魅力,激发人们无限的想象。无论是DNLPs分享的精彩旅行内容,还是他们的生活理念和愿景,都构筑出一个美好的、浪漫的乌托邦世界。然而,这种浪漫化也引发了一系列问题,比如掩盖了数字游民生活中那些“不太美好”的体验,如孤独感、合作困难等。在此基础上,三位作者描述和分析了DNLPs的职业活动,商业化的产品和服务,以及主导叙事,并提炼出四种典型的叙事模式:激励者、教导者、社区管理者和影响者。他们深刻地洞察到,一方面,网络叙事是DNLPs职业正当性的源泉;另一方面,它在DNLPs同侪(包括其他数字游民和地点独立工作者)身份工作的建构过程中发挥着不可替代的作用。这一类型学的构建是本文最主要的理论贡献之一。文章在结尾部分强调,DNLPs的网络叙事在正当性的基础上隐含了一种巧妙的控制。这种控制方式与传统的组织控制不同,它受商品化逻辑的驱动。在这个过程中,DNLPs只有将其生活方式浪漫化,才能确保经济利益的最大化。换言之,商品化和浪漫化与控制紧密交织。这些发现使得本文对DNLPs网络叙事的批判更具深刻性和否思性,同时启发读者进一步思考:作为零工经济中的新型社会群体,当数字游民被赋予更多时间和空间自由时,如何理解这类工作的灵活性?更为重要的是,数字游民生活方式所展现的商品化和浪漫化相互交织的线索,反映了新经济形态中劳动者与资本、新媒体技术、话语及其背后意识形态之间怎样的关系和变化呢?

关键词：社交媒体浪漫化职业身份新闻报道网络叙事新媒体技术社交网络可见性

Postoperative Outcomes in Exploratory Laparotomy and Intestinal Resection in Children: A Secondary Descriptive Observational Analysis

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Open Journal of Pediatrics 2021年第4期11卷 618-626页

作者： claudine Kumba Department of Pediatric Anesthesia and Critical Care Necker Enfants Malades University Hospital Assistance Publique H&ocirc pitaux de Paris APHP University of Paris Paris France

Background: We previously reported independent predictors of intraoperative and postoperative morbidity. These were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Score (ASA), emergency situations, surgery and transfusion. ASA was the independent predictor of mortality. We conducted a secondary analysis of this previous retrospective study in patients who underwent exploratory laparotomy and intestinal resection. Objectives: The objective was to describe intraoperative and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent exploratory laparotomy and intestinal resection in the initial study and to present a research protocol for intraoperative and postoperative optimization. Methods: Secondary analysis of the initial study was used. The Ethics Committee approved the study. Results: There were 54 patients with a median age of 15.5 [0 - 172] months. Thirty-seven (68.5%) patients underwent intestinal resection, nine (16.7%) underwent exploratory laparotomy

关键词： Exploratory Laparotomy Intestinal Resection Children Intraoperative and Postoperative Outcomes Intraoperative Goal-Directed Therapies

Neuroblastoma in Children: Intraoperative Goal Directed Therapy, Intraoperative and Postoperative Outcomes

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Open Journal of Internal Medicine 2021年第4期11卷 220-230页

作者： claudine Kumba Department of Pediatric Anesthesia and Critical Care H&ocirc pital Universitaire Necker Enfants Malades Assistance Publique H&ocirc pitaux de Paris APHP Université de Paris Paris France

Background: Neuroblastoma is the most common tumor in children. Anesthetic management can be challenging due to the localization and catecholamine-secreting characteristics of the tumor. We undertook a secondary analysis in a previous study to describe patients who underwent neuroblastoma resection. Objective: To describe intraoperative and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent neuroblastoma resection and to propose optimal intraoperative management for postoperative outcome improvement. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of children who underwent neuroblastoma resection in the initial retrospective study. Results: There were 16 patients with a mean age of 39.3 ± 22.1 months. Seven (43.8%) patients presented with intraoperative or postoperative complications. One (6.3%) patient had intraoperative broncho-laryngospasm and difficult intubation. Two (12.5%) patients had intraoperative hemorrhagic shock. One patient (6.3%) had postoperative renal failure. Two patients (12.5%) had postoperative respiratory failure, and 3 (18.8%) patients had postoperative cardiocirculatory failure. One (6.3%) had postoperative pulmonary sepsis and septicemia. Thirteen (81.3%) patients were intraoperatively transfused. There was no in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: In this cohort, 43.8% of the patients had intraoperative and or postoperative complications in terms of organ dysfunction or sepsis. 81.3% of the patients received intraoperative transfusion. Neuroblastoma surgery can be a challenging situation where cardiovascular instability, high blood loss and transfusion requirements can be encountered. Consequently, preoperative preparation and optimal intraoperative management with validated tools in children could be necessary for a better postoperative outcome in this surgical setting.

关键词： Neuroblastoma Children Intraoperative Goal Directed Therapies Postoperative Outcomes