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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006–2021

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG chunyu zhao Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial Climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Administration Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological Administration Panjin National Climate Observatory China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Jilin Provincial Climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological Administration

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid–high latitudes of East Asia, the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) substantially influences weather and climate in this region. So far, systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out. Based on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC) and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S) Prediction Project, this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale. The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity, active days, and spatial distribution of NCCVs; however, the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations. Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models. Nonetheless, in the deterministic forecasts, BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4–5(5–6) pentads, and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1–2 pentads longer than that of individual members. In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities, BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days, respectively; both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events, with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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Current status of cognition and skin care behavior in adolescent patients with acne:A survey in China

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第4期137卷 476-477页

作者： Jing Tian Hong Shu Qiufang Qian Zhong Shen chunyu zhao Li Song Ping Li Xiuping Han Hua Qian Jinping Chen Hua Wang Lin Ma Yuan Liang Department of Dermatology Beijing Children’s HospitalCapital Medical UniversityNational Center for Children’s HealthBeijing 100045China Department of Dermatology Kunming Children’s HospitalKunmingYunnan 650034China Department of Dermatology Children’s Hospital of ShanghaiChildren’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200127China Loreal China Co. LtdShanghai 200040China Department of Dermatology Henan Children’s HospitalChildren’s Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou Hospital Beijing Children’s HospitalZhengzhou Children’s HospitalZhengzhouHenan 450052China Department of Dermatology Shenzhen Children’s HospitalShenzhenGuangdong 518026China Department of Dermatology Shengjing Hospital of China Medical UniversityShenyangLiaoning 110004China Department of Dermatology Children’s Hospital of Soochow UniversitySuzhouJiangsu 215025China Department of Dermatology Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical CenterGuangzhouGuangdong 510623China Department of Dermatology Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical UniversityChongqing 400014China

To the Editor:Acne vulgaris(AV)is a common inflammatory skin condition.Population-based epidemiological studies have reported associations between dietary habits,lifestyle factors,family history,and the occurrence and development of acne.^([1–4])This study investigated the skincare behavior and cognition of patients with AV regarding predisposing factors using a designed electronic questionnaire.

关键词： patients dietary behavior

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The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第1期40卷 62-77页

作者： Yitong LIN Yihe FANG chunyu zhao Zhiqiang GONG Siqi YANG Yiqiu YU Regional Climate Center of Shenyang Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110016China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110016China College of Physics and Electronic Engineering Changshu Institute of TechnologyChangshu 215500China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Research CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Inner Mongolia Climate Center Hohhot 010051China

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

关键词： machine learning method Northeast China cold vortex path classification Indian Ocean sea surface temperature Arctic sea ice model sensitivity test

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辽宁省霾天气季节变化特征及其主导因子分析

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气象 2024年第1期50卷 84-94页

作者：崔妍赵春雨辽宁省气候中心沈阳110016

利用辽宁省51个地面气象观测站的能见度、均一化相对湿度和天气现象资料,采用最优距离法和固定比例法对能见度资料进行一致性处理,重建了1961—2020年的辽宁省逐日霾资料,并利用该资料对辽宁省年和四季霾日时空变化特征和主导因子进行... 详细信息

利用辽宁省51个地面气象观测站的能见度、均一化相对湿度和天气现象资料,采用最优距离法和固定比例法对能见度资料进行一致性处理,重建了1961—2020年的辽宁省逐日霾资料,并利用该资料对辽宁省年和四季霾日时空变化特征和主导因子进行分析。结果表明,1961—2020年辽宁省平均年霾日呈显著增加趋势[2.1 d·(10 a)^(-1)],但2015年以来霾日显著减少;空间上,年和四季霾日呈现一致的分布特征,均存在1个高值中心(沈阳)和2个副高值中心(北票和锦州),年平均霾日分别为139、52、46 d,辽东和辽西山区为霾日低发区,年平均霾日在20 d以内。风向和风速是霾日形成的重要气象因子,西南偏南风增加带来的暖湿气流对春季、夏季和秋季霾日的形成贡献较大,北风的减少则对冬季霾日的形成贡献较大。霾发生时辽宁省春季、夏季和秋季发生西南偏南风的频率分别由11.4%、12.1%和8.0%增加至15.8%、19.8%和13.5%,冬季则表现为北风发生频率的减少和静风发生频率的增加;霾发生时四季风速均较平均状况偏小,说明小风有利于霾的形成。辽宁省霾长期演变受到污染物排放、风力因子和环境政策等多种因素影响,1980—2003年霾日的不断增加是污染物增多和风速减小共同导致的,2015年以来的霾日减少则可能与大气污染防治引起的PM 2.5减少有关,同时较少的小风日数也为霾日减少提供了有利的气象条件。

关键词：霾季节变化主导因子

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Application of oxygen vacancy defects in enhanced anti-cancer nanomedicine

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中国科学:化学英文版 2023年第9期66卷 2492-2512页

作者： Yuan Gao Shuangqing Liu Hui Liu Haiyan Ge Meng Zhang chunyu zhao Yufang Gong Xinyu Zhang Chao Wang Xiao Sun Zhengyan Wu School of Chemistry and Pharmaceutical Engineering Medical Science and Technology Innovation CenterShandong First Medical University&Shandong Academy of Medical SciencesJinan 250000China Key Laboratory of High Magnetic Field and Ion Beam Physical Biology Hefei Institutes of Physical ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesHefei 230031China

Nanomedicine has become an important development direction of modern medicine, and provides a new way for cancer theranostics. To extend the superior physicochemical property of nanomedicine and enhance their role in cancer theranostics,various strategies have been proposed. Among them, the introduction of oxygen vacancies can enhance the separation of electron-hole pairs and improve the nanomaterials' catalytic activity, which is beneficial for cancer diagnosis and treatment. This review briefly summarized the formation mechanism and preparation methods of various oxygen vacancy nanomaterials. Then,the effect and application of various oxygen vacancy nanomaterials, such as iron, manganese, titanium, zinc, bismuth, tungsten,cerium, and molybdenum-based nanomaterials in enhancing cancer theranostics were highlighted. At last, the prospect and challenges of oxygen vacancy nanomaterials were discussed. This review provided an overview of the relevant information on oxygen vacancy in cancer theranostics, and further promoted the development of cancer nanomedicine.

关键词： oxygen vacancy electron-hole pairs nanomedicine catalytic therapy cancer theranostics

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Synchronization of two coupled exciters in a vibrating system of spatial motion

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Acta Mechanica Sinica 2010年第3期26卷 477-493页

作者： chunyu zhao Hongtao Zhu Yimin Zhang Bangchun Wen School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation Northeastern University 110004 Shenyang China Faculty of Engineering University of Wollongong Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia

The paper proposes an analytical approach to investigate the synchronization of the two coupled exciters in a vibrating system of spatial motion. Introducing the distur- bance parameters for average angular velocity of two excit- ers, we deduce the non-dimensional coupling equations of angular velocities of two exciters, in which the inertia cou- pling matrix is symmetric and the stiffness coupling matrix is antisymmetric in a non-resonant vibrating system. The analysis of the coupling dynamic characteristic shows that the coupled cosine effect of the phase angles will cause the torque acting on two motors to limit the increase of phase difference between two exciters as well as sustain its sym- metry of two exciters during the running process. It physi- cally explains the peculiarity of self-synchronization of two exciters. The cosine effect of phase angles of the vibrations excited by each exciter will decrease its moment of inertia. The residual moment of inertia of each exciter represents its relative moment of inertia. The stability condition of synchro- nization of two exciters is that the relative non-dimensional moments of inertia of two exciters are all greater than zero and four times their product is greater than the square of their coefficient of coupled cosine effect of phase angles, which is equivalent to that the inertia coupling matrix is positive definite and all its elements are positive. The numeric results show that the structure of the vibrating system can ensure the stability condition of synchronous operation.

关键词： Frequency capture - StabilitySynchronization Vibrating system -Vibratory synchronization transmission

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Self-synchronization theory of dual motor driven vibration system with two-stage vibration isolation frame

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2015年第2期36卷 265-278页

作者： He LI Dan LIU Lai JIANG chunyu zhao Bangchun WEN School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation Northeastern University

This paper studies self-synchronization and stability of a dual-motor driven vibration system with a two-stage vibration isolation frame. Oscillation amplitude of the material box large enough can be ensured on the vibration system in order to screen materials. Reduction of the dynamic load transmitted to the foundation can also be achieved for the vibration system. A Lagrange equation is used to set up the motion differential equations of the system, and a dimensionless coupled equation of the eccentric rotors is obtained using a method of modified average small parameter. According to the existence condition of zero solution in the dimensionless coupled equation of the eccentric rotors, the precondition for commencing self-synchronization motion is achieved.The stability condition of self-synchronization is obtained based on the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The theoretical analysis is validated by simulations and experiments.

关键词： self-synchronization vibration system stability vibration isolation

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Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1085-1095页

作者： Yihe FANG Haishan CHEN Zhiqiang GONG Fangshu XU chunyu zhao Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Changeand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Regional Climate Center of Shenyang Shenyang 110016 Laboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Monitoring and Diagnose National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Liaoning Meteorological Service Center Shenyang 110016

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China （NEC） and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0. 13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.

关键词： summer precipitation northeastern China sea surface temperature El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic–analogue correction probabilistic prediction

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数字赋能、可持续探索实践与制造业企业绿色创新——环境规制下对企业的微观调查

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商业研究 2024年第3期 134-141页

作者：赵春雨赵亚楠武亚茹哈尔滨商业大学商务学院哈尔滨150028 哈尔滨商业大学管理学院哈尔滨150028

数字经济背景下,企业绿色创新是实现制造业高质量、可持续发展的重要途径。本文分析了数字赋能对提高制造业企业绿色创新绩效的内在机理,并进一步论证了命令控制型环境规制和市场激励型环境规制对于数字赋能、可持续探索和绿色创新绩效... 详细信息

数字经济背景下,企业绿色创新是实现制造业高质量、可持续发展的重要途径。本文分析了数字赋能对提高制造业企业绿色创新绩效的内在机理,并进一步论证了命令控制型环境规制和市场激励型环境规制对于数字赋能、可持续探索和绿色创新绩效关系间的调节作用。通过对我国制造业356份企业调查数据的实证检验发现:数字赋能对制造企业绿色创新绩效有显著的促进作用;可持续探索实践在数字赋能和绿色创新绩效关系中起中介作用;命令控制型环境规制正向调节数字赋能对可持续探索实践的正向关系;而市场激励型环境规制在可持续探索实践和绿色创新绩效的关系中调节作用不显著。

关键词：数字赋能绿色创新绩效可持续探索实践命令控制型环境规制市场激励型环境规制

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Classification of Northeast China Cold Vortex Activity Paths in Early Summer Based on K-means Clustering and Their Climate Impact

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第3期38卷 400-412页

作者： Yihe FANG Haishan CHEN Yi LIN chunyu zhao Yitong LIN Fang ZHOU Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110016China Regional Climate Center of Shenyang Liaoning Province Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110016China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110016China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Service Center Shenyang 110016China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physicsand Nansen-Zhu International

The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.

关键词： northeastern China early summer Northeast China Cold Vortex classification of activity paths machine learning method k-means clustering high-pressure blocking

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