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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nicola mARTIN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Gill m.mARTIN Nicola GOLDING Joanne CAmP Peiqun ZHANG chris D.HEWITT Leon HERmANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU min LIU met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASm) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in may–June–July(mJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both mJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the mJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) East Asian summer monsoon(EASm)

Arsenic species in electronic cigarettes:Determination and potential health risk

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2020年第5期32卷 168-176页

作者： Qingqing Liu Chengzhi Huang Xchris Le Chongqing Key Laboratory of Biomedical Analysis(Southwest University) Chongqing Science&Technology CommissionCollege of Chemistry and Chemical EngineeringSouthwest UniversityChongqing 400715China College of Resources and Environment Southwest UniversityChongqing400715China Key Laboratory of Luminescent and Real-Time Analytical System Chongqing Science and Technology BureauCollege of Pharmaceutical SciencesSouthwest UniversityChongqing 400715China Department of Laboratory medicine and Pathology Faculty of Medicine and DentistryUniversity of Alberta10102 Clinical Sciences BuildingEdmontonAlberta T6G 2G3Canada

Human exposure to contaminants from electronic cigarettes(e-cigarettes)and the associated health effects are poorly *** has been no report on the speciation of arsenic in e-liquid(solution used for e-cigarettes)and *** report here determination of arsenic species in e-liquids and aerosols generated from vaping the *** e-liquid samples of major brands,purchased from local and online stores in Canada and China,were analyzed for arsenic species using high-performance liquid chromatography and inductively coupled plasma mass *** condensed from vaping the eliquids were also analyzed and compared for arsenic *** arsenic species were detected,including inorganic arsenate(iAsⅤ),arsenite(iAsⅢ),monomethylarsonic acid(mmA),and three new arsenic species not reported *** e-liquids,iAsⅢwas detected in 59%,iAsⅤin 94%,and mmA in 47%of the *** the condensate of aerosols from vaping the e-liquids,iAsⅢwas detected in 100%,iAsv in 88%,and mmA in 13%of the *** arsenic species were predominant in e-liquids and aerosols of *** concentration of iAsⅢin the condensate of aerosols(median 3.27μg/kg)was significantly higher than that in the e-liquid(median 1.08μg/kg)*** concentration of inorganic arsenic in the vaping air was approximately 3.4μg/m3,which approaches to the permissible exposure limit(10μg/m3)set by the United States Occupational Safety and Health Administration(OSHA).According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s unit risk factor(4.3×10-3 perμg/m3)for inhalation exposure to inorganic arsenic in the air,the estimated excess lung cancer risk from lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in the ecigarette vaping air(3.4μg/m3),assuming e-cigarette vaping at 1%of the time,is as high as1.5×*** results raise health concerns over the exposure to arsenic from electronic cigarettes.

关键词： Electronic cigarettes E-liquid E-cigarette aerosol Arsenic speciation Inhalation exposure metals Lung cancer risk

Searching for Bacterial Biofilm in Recurrent Cholangitis in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis:A Case Presentation and Introduction of an Unexplored Disease mechanism

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Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology 2018年第1期6卷 114-118页

作者： Alyssa Y. Choi Florencia Jalikis maria Westerhoff Sarag Boukhar Elinor Pulcini chris Damman Lei Yu Department of Internal medicine University of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA Department of Pathology University of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA Department of Pathology University of IowaIowa CityIowaUSA Center for Biofilm Engineering Montana State UniversityBozemanMontanaUSA Division of Gastroenterology University of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA

Inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts are the defining pathological characteristics of primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC).A previously unexplored mechanism for recurrent cholangitis,one of PSC's most common presentations,is bacterial colonization of the biliary epithelium in the form of biofilm,which may confer resistance to antibiotics and host phagocytic *** aim of the current study was to assess whether bacteria could be seen on the liver explant and whether they organized in the form of *** explanted PSC liver from a 60-year-old male who suffered from recurrent cholangitis was formalin-fixed,paraffinembedded and Gram *** specimens were observed under light *** bacteria nor biofilm were *** did not detect bacteria or biofilm in the liver explant of a single PSC patient with recurrent cholangitis using standard light *** suspect this may be in part due to techniques related to tissue preservation and microscopy.

关键词： Primary sclerosing cholangitis Recurrent cholangitis Biofilm

Cyber Security: Nonlinear Stochastic models for Predicting the Exploitability

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Journal of Information Security 2017年第2期8卷 125-140页

作者： Sasith m. Rajasooriya chris. P. Tsokos Pubudu Kalpani Kaluarachchi Department of mathematics and Statistics University Of South Florida Tampa Florida USA

Obtaining complete information regarding discovered vulnerabilities looks extremely difficult. Yet, developing statistical models requires a great deal of such complete information about the vulnerabilities. In our previous studies, we introduced a new concept of “Risk Factor” of vulnerability which was calculated as a function of time. We introduced the use of markovian approach to estimate the probability of a particular vulnerability being at a particular “state” of the vulnerability life cycle. In this study, we further develop our models, use available data sources in a probabilistic foundation to enhance the reliability and also introduce some useful new modeling strategies for vulnerability risk estimation. Finally, we present a new set of Non-Linear Statistical models that can be used in estimating the probability of being exploited as a function of time. Our study is based on the typical security system and vulnerability data that are available. However, our methodology and system structure can be applied to a specific security system by any software engineer and using their own vulnerabilities to obtain their probability of being exploited as a function of time. This information is very important to a company’s security system in its strategic plan to monitor and improve its process for not being exploited.

关键词： Vulnerability Lifecycle Stochastic modeling Security Risk Factor markov Process Risk Evaluation

An analysis of quantitative PCR reliability through replicates using the C_(t)method

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Journal of Biomedical Science and Engineering 2010年第5期3卷 459-469页

作者： chris C.Stowers Frederick R.Haselton Erik m.Boczko Bioprocess R&D Division Dow AgroSciences LLC Indianapolis IndianaUSA Department of Biomedical Engineering Vanderbilt University Nashville NashvilleUSA Department of Biomedical Informatics Vanderbilt University medical Center Nashville NashvilleUSA

There is considerable interest in quantitatively measuring nucleic acids from single cells to small populations. The most commonly employed laboratory method is the real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyzed with the crossing point or crossing threshold (Ct) method. Utilizing a multiwell plate reader we have performed hundreds of replicate reactions each at a set of initial conditions whose initial number of copies span a concentration range of ten orders of magnitude. The resultant Ct value distributions are analyzed with standard and novel statistical techniques to assess the variability/reliability of the PCR process. Our analysis supports the following conclusions. Given sufficient replicates, the mean and/or median Ct values are statistically distinguishable and can be rank ordered across ten orders of magnitude in initial template concentration. As expected, the variances in the Ct distributions grow as the number of initial copies declines to 1. We demonstrate that these variances are large enough to confound quantitative classi?cation of the initial condition at low template concentrations. The data indicate that a misclassi?cation transition is centered around 3000 initial copies of template DNA and that the transition region correlates with independent data on the thermal wear of the TAQ polymerase enzyme. We provide data that indicate that an alternative endpoint detection strategy based on the theory of well mixing and plate ?lling statistics is accurate below the mis- classi?cation transition where the real time method becomes unreliable.

关键词： misclassification Transition Single molecule Counting Rank Ordering Running Title PCR Replicates and Reliability

Nonhomogeneous Risk Rank Analysis method for Security Network System

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International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences 2019年第1期12卷 1-10页

作者： Pubudu Kalpani Hitigala Kaluarachchilage chris P. Tsokos Sasith m. Rajasooriya Department of mathematical and Physical Sciences Miami University Middletown OH USA Department of mathematics and Statistics University of South Florida Tampa FL USA Department of mathematics University of Dayton Dayton OH USA

Security measures for a computer network system can be enhanced with better understanding the vulnerabilities and their behavior over the time. It is observed that the effects of vulnerabilities vary with the time over their life cycle. In the present study, we have presented a new methodology to assess the magnitude of the risk of a vulnerability as a “Risk Rank”. To derive this new methodology well known markovian approach with a transition probability matrix is used including relevant risk factors for discovered and recorded vulnerabilities. However, in addition to observing the risk factor for each vulnerability individually we have introduced the concept of ranking vulnerabilities at a particular time taking a similar approach to Google Page Rank Algorithm. New methodology is exemplified using a simple model of computer network with three recorded vulnerabilities with their CVSS scores.

关键词： markov Chain Vulnerability Non Homogeneous Risk Analysis Network Security Google Page Rank

The formulation and generation of a live but genetically attenuated malaria parasite vaccine

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The formulation and generation of a live but genetically att...

On tolerability and safety of a maintenance treatment with 6-thioguanine in azathioprineor 6-mercaptopurine intolerant IBD patients

中国动物学会寄生虫学专业委员会第十三次全国学术会议暨第四次国际寄生虫学学术研讨会

作者： chris J.Janse Shahid m.Khan Leiden malaria Research Group LUMC

Generating sterile and long lasting protective immunity against malaria with subunit vaccines has been fraught with *** has renewed an interest in vaccinations using attenuated Plasmodium *** with irradiated sporozoit...

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2005年第35期11卷 5540-5544页

作者： Nanne KH de Boer Luc JJ Derijks Lennard PL Gilissen Daniel W Hommes Leopold GJB Engels Sybrand Y de Boer Gijsbertus den Hartog Piet m Hooymans Anja BU m(?)kelburg Barend D Westerveld Anton HJ Naber chris JJ mulder Dirk J de Jong Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology VU University medical Centre Amsterdam The Netherlands Department of Clinical Pharmacy maxima medical Centre Veldhoven The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Academic Hospital Maastricht The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Academic medical Centre Amsterdam The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology maasland Hospital Sittard The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Rijnstate Hospital Arnhem The Netherlands Department of Clinical Pharmacy maasland Hospital Sittard The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Isala Clinics Location Sophia Zwolle The Netherlands Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Radboud University Nijmegen medical Centre The Netherlands

AIm: To determine the tolerability and safety profile of a low-dose maintenance therapy with 6-TG in azathioprine (AZA) or 6-mercaptopurine (6-mP) intolerant inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients over a treatment period of at least 1 ***: Database ***: Twenty out of ninety-five (21%) patients discontinued 6-TG (mean dose 24.6 mg; mean 6-TGN level 540 pmol/8×108 RBC) within 1 year. Reasons for discontinuation were GI complaints (31%), malaise (15%)and hepatotoxicity (15%). Hematological events occurred in three patients, one discontinued treatment. In the 6-TG-tolerant group, 9% (7/75) could be classified as hepatotoxicity. An abdominal ultrasound was performed in 54% of patients, one patient had ***: The majority of AZA or 6-mP-intolerant IBD patients (79%) is able to tolerate maintenance treatment with 6-TG (dosages between 0.3 and 0.4 mg/kg per d). 6-TG may still be considered as an escape maintenance immunosuppressant in this difficult to treat group of patients, taking into account potential toxicity and efficacy of other alternatives. The recently reported hepatotoxicity is worrisome and 6-TG should therefore be administered only in prospective trials.

关键词： 6-Thioguanine Azathioprine 6-mercaptopurine Crohn's disease Ulcerative colitis Side effects Tolerance Safety

Development of droplet characteristics prediction models for air induction nozzles based on wind tunnel tests

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2019年第6期12卷 1-6页

作者： Juan Liao Andrew John Hewitt Pei Wang Xiwen Luo Ying Zang Zhiyan Zhou Yubin Lan chris O’Donnell College of Engineering South China Agricultural University/Engineering Research Center for Agricultural Aviation Application(ERCAAA)Guangzhou 510642China Key Laboratory of Key Technology on Agricultural machine and Equipment(South China Agricultural University) Ministry of EducationGuangzhou 510642China National Joint Research Center for Precision Agricultural Aviation Application Technology Guangzhou 510642China The University of Queensland GattonQueensland 4343Australia School of Electrical and Information Engineering Jiangsu UniversityZhenjiang 212013China

Nozzle flowrate and spray pressure are two of the most important factors influencing on droplet *** the aim to develop prediction models for air-induction nozzles(AINs),a series of Billericay Farm Services(BFS)AINs with different orifice diameters in combination with tap water were tested.0.2 mPa,0.3 mPa,0.4 mPa,0.5 mPa,0.6 mPa and 0.7 mPa of spray pressures and 2 m/s,3 m/s,4 m/s and 5 m/s of air speeds were *** on the wind tunnel tests data,prediction models with input variables of nozzle flowrate and spray pressure and output variables of D_(v0.1),D_(v0.5),D_(v0.9),%m(proportion of spray volume contained in droplets with diameter below 150μm),relative span(RS)and coefficient of variation(CV)of D_(v0.5) were *** developed models were validated based on wind tunnel experimental *** showed that:for D_(v0.1),D_(v0.5),D_(v0.9) and%m,R^(2) were equal to 0.768,0.823,0.868 and 0.811,indicating that the predictive ability for these four parameters is *** RS and CV,R^(2) were equal to 0.100 and 0.113,respectively,indicating that the predictive ability for these two parameters is *** models developed in the present study are helpful for facilitating the use of AIN in agricultural spray application.

关键词： prediction model agricultural spray application droplet characteristics AIN laser diffraction