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china＇s Macroeconomic Outlook and Risk Assessment： Counterfactual Analysis, Policy Simulation, and Long-Term Governance- A Summary of Annual Report （2015-2016）

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Frontiers of Economics in china-Selected Publications from chinese Universities 2016年第2期11卷 173-191页

作者： kevin X. D. huang Guoqiang Tian Department of Economics Vanderbilt University Nashville TN 37235-1819 USA Institute for Advanced Research (IAR) Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) Shanghai 200433 China School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Research (IAR) Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) Shanghai 200433 China Department of Economics Texas A&M University College Station TX 77843 USA

Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in china＇s key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% （5.5% using more reliable instead of official data） in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including： lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises （SOEs） with excess capacity／capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the ＂New Normal.＂ A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in china＇s transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda.

关键词： macroeconomic forecast risk assessment policy simulation,alternative scenarios long-term governance

Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate china’s Economic Development:Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2019-2020)

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Frontiers of Economics in china-Selected Publications from chinese Universities 2020年第1期15卷 1-24页

作者： kevin X.D.huang Zixi Liu Guoqiang Tian Department of Economics Vanderbilt UniversityNashvilleTN 37235USA Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai 200433China Department of Economics Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX 77843USA

Twenty nineteen(2019)marked another year of lethargic growth in the chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external ***,the country's macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth,plunged growth in manufacturing investment,rapid accumulation of household debt,risen income inequality,and the overhang of local government *** nation's external conditions did not fare any better,with drastically declined growth in imports and exports,continued trade tensions with the US,and weakened external *** on the IAR-CMM model,which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors,the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0%in 2020(5.9%using more reliable rather than the official data),with a downside *** scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted,in addition to the benchmark forecast,to reflect the influences of various internal and external *** findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for china’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.

关键词： macroeconomic outlook alternative scenario policy simulation competitive neutrality reform systemic risk resource misallocation

chinese Economy under the New"Dual Circulation"Strategy:Challenges and Opportunities-A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report(2020-2021)

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Frontiers of Economics in china-Selected Publications from chinese Universities 2021年第1期16卷 1-29页

作者： kevin X.D.huang Shuangjian Li Guoqiang Tian Department of Economics Vanderbilt UniversityNashvilleTN 37235USA Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai 200433China Department of Economics Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX 77843USA

Entering year 2020,the chinese economy was struck by the COVID-19 *** unprecedented pandemic,entangled with the already elevated complexities in the nation's internal environment and external surroundings,aggravated its economic *** factors including severe education mismatch in china's labor force,its vanishing demographic dividend,the declined purchasing power of its middle-income groups,risen leverage ratio of households and enterprises,and soared local government debt reinforced to weaken china's domestic *** factors,especially uncertainty in the china-US relation in the face of the re-shaping global value chain,dragged world economic recovery and thus china's exports and *** summary report highlights some major challenges and opportunities faced by the nation under its new development strategy that stresses internal circulation of domestic economy aided by its interaction with the *** analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing china's short-,medium-,and long-term issues in an internally coherent *** into year 2021,our benchmark projection reports an 8.4%annual real GDP growth *** scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of potential downside risks and the corresponding policy options for ensuring implicit *** the lens of these analyses,we conclude that a refocus on effective management of internal demand,while deepening structural reforms on supply side and advancing orderly opening up,can help smooth the internal and external circulations of the chinese economy to achieve high-quality development.

关键词： macroeconomic outlook alternative scenario analysis policy simulation systemic risk structural reforms opening up dual circulation

A CuO/TiO_(2)Heterojunction Based CO Sensor with High Response and Selectivity

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Energy & Environmental Materials 2023年第3期6卷 409-416页

作者： Wei Wei Huanhuan Zhang Tiyue Tao Xiaohong Xia Yuwen Bao Manon Lourenco kevin Homewood Zhongbing huang Yun Gao Ministry-of-Education Key Laboratory for the Green Preparation and Application of Functional Materials Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Organic Chemical Materials Co-constructed by the Province and MinistrySchool of Materials Science&EngineeringHubei UniversityWuhan 430062China

The use of heterojunctions is a promising solution to the problem of cross-sensitivity in gas *** this work,a carbon monoxide sensor based on the CuO/TiO_(2)heterojunction was designed and *** to the good adsorption properties of CuO materials to CO,and the heterojunction interface charge transfer,the CuO/TiO_(2)thin film sensor exhibits high sensitivity to CO at room *** response is as high as 10.8–200 ppm CO,about 10 times its response to H_(2).Interference from H_(2)is greatly reduced by optimizing the structure of the CuO/TiO_(2)*** reliable detection of carbon monoxide with excellent discrimination against H_(2)is of great significance for the development of CO gas sensors.

关键词： carbon monoxide cross-sensitivity gas sensor heterojunction hydrogen

Tackle china's Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)

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Frontiers of Economics in china-Selected Publications from chinese Universities 2019年第1期14卷 80-109页

作者： kevin X.D. huang Guoqiang Tian Yuqin Wang Department of Economics Vanderbilt University Nashville TN 37235 USA Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai 200433 China Department of Economics Texas A&M University College Station TX 77843 USA School of Economics Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai 200433 China

Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, china's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in china's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for china's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.

关键词： macroeconomic outlook alternative scenario analysis policy simulation risk reform complex status-quo resource misallocations market-oriented

Pathotypes and Genetic Diversity of chinese Collections of Elsinoě fawcettii Causing Citrus Scab

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2014年第6期13卷 1293-1302页

作者： HOU Xin huang Feng ZHANG Tian-yuan XU Jian-guo Hyde D kevin LI Hong-ye Institute of Biotechnology Zhejiang University Zhejiang Citrus Research Institute Institute of Excellence in Fungal Research Mae Fah Luang University

Two scab diseases are currently recognized on citrus：citrus scab, caused by Elsino？ fawcettii, and sweet orange scab, caused by E. australis. Although these pathogens are economically important, there is no molecular data on these species in china. Here we use internal transcribed spacer sequence data to report on host-speciifcity and genetic relationships among 46 isolates collected from the main citrus varieties grown across china. All strains isolated were E. fawcettii. Based on pathogenicity testing on 9 different citrus species, isolates were divided into 11 pathotypes （SM, FBHR, SJCR, SPOJCR, SR, SOJG, SPOJC, SRGC, Lemon and two unnamed pathotypes）. SM is a new pathotype, and two isolates did not ift into any of the known pathotypes of E. fawcettii. Inter-simple sequence repeat （ISSR-PCR） assays separated the E. fawcettii isolates into 10 subgroups;the groupings basically corresponded to the pathogenicity test.

关键词： ElsinoYfawcettii genetic diversity ISSR pathotypes

Phyllosticta species associated with citrus diseases in china

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Fungal Diversity 2012年第1期52卷 209-224页

作者： Xinghong Wang Guoqing Chen Feng huang Jingze Zhang kevin D.Hyde Hongye Li Institute of Biotechnology Zhejiang UniversityHangzhouZhejiang 310058People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Molecular Biology for Crop Pathogens and Insect Pests of Minstry of Agriculture Zhejiang UniversityHangzhouZhejiang 310058People’s Republic of China School of Science Mae Fah Luang University 333 M.1.T.Tasud Muang DistrictChiang Rai 57100Thailand College of Science Botany and Microbiology DepartmentKing Saud UniversityP.O.Box:2455Riyadh 1145Saudi Arabia

Phyllosticta species associated with diseases of four commercial Citrus species grown in china are ***,496 Phyllosticta strains were isolated from mandarins(Citrus reticulata),pomeloes(***),oranges(***)and lemons(***)in the main citrus producing regions across china,and 74 strains were selected for phylogenetic *** inferred from the sequences of internal transcribed spacer region(ITS1,5.8S nrDNA and ITS2),partial translation elongation factor 1-alpha(TEF1)and partial actin gene(ACT),showed these representative Phyllosticta isolates clustered in four distinct clades corresponding to three known,and one undescribed *** newly resolved taxon,Phyllosticta citrichinaensis was isolated from leaves and fruits of all four Citrus species and is introduced in this *** taxon caused minor damage,showing irregular spots or *** citriasiana,associated with tan spot of pomeloes,was isolated only from pomeloes,and never from lemons,mandarins and *** citricarpa,the citrus black spot pathogen,which is presently subjected to phytosanitary legislation in the EU and United States,was isolated from lemons,mandarins and oranges,but never from *** isolates of *** clustered in two subclades,one from mandarins,the other from oranges and *** was isolated from all four Citrus species as an endophyte,causing false melanose,or together with *** or ***,cultural and biochemical characters were consistent with the results of phylogenetic *** addition,a specific primer pair Pca8/ITS4 was designed and selected,and its corresponding PCR procedure was developed for the detection of *** in this study.

关键词： Citrus black spot disease Biochemical character Phylogeny Morphology Rutaceae Species-specific primer

china under Uncertainty： Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation--A Summary of Annual Report （2016-2017）

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Frontiers of Economics in china-Selected Publications from chinese Universities 2017年第2期12卷 167-187页

作者： kevin X. D. huang Guoqiang Tian Yibo Yang Department of Economics Vanderbilt University Nashville TN 37235 USA Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai 200433 China School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Research Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai 200433 China Department of Economics Texas A&M University College Station TX 77843-1372 USA

china＇s macroeconomy is surrounded by increased uncertainties while facing persistent downward pressures entering year 2017. Major external challenges are imposed by the chaotic political climate and disorderly retreat from globalization of the US accompanied with the impending FED rate hikes, which may trigger a destructive trade war and exert pressures on RMB depreciation and capital flight. Remaining ingrained in major internal challenges are the gridlock risks accumulated from excessive financialization of real estate sector and swelling housing market bubbles amid escalating debt levels, and more fundamentally, the continued off-real-to-virtual movement in the general economy and ascendancy of government over market in resource *** on IAR-CMM model, which takes into account both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.5% in 2017 （6.13% using more reliable instead of official data）. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are also conducted to highlight the convoluted uncertainties surrounding china＇s macroeconomy. Through the lens of these analyses, we identify a root cause of the weak outlook as the persistently distorted economic structure due to procrastination in reforms of the institutions and governance, which not only impairs china＇s growth potential but also limits the power of its recent stimulating policies while exacerbating their side effects. Key to successful economic restructuring in the face of adversely evolving demographics are market-oriented reforms, with well-designed strategies to balance short-term stabilization and long-run development. Such reforms should hold center stage in china＇s transition towards a modern free market economy and regulatory state.

关键词： macroeconomic outlook uncertainty alternative scenarios policysimulation reform development governance

Subsea flexible flowline installation issues and solutions

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Engineering Sciences 2013年第4期11卷 86-91页

作者： kevin huang DMAR Engineering Inc.

Flexible flowlines and risers have been increasingly used for deepwater and ultra-deepwater field applications,partially because of its low submerged weight and better dynamic characteristics comparing to rigid pipelines. The offshore installation of flowline may have advantages as well. However,it has special needs for the in-stallation aids,and it is challenging to install tie-in structures due to its low bending stiffness. This paper is to present some of the challenges during a recent flexible installation project with a total of more than 100 km flexible flowlines,and 24 in-line sleds/pipeline end termination(PLET) in water depth up to 1 300 m.

关键词： flexible installation normal lay in-line sled PLET