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Seasonal Prediction of Boreal Winter Rainfall over the Western Maritime Continent during ENSO

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 294-303页

作者： Chih-Pei Chang Tim LI Song YANG Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate SchoolMontereyCA 93943USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonoluluHI 96822USA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China

Since the beginning of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Climate Outlook Forum(ASEANCOF)in 2013,the most difficult challenge has been the rainfall forecast in boreal winter.This is the Maritime Continent monsoon season during which rainfall reaches maximum in the annual cycle.This forecast difficulty arises in spite of the general notion that seasonal predictability of the Maritime Continent rainfall may be higher than most places because of the strong and robust influences of ENSO.The lower predictability is consistent with the lower correlation between ENSO and western Maritime Continent rainfall that reaches minimum during the boreal winter monsoon.Various theories have been proposed to explain this low correlation.In this paper,we review the research on ENSO–Maritime Continent rainfall relationship and show that the main cause of the forecast difficulty is the wind–terrain interaction involving the Sumatran and Malay Peninsula mountains,rather than the effect of sea surface temperature(SST).The wind–terrain interaction due to the low-level regional scale anomalous horizontal circulation offsets the anomalous Walker circulation during both El Ni?o and La Ni?a.The net result of these two opposing responses to ENSO is a lower local predictability.We propose to call this low-predictability region the WIMP(Western Indonesia–Malay Peninsula)region both for its geographical location and its special characteristic of causing difficulties for forecasters to make a confident forecast for the boreal winter.Our result suggests that climate models lack skills in forecasting rainfall in this region because their predictability depends strongly on SST.

关键词： seasonal forecast Maritime Continent ENSO monsoon rainfall wind-terrain interaction

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Theories on Formation of an Anomalous Anticyclone in Western North Pacific during El Nino:A Review

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 987-1006页

作者： Tim LI Bin WANG Bo WU Tianjun ZHOU Chih-Pei Chang Renhe ZHANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China

The western Noah Pacific anomalous anticyclone （WNPAC） is an important atmospheric circulation system that conveys El Nifio impact on East Asian climate. In this review paper, various theories on the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC, including warm pool atmosphere-ocean interaction, Indian Ocean capacitor, a combination mode that emphasizes nonlinear interaction between ENSO and annual cycle, moist enthalpy advecfion/Rossby wave modulation, and central Pacific SST forcing, are discussed. It is concluded that local atmosphere-ocean interaction and moist enthalpy advection/Rossby wave modulation mechanisms are essential for the initial development and maintenance of the WNPAC during El Nifio mature winter and subsequent spring. The Indian Ocean capacitor mechanism does not contribute to the earlier development but helps maintain the WNPAC in El Nifio decaying summer. The cold SST anomaly in the western North Pacific, although damped in the summer, also plays a role. An inter- basin atmosphere-ocean interaction across the Indo-Pacific warm pool emerges as a new mechanism in summer. In addition, the central Pacific cold SST anomaly may induce the WNPAC during rapid El Nifio decaying/La Nina developing or La Nifia persisting summer. The near-annual periods predicted by the combination mode theory are hardly detected from observations and thus do not contribute to the formation of the WNPAC. The tropical Atlantic may have a capacitor effect similar to the tropical Indian Ocean.

关键词： western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone El Ni?o atmosphere–ocean interaction ENSO sea surface temperature Indian Ocean capacitor

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Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

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Science Bulletin 2019年第21期64卷 1557-1561页

作者： Yali Luo Liye Li Richard HJohnson Chih-Pei Chang Lianshou Chen Wai-Kin Wong Jing Chen Kalli Furtado John LMcBride Ajit Tyagi Nanette Lomarda Thierry Lefort Esperanza O.Cayanan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523USA Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Hong Kong Observatory.Hong Kong 999077 China Numerical Prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office ExeterDevon EXI 3PBUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoria 3001Australia India Meteorological Department Noida 201303India World Weather Research Division World Meteorological OrganizationGeneva 1211Switzerland Meteo-France Toulouse 31000France Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Quezon City 1100Philippines

With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)since 2010.Series of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.An international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.

关键词： China. rainfall monsoon

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AN AHP MODEL FOR BRINGING EXPERTS TO CONSENSUS ON MEDICAL PAYMENT STANDARDS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2006年第2期15卷 247-255页

作者： Yuan-Huei HUANG pei-Yeh chang chih-Young HUNG Kuei-Ing WANG King-Jen chang Department of Surgery Hsin-Chu General HospitalTaiwanChina Department of Pediatric Surgery Chang Gung Children’s HospitalChang Gung UniversityCollege of MedicineTaiwanChina Institute of Management of Technology National Chiao Tung UniversityTaiwanChina Department of Information Management Ming Hsin University of Science and TechnologyTaiwanChina Department of Surgery National Taiwan University HospitalTaiwanChina

Many countries with health insurance systems conduct periodic payment standards reform. How to reach consensus in setting payment standards among different specialties with different agendas has become a critical issue. The purpose of this study is to construct an analytic hierarchy process （AHP） model to obtain judgments from experts about the importance of ＂factors related to establishing payment standards in the national health insurance program＂. Under this goal, the first tier contains four evaluation aspects, and the second tier contains sixteen evaluation criteria divided into four groups The AHP model was then used to collect and combine the opinions of experts through an empirical study. The results can be directly used to formulate standard values as the basis for establishing payment standards. The results of our study strongly support that an AHP model is effective in forming a consensus among surgical specialists.

关键词： National Health Insurance Analytic Hierarchy Process payment standards

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The Prevalence and Surgical Repair of Canine Medial Patellar Luxation in Southern Taiwan

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畜牧与兽医 2012年第S2期44卷 59-60页

作者： Chi-Hsien Chien Rey-Shyong Chen pei-Chun Chiu chih-chang Peng College of Veterinary Medicine Small Animal Surgery and AcupunctureAnimal Hospital National Pingtung University of Science and Technology

Medial patella luxation(MPL)is most common orthopedic disease in toy and miniature breeds.The breed predisposition in the United States has been reported for the Boston Terrier,chihuahua,Pomeranian,Miniature Poodle,and Yorkshire Terrier[1].In Japan,beside Pomeranian and toy poodle,the Japanese Chin and Shiba are mostly affected breeds[2].Multiple surgical techniques have been applied successfully to correct such disorders including

关键词： medial Japanese miniature breed correct mostly Taiwan Boston bilateral groove

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Generalized load graphical forecasting method based on modal decomposition

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Global Energy Interconnection 2024年第2期7卷 166-178页

作者： Lizhen Wu peixin chang Wei Chen Tingting pei College of Electrical and Information Engineering Lanzhou University of TechnologyLanzhou 730050P.R.China School of Electrical Data Engineering University of Technology SydneyNSW2007Australia

In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.

关键词： Load forecasting Generalized load Image processing DenseNet Modal decomposition

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Regulatory networks between Polycomb complexes and non-coding RNAs in the central nervous system

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Journal of Molecular Cell Biology 2020年第5期12卷 327-336页

作者： Ya-Jie Xu pei-pei Liu Shyh-chang Ng Zhao-Qian Teng chang-Mei Liu State Key Laboratory of Stem Cell and Reproductive Biology Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Savaid Medical School University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute for Stem Cell and Regeneration Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

High-throughput sequencing has facilitated the identification of many types of non-coding RNAs(ncRNAs)involved in diverse cellular processes.NcRNAs as epigenetic mediators play key roles in neuronal development,maintenance,and dysfunction by controlling gene expression at multiple levels.NcRNAs may not only target specific DNA or RNA for gene silence but may also directly interact with chromatin-modifying proteins like Polycomb group(PcG)proteins to drive orchestrated transcriptional programs.Recent significant progress has been made in characterizing ncRNAs and PcG proteins involved in transcriptional,post-transcriptional,and epigenetic regulation.More importantly,dysregulation of ncRNAs,PcG proteins,and interplay among them is closely associated with the pathogenesis of central nervous system(CNS)disorders.In this review,we focus on the interplay between ncRNAs and PcG proteins in the CNS and highlight the functional roles of the partnership during neural development and diseases.

关键词： epigenetics Polycomb complexes non-coding RNAs central nervous system neurological diseases

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A Remark on the Generalized Second Order Toda System

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Acta Mathematica Sinica,English Series 2013年第9期29卷 1691-1702页

作者： Rui chang pei School of Mathematics and Statistics Tianshui Normal University

In this paper, we establish a priori estimates to the generalized second order Toda system{-Δu1（x）=2R1（x）eu1-R2eu2,-Δu2（x）=R1（x）eu1＋2R2eu2 in R2 , and discuss the convergence and asymptotic behavior of its solutions, where Ri（x）, i=1, 2, is bounded function in R2 . Consequently, we prove that all the solutions satisfy an identity, which is somewhat a generalization of the well-known Kazdan-Warner condition.

关键词： Second order Toda system asymptotic behavior priori estimates convergence

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Overview of Computational Modeling in Nano/Micro Scaled Thin Films Mechanical Properties and Its Applications

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2019年第8期120卷 239-260页

作者： chang-Chun Lee pei-Chen Huang Department of Power Mechanical Engineering National Tsing Hua UniversityNo.101Section 2Kuang-Fu RoadHsinchu 30013Taiwan

This research reviews the application of computational mechanics on the properties of nano/micro scaled thin films,in which the application of different computational methods is included.The concept and fundamental theories of concerned applications,material behavior estimations,interfacial delamination behavior,strain engineering,and multilevel modeling are thoroughly discussed.Moreover,an example of an interfacial adhesion estimation is presented to systematically estimate the related mechanical reliability issue in the microelectronic industry.The presented results show that the peeled mode fracture is the dominant delamination behavior of layered material system,with high stiffness along the bonding interface.However,the shear mode fracture being dominated as the polymer cover plate with low moduli is considered.The occurrence of crack advance is also significantly influenced by the interfacial crack length and applied loading.Therefore,this paper could serve as a guideline of several engineering cases with the assistance of computational mechanics.

关键词： Computational mechanics mechanical responses nano/micro thin films

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Nd:YAG water mist laser treatment for giant gestational gingival tumor: A case report

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2024年第11期12卷 1974-1979页

作者： Hong-Yu Chen Jun-Ji Xu Xiu-Lin chang pei Wu Department of Stomatology Women and Children's Hospital Affiliated to Ningbo UniversityNingbo 315012Zhejiang ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND This case of gestational gingival tumor is huge and extremely rare in clinical practice.As the growth location of this gingival tumor is in the upper anterior tooth area,it seriously affects the pregnant woman's speech and food,causing great pain to the patient.The use of Nd:YGA water mist laser to remove the gingival tumor resulted in minimal intraoperative bleeding,minimal adverse reactions,and good postoperative healing,which is worthy of clinical promotion and application.CASE SUMMARY The patient,a pregnant woman,reported a large lump in her mouth on the first day of postpartum treatment.Based on medical history and clinical examination,the diagnosis was diagnosed as gestational gingival tumor.Postoperative pathological biopsy also confirmed this diagnosis.The use of Nd:YAG water mist laser to remove the tumor resulted in minimal intraoperative bleeding,clear surgical field of view,short surgical time,and good postoperative healing.CONCLUSION In comparison to traditional surgery,Nd:YAG water mist laser surgery is minimally invasive,minimizes cell damage,reduces bleeding,ensures a clear field of vision,and virtually eliminates postoperative edema,carbonization,and the risk of cross infection.It has unique advantages in oral soft tissue surgery for pregnant patients.Therefore,the clinical application of Nd:YAG water mist laser for the treatment of gestational gingival tumors is an ideal choice.

关键词： Gestational gingival tumor Nd:YAG water mist laser Granulomatous gingival tumor Minimally invasive dentistry Pregnancy related diseases Oral soft tissue surgery Case report

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