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Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

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Geoscience Frontiers 2023年第4期14卷 21-41页

作者： Zizheng Guo Joaquin Vicente Ferrer Marcel Hürlimann Vicente Medina carol puig-polo Kunlong Yin Da Huang School of Civil and Transportation Engineering Hebei University of Technology300401 TianjinChina Division of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUPC BarcelonaTECH08034 BarcelonaSpain Faculty of Engineering China University of Geosciences430074 WuhanChina Institute of Environmental Science and Geography University of Potsdam14476 PotsdamGermany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 14473 PotsdamGermany College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics Chang’an University710064 Xi’anChina

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity,but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their *** County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover(LULC)and *** used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide *** future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multimodel ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate *** future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller(LCM)integrated into IDRISI Selva software.A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall(antecedent conditions and extreme events)and LULC changes towards two time periods(mid and late XXI century).A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different *** results showed that the magnitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the *** the scenario with a return period of 100 years,the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63%whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54%for the late 21st *** most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming *** magnitude of this change can reach+22.1%(forest)and–9.2%(farmland)from 2010 until 2100,*** found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change,leading to an over decrease in stability over the study *** is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate ***

关键词： Rainfall-induced landslide Susceptibility Climate change Land cover change China

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