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Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 241-258页

作者： Jason P.Dunion Chris Davis Helen Titley Helen Greatrex Munehiko Yamaguchi John Methven Raghavendra Ashrit Zhuo Wang Hui Yu Anne-Claire Fontan Alan Brammer Matthew Kucas Matthew Ford Philippe Papin Fernando Prates Carla Mooney Andrew Kruczkiewicz Paromita Chakraborty Andrew Burton Mark DeMaria Ryan Torn Jonathan L.vigh CIMAS University of Miamiand Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/AOMLFloridaUSA NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory ColoradoUSA UK Met Office ExeterUK Pennsylvania State University PennsylvaniaUSA World Meteorological Organization GenevaSwitzerland University of Reading ReadingUK National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ministry of Earth SciencesNoidaIndia University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign IllinoisUSA Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAShanghaiChina WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme(TCP)GenevaSwitzerland Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University ColoradoUSA Joint Typhoon Warning Center HonoluluUSA MetService New Zealand WellingtonNew Zealand NOAA National Hurricane Center FloridaUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Columbia University New YorkUSA Centre for Climate Research Singapore Meteorological Services SingaporeSingapore CIRA/Colorado State University ColoradoUSA University at Albany-SUNY New YorkUSA Research Applications Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric ResearchColoradoUSA

Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction *** to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios,it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and ***,TCWCs,and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs,but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)found that the“pull-through”of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is ***-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products(TC-PFP)project,which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot *** main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC ***-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases:Phase 1(TC formation and position);Phase 2(TC intensity and structure);and Phase 3(TC related rainfall and storm surge).This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and *** is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information,making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast *** among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best *** collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC ***,forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent,user-friendly ensemble *** consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility,probabilistic forecast pr

关键词： Tropical cyclone Probabilistic Formation Position

超长偏移距资料采集利于全波形反演和改善盐下成像质量

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石油地质科技动态 2014年第1期 21-29页

作者： Denes vigh

波形反演（FWI）是更新地下速度模型和提高其精度的一种有价值的工具。要使其优势得到充分的发挥，尤其是在诸如墨西哥湾盐下勘探目标此类复杂地质环境中，全波形反演要求3D地震资料包含低频成分和长偏移距成分。对于陆上地震测量而言... 详细信息

波形反演（FWI）是更新地下速度模型和提高其精度的一种有价值的工具。要使其优势得到充分的发挥，尤其是在诸如墨西哥湾盐下勘探目标此类复杂地质环境中，全波形反演要求3D地震资料包含低频成分和长偏移距成分。对于陆上地震测量而言，长偏移距的采集比较容易而且成本效益比较高，但对于海上地震测量而言，需要采用海底电缆（OBC）采集技术或多船拖曳等浮电缆采集技术，而这会额外增加采集成本。最近开发出的双环绕激发（dual—coilshooting）多船全方位角采集技术，使海上长偏移距3D地震资料的高效采集成为可能。采用具有全方位角分布和长偏移距（长达14．3km）的合成地震资料和墨西哥湾的真实地震资料对这种方法进行了测试，结果表明其提高速度模型精度、进而改善深度成像可靠性的潜力很大。双环绕激发采集方法所提供的长偏移距和低频成分特别有助于通过全波形反演来改善速度模型的较浅部分。此外，较低的频率和较长的偏移距还使全波形反演能够更新速度模型中的低波数成分（10wwavenumbercomponent），从而减轻反演过程对初始速度模型的敏感性。测试结果表明，与最大偏移距只有8km的宽方位角拖曳等浮电缆（WAZ）采集的地震资料相比，利用由双环绕长偏移距（14．3km）地震资料全波形反演得出的速度场进行处理，最终得出的逆时偏移（RTM）深度图像的品质有了比较明显的改善。未来发展的方向是扩大其适用范围，使之适应新的地震采集设计，进一步增强全波形反演处理的适用性。

关键词：波形反演资料采集偏移距成像质量盐下 3D地震资料初始速度模型方位角分布

STRENGTH COMPLIANCE OF PIPE FITTINGS WITH LARGE OVALITY

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STRENGTH COMPLIANCE OF PIPE FITTINGS WITH LARGE OVALITY

A SUMMARY OF RESEARCH ADVANCES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE FROM 2014-2018

第十八届国际反应堆结构力学大会

作者： Gabor Kovacs Zoltan Zsidi Zoltan vigh Eleonora Pek Olajterv Contracting and Engineering Co. Ltd. Nuclear Engineering Section TH-CAD Ltd. TH-CAD Ltd. Olajterv Ltd. Nucl. Eng. Section

＜正＞ 1 INTRODUCTION OF NECESSITY OF CALCULATION METHOD -causes leading to non circular internal geometry of pipe fittings, -changing the Rule requirements in the Hungarian nuclear industry, -control calculations required by the periodic technical supervision. 2 STEPS OF THE ELABORATION OF TASK 1) Analysing calculation methods of standard ASME III with the consideration of ovality. -examination of detailed strength analysis according to NB-3200,

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 219-225页

作者： Eric A.Hendricks Scott A.Braun Jonathan L.vigh Joseph B.Courtney National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Bureau of Meteorology

This contribution summarizes key research advances on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change from 2014-2018 from the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9). Research advances on intensity change have occurred on many fronts, including improved understanding of the role of vertical wind shear(VWS) and its impact on convection, surface fluxes, ocean eddies, dry/dusty air intrusions, eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs), spiral rainband dynamics, eyewall instability and inner-core mixing, and the mechanisms by which TCs intensify. This summary highlights a number of these important advances. Additionally, some new and emerging topics on TC intensity change have recently been elucidated: the important role of vortex structure on the subsequent intensification rate, the maximum potential intensification rate(MPIR), and the role of upper level outflow on TC intensity change.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity change external influences internal influences

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大型全数据体波动方程偏移新技术

油气地球物理 2004年第3期2卷 56-57页

作者： Denes vigh 李幼云

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三维叠前平面波全波形反演

海洋地质 2010年第3期26卷 14-19页

作者： Denes vigh E．WilliamStarr 张如伟（译）不详广州海洋地质调查局资料处理研究所

众多手段能够获取深度域的速度场，这使得叠前深度偏移技术已经在合适的地区有了几十年的应用，尤其是一些较为成熟的地区，例如墨西哥海湾，但目前的这些方法均依赖于速度模型能否被准确地建立，限制了其不断的发展。随着一些新的宽方... 详细信息

众多手段能够获取深度域的速度场，这使得叠前深度偏移技术已经在合适的地区有了几十年的应用，尤其是一些较为成熟的地区，例如墨西哥海湾，但目前的这些方法均依赖于速度模型能否被准确地建立，限制了其不断的发展。随着一些新的宽方位数据被采集得到，某些地区能够被更好的预测，可以更加精准地获取速度场，采用的先进手段之一就是全波形反演方法。由于叠前地震全波形反演方法具有非线性和非唯一性等特点，使其计算过程非常复杂，包含了高强度的正演模拟计算和波场残差值的反馈传播，使得该方法具有巨大的运算量，尤其针对三维工区。在叠前深度偏移技术中，正演模拟和逆时偏移被广泛地应用于工业生产中，这就要求即使在三维条件下，研究重点也应该是采用何种方法能够得到高精度的速度模型，答案就是全波形反演。在本文中，以合成记录与野外数据为例，验证了时域三维平面波全波形反演方法。

关键词：叠前深度偏移技术波形反演平面波三维反演方法速度模型正演模拟墨西哥海湾