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Predictive models for the assessment of bodily harm

Forensic Sciences Research 2017年第4期2卷 185-191页

作者： Lucia Ordonez Mayan Isabel Martinez Silva carlos represas vazquez Jose Ignacio Munoz Barus Institute of Forensic Science University of Santiago de CompostelaLa CorunaSpain SiDOR Statistical InferenceDecision and Operations ResearchUniversity of VigoPontevedraSpain Department of Forensic Science PathologyGynecology and ObstetricsPediatricsUniversity of Santiago de CompostelaLa CorunaSpain

The Spanish scale to quantify or qualify bodily harm resulting from any unintentional traffic accident prior to 1 January 2016 is established by Royal Legislative Decree(RDL)8/*** scale assigns points to the sequelae,which are converted into Euros using a table that is updated *** objective of this study is to develop a predictive model of sequelae points that will enable the estimation of compensation a short time after the *** will facilitate the calculation of the money reserve and rapid access to compensation for the injured *** conduct this study,we developed a database with information from 999 individuals who had suffered car crash injuries which were evaluated according to the scale contained in RDL 8/2004 for medical *** models based on logistic regression models were designed on this *** choose the best model,we calculated Mallow’s *** use of hurdle models made it possible to predict the points received by an injured party within a relatively short period of time after the *** these points are known,it is a simple matter to calculate the corresponding *** prediction models developed provide an easy way to predict the compensation to be awarded to the injured *** models use days of hospitalization,sex,age and the results of international scales based on the Abbreviated Injury *** variables can be used soon after the occurrence of the crash.

关键词： Forensic science assessment of bodily harm AIS ISS default interest Royal Legislative Decree(RDL)

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