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Characteristics of Climate Change in Northern Xinjiang in 1961–2017, china

Chinese Geographical Science 2020年第2期30卷 249-265页

作者： HE Binbin SHENG Yu cao Wei WU Jichun State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

Xinjiang is located in the core china’s‘Belt and Road’development,and northern Xinjiang is an important region for economic *** recent years,due to the strong influence of global climate change and human disturbance,regional climate instability and ecological-economic-social system sensitivity have *** this paper,seasonal,interannual,interdecadal,spatial,abrupt,and periodic variations of temperature and precipitation in northern Xinjiang were analyzed using daily surface air temperature and precipitation data from 49 meteorological stations during 1961–*** the same time,the driving factors of climate change are *** included linear regression,cumulative anomaly,the Mann-Kendall test,and Morlet wavelet *** results indicated that during the study period,annual mean temperature and annual precipitation increased significantly at rates of 0.35℃/10 yr and 13.25 mm/10 yr,respectively,with abrupt changes occurring in 1994 and *** mean temperature and annual precipitation in all four seasons showed increasing trends,with the maximum increases in winter of 0.42℃/10 yr and 3.95 mm/10 yr,*** general climate in northern Xinjiang showed a trend towards increasingly warm and *** terms of spatial distribution,the temperature and precipitation in high mountainous areas increased the most,while basins areas increased only *** change analysis showed that annual mean temperature and annual precipitation experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm and dry to wet,*** change,economic development and land use change are important factors affecting climate change,and more research should be done in this field.

关键词： northern Xinjiang climate change driving factors temperature precipitation

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Hybrid Methods for Computing the Streamfunction and Velocity Potential for Complex Flow Fields over Mesoscale Domains

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1417-1431页

作者： Jie cao Qin XU Haishan CHEN Shuping MA Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale meteorological Studies(CIMMS) University of OklahomaNorman 73072OklahomaUSA NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman 73069OklahomaUSA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Three types of previously used numerical methods are revisited for computing the streamfunctionψand velocity potentialχfrom the horizontal velocity v in limited *** first type,called the SOR-based method,uses a classical successive over-relaxation(SOR)scheme to computeψ(orχ)first with an arbitrary boundary condition(BC)and thenχ(orψ)with the BC derived from *** second type,called the spectral method,uses spectral formulations to construct the inner part of(ψ,χ)-the inversion of(vorticity,divergence)with a homogeneous BC,and then the remaining harmonic part of(ψ,χ)with BCs from *** third type,called the integral method,uses integral formulas to compute the internally induced(ψ,χ)-the inversion of domain-internal(vorticity,divergence)using the free-space Greenꞌs function without BCs and then the remaining harmonicψ(orχ)with BCs from v minus the internally-induced *** these methods have previously been successfully applied to flows in large-scale and synoptic-scale domains,their accuracy is compromised when applied to complex flows over mesoscale domains,as shown in this *** resolve this problem,two hybrid approaches,the integral-SOR method and the integral-spectral method,are developed by combining the first step of the integral method with the second step adopted from the SOR-based and spectral methods,*** testing these methods on real-case complex flows,the integral-SOR method is significantly more accurate than the integral-spectral method,noting that the latter is still generally more accurate than the three previously-used *** integral-SOR method is recommended for future applications and diagnostic studies of complex flows.

关键词： streamfunction and velocity potential complex flow fields successive over-relaxation method mesoscale study

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Spatiotemporal changes in terrestrial water storage in the beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region from GRACE satellites

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2020年第3期8卷 295-307页

作者： Yingjun Pang Bo Wu Yanping cao Xiaohong Jia Institute of Desertification Studies Chinese Academy of ForestryBeijing100091China Key Laboratory of Desert Ecosystem and Global Change State Administration of Forestry and GrasslandBeijing100091China The College of Environment and Planning of Henan University Kaifeng475004HenanChina

The Sandstorm Source Control Project in and around the beijing-Tianjin region was one of the most important ecological projects in *** water storage(TWS)has important impacts on the ecological construction,agriculture,industry,and resident's *** on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)data,meteorological and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)data,etc.,this paper analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of TWS,groundwater storage,and precipitation,and explored the influencing factors of regional TWS combined with land use and land cover(LULC),social and economic *** most important results were as follows:(1)From 2003 to 2016,TWS in the beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region showed a decreasing trend with a rate of 3.14 mm yr-1.(2)The TWS decline was caused mainly by groundwater overexploitation,but not pre-cipitation variation.(3)Spatiotemporal variations of TWS were related to *** area with the most serious decrease of TWS was mainly located in the southwestern part of the region,where farmland percentage and population density were greater.(4)Reducing the percent of farmland and tree planting,and adding the shrub and grass planting,could be a viable choice for the beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control *** results provide a scientific basis for regional water resource and ecological management.

关键词： Terrestrial water storage beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region Groundwater LULC

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安徽主要粮食作物天气指数保险模型研究与应用

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中国农业气象 2024年第5期45卷 562-570页

作者：杨太明曹雯高锷孙喜波许莹刘园沈光斌安徽省农村综合经济信息中心合肥230031 国元农业保险股份有限公司合肥230031 中国渔业互助保险社北京100080 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所北京100081

气象灾害是农业生产面临的主要风险之一,给农业安全生产带来巨大损失。农业保险是农业保障体系的重要组成部分,是有效分散农业风险或弥补灾害损失的重要救灾手段之一。20世纪90年代后期出现的天气指数保险,因其客观、标准化和流通性强... 详细信息

气象灾害是农业生产面临的主要风险之一,给农业安全生产带来巨大损失。农业保险是农业保障体系的重要组成部分,是有效分散农业风险或弥补灾害损失的重要救灾手段之一。20世纪90年代后期出现的天气指数保险,因其客观、标准化和流通性强等特点在全球引起广泛关注、研究与应用。本文在回顾了国内外天气指数保险技术的发展历程基础上,详细分析了天气指数保险与传统农业保险的差异,以及各自的优势与劣势;以安徽粮食作物(冬小麦、一季中稻、夏玉米)生长过程中特定农业气象灾害的天气指数保险为例,介绍天气指数模型研制与产品开发。通过天气指数农业保险产品在安徽多年实践应用,探索天气指数模型的改进方法,以降低基差风险;并对天气指数保险未来发展进行探讨与展望。

关键词：天气指数保险农业灾害风险评估气候变化

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On the Variation of Divergent Flow： An Eddy-flux Form Equation Based on the Quasi-geostrophic Balance and Its Application

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2017年第5期34卷 599-612页

作者： Shenming FU Jie cao Xingwen JIANG Jianhua SUN International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory of Cloud Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China fnstitute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Chengdu 610072 China

Based on basic equations in isobaric coordinates and the quasi-geostrophic balance,an eddy-flux form budget equation of the divergent wind has been derived. This newly derived budget equation has evident physical significance. It can show the intensity of a weather system,the variation of its flow pattern,and the feedback effects from smaller-scale systems(eddy flows). The usefulness of this new budget equation is examined by calculating budgets for the strong divergent-wind centers associated with the South Asian high,and the strong divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau,during summer(June–August) 2010. The results indicate that the South Asian high significantly interacts with eddy flows. Compared with effects from the mean flow(background circulation),the eddy flows’ feedback influences are of greater importance in determining the flow pattern of the South Asian high. Although the positive divergence centers over the Tibetan Plateau intensify through different mechanisms,certain similarities are also obvious. First,the effects from mean flow are dominant in the rapid intensification process of the positive divergence center. Second,an intense offsetting mechanism exists between the effects associated with the eddy flows’ horizontal component and the effects related to the eddy flows’ convection activities,which weakens the total effects of the eddy flows significantly. Finally,compared with the effects associated with the convection activities of the mean flow,the accumulated effects of the eddy flows’ convection activities may be more favorable for the enhancement of the positive-divergence centers.

关键词： divergent wind quasi-geostrophic balance scale interactions South Asia high

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Evaluating the Algorithm for Correction of the Bright Band Effects in QPEs with S-, C-and X-Band Dual-Polarized Radars

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2019年第1期36卷 41-54页

作者： Yang cao Debin SU Xingang FAN Hongbin CHEN Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Electronic Engineering Chengdu University of Information Technology Sichuan meteorological Disasters Prevention Technology Center china meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding Department of Geography and Geology Western Kentucky University

The bright band, a layer of enhanced radar reflectivity associated with melting ice particles, is a major source of signifi- cant overestimation in quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） based on the Z-R （reflectivity factor-rain rate） relationship. The effects of the bright band on radar-based QPE can be eliminated by vertical profile of reflectivity （VPR） correction. In this study, we applied bright-band correction algorithms to evaluate three different bands （S-, C- and X-band） of dual-polarized radars and to reduce overestimation errors in Z-R relationship-based QPEs. After the reflectivity was corrected by the algo- rithms using average VPR （AVPR） alone and a combination of average VPR and the vertical profile of the copolar correlation coefficient （AVPR＋CC）, the QPEs were derived. The bright-band correction and resulting QPEs were evaluated in eight precipitation events by comparing to the uncorrected reflectivity and rain-gange observations, separately. The overestimation of Z-R relationship-based QPEs associated with the bright band was reduced after correction by the two schemes for which hourly rainfall was less than 5 mm. For the verification metrics of RMSE （root-mean-square error）, RMAE （relative mean absolute error） and RMB （relative mean bias） of QPEs, averaged over all eight cases, the AVPR method improved from 2.28, 0.94 and 0.78 to 1.55, 0.60 and 0.40, respectively, while the AVPR＋CC method improved to 1.44, 0.55 and 0.30, respectively. The QPEs after AVPR＋CC correction had less overestimation than those after AVPR correction, and similar conclusions were drawn for all three different bands of dual-polarized radars.

关键词： dual-polarized radar bright band QPE vertical profile of reflectivity

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Triggering mechanism and dynamic process of water-rock flow in Nanfen waste dump in 2010

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第10期18卷 2565-2579页

作者： cao Chun-hui FENG Ji-li TAO Zhi-gang State Key Laboratory for Deep Geomechanics and Underground Engineering China University of Mining and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering China University of Mining and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China

Water-rock flow is a kind of debris flow with more coarse particles and low viscosity, which occurs in many areas of the world. In this work, the water-rock flow that occurred on May 24, 2010, at Nanfen’s open-pit mine of china was investigated by combining field investigation, meteorological and hydrological survey with numerical simulation to understand its triggering mechanism and dynamic process. The field data shows that the short-term high-intensity rainfall is the most direct inducement to trigger water-rock flow in the waste dump. The loose shallow gravel soil and the V-shaped valley with a certain slope provide the necessary conditions of the occurrence of water-rock flow in the waste dump. Moreover, the possibility criterion of water-rock flow is presented by analyzing the historical rainfall data. In addition, the smoothed particle hydrodynamics(SPH) method was employed to simulate the waterrock flow under the conditions of Newtonian fluid with uniform distribution of water and coarse-grained materials. The simulating results show that the flow distance, velocity, shape, and deposition profile of water-rock flow are in good agreement with the field observation. The present work is beneficial to the risk assessment and mitigation design of water-rock flow disaster in the waste dump.

关键词： Water-rock flow Waste dump Triggering mechanism Smoothed particle hydrodynamics Rainfall intensity

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Accurate prediction of air quality response to emissions for effective control policy design

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2023年第1期123卷 116-126页

作者： Min cao Jia Xing Shovan Kumar Sahu Lei Duan Junhua Li State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex Beijing 100084China

Designing effective control policy requires accurate quantification of the relationship between the ambient concentrations of O3and PM2.5and the emissions of their ***,the challenge is that precursor reduction does not necessarily lead to decreases in the concentrations of O3and PM2.5,which are formed by multiple precursors under complex physical and chemical processes;this calls for the development of advanced model technologies to provide accurate predictions of the nonlinear responses of air quality to *** from the traditional sensitivity analysis and source apportionment methods,the reduced form models(RFMs)based on chemical transport models(CTMs)are able to quantify air quality responses to emissions more accurately and efficiently with lower computational *** we review recent approaches used in RFMs and compare their structures,advantages and disadvantages,performance and *** general,RFMs are classified into three types including(1)sensitivity-based models,(2)models with simplified chemistry and physical processes,and(3)statistical models,with considerable differences in principles,characteristics and application *** prediction of nonlinear responses by RFMs enables more in-depth analysis,not only in terms of real-time prediction of concentrations and quantification of human exposure,health impacts and economic damage,but also in optimizing control ***,data assimilation and emission inventory inversion based on the nonlinear response of concentrations to emissions can also be greatly beneficial to air pollution control *** future studies,improvement in the performance of CTMs is exceedingly crucial to obtain a more reliable baseline for the prediction of air quality *** of models to determine the air quality response to emissions under varying meteorological conditions is also necessary in the context of future climate changes,which pose great challenges to the qua

关键词： Air pollution Nonlinear response Air quality management Reduced form models(RFMs) Precursor emissions

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2000-2023年京津冀蓝天等级日数遥感研究

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应用气象学报 2024年第5期35卷 606-618页

作者：延昊刘桂青曹云莫建飞孙应龙陈紫璇程路国家气象中心北京100081 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所南宁530022

利用2000年12月—2023年12月卫星遥感反演的气溶胶光学厚度逐日资料,结合2023年每日中午地面观测蓝天资料,基于气溶胶光学厚度得到的蓝天等级监测指标,分析2000—2023年京津冀地区蓝天日数的时空变化特征及其变化趋势。结果表明:2001—2... 详细信息

利用2000年12月—2023年12月卫星遥感反演的气溶胶光学厚度逐日资料,结合2023年每日中午地面观测蓝天资料,基于气溶胶光学厚度得到的蓝天等级监测指标,分析2000—2023年京津冀地区蓝天日数的时空变化特征及其变化趋势。结果表明:2001—2023年京津冀蓝天日数年平均值分别为144.2 d·a^(-1)、96.3 d·a^(-1)和119.6 d·a^(-1),北京蓝天日数最多,河北次之,天津最少。空间分布上,河北北部年平均蓝天日数最多,河北南部蓝天日数最少。京津冀蓝天日数具有明显季节变化,冬季和秋季蓝天日数最多,春季次之,夏季最少。2001—2023年京津冀蓝天日数年平均值均呈显著增加趋势,每10年分别增加18.1 d、22.3 d和16.3 d,其中2001—2013年无显著趋势变化,2013—2023年呈增加趋势,每10年分别增加26.9 d、46.5 d和36.4 d。

关键词：蓝天等级气溶胶光学厚度大气污染季节变化年际变化趋势

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基于卫星遥感的兴凯湖水资源特征变化研究

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中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文） 2024年第4期22卷 397-410页

作者：郜玉青曹永强么嘉棋王菲莫凡温振辽宁师范大学地理科学学院辽宁大连116029 天津师范大学京津冀生态文明发展研究院天津300387 自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用中心北京100048 山东科技大学测绘与空间信息学院山东青岛266590

随着全球气候变化和人类活动的加剧,湖泊水资源的动态变化成为生态领域的关键研究课题。湖泊作为地球陆地生态系统中不可或缺的组成部分,其水文特性的变化直接影响着区域水循环、生态平衡和人类福祉。研究湖泊动态变化可为气候系统和人... 详细信息

随着全球气候变化和人类活动的加剧,湖泊水资源的动态变化成为生态领域的关键研究课题。湖泊作为地球陆地生态系统中不可或缺的组成部分,其水文特性的变化直接影响着区域水循环、生态平衡和人类福祉。研究湖泊动态变化可为气候系统和人类活动的影响机制提供参考。兴凯湖是位于气候敏感区且受人类活动显著影响的内陆湖泊,本文旨在通过ICEsat-1/2、Landsat及GRACE等多源卫星遥感数据深入分析其水资源的动态变化,并结合气象数据与土地利用数据探索气候变化和人类活动对湖泊的影响。结果表明:(1)ICEsat-1监测的兴凯湖2003—2009年年内水位呈现周期性波动,年际水位呈上升趋势;ICEsat-2监测的兴凯湖2018—2022年年内年际水位呈下降趋势,多轨数据显示水剖面变化趋势一致。(2)2003—2021年兴凯湖面积以增加为主,东部与南部增加最明显。(3)GRACE反演的兴凯湖水储量变化呈上升趋势,且季节变化为春季>冬季>夏季>秋季。湖泊水体变化特征与降水有较高的相关性。研究结果可为流域的水资源综合利用与制定生态环境保护措施提供理论依据。

关键词： ICEsat-1/2 Landsat GRACE 兴凯湖水资源

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